Our-Erosion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$44

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

281

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$51

1 position

First seen

2026-01-29

last 07-06 13:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

86% 100% +$48

Other

14% 0% $-4

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No		-73	$-49	70¢	$-51	$-3	06-03 09:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$1.3K	768	768	+0	open	—	06-25 18:05
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	6	$723	428	428	+0	open	—	05-20 16:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$688	395	395	+0	No	+$48	05-06 04:30
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	8	$599	579	433	+147	open	—	06-14 21:08
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	13	$528	1,451	1,451	+0	open	—	07-06 13:40
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	3	$494	285	285	+0	open	—	04-22 12:20
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	3	$490	414	414	+0	open	—	04-02 19:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	9	$479	485	485	+0	open	—	04-17 11:48
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	6	$424	296	296	+0	open	—	05-01 19:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$411	285	285	+0	open	—	05-23 08:54
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	16	$395	418	418	+0	open	—	04-20 20:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$382	255	255	+0	open	—	04-07 19:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	11	$356	610	610	+0	open	—	04-22 18:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	4	$325	243	120	+123	open	—	05-22 12:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	2	$298	214	214	+0	open	—	06-02 17:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	6	$297	299	299	+0	open	—	04-23 13:21
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$280	295	295	+0	open	—	04-16 14:48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$256	222	222	+0	open	—	02-28 15:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$236	166	166	+0	open	—	04-07 23:09
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	4	$226	175	175	+0	open	—	04-22 03:23
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	9	$222	295	295	+0	open	—	03-23 08:43
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$219	123	123	+0	open	—	03-18 20:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$213	132	132	+0	open	—	05-02 08:46
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	2	$212	116	116	+0	open	—	06-07 20:43
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 1 334	2	$210	116	116	+0	open	—	03-01 17:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$197	286	286	+0	open	—	04-03 10:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	2	$196	130	130	+0	open	—	04-24 13:18
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$188	138	138	+0	open	—	03-24 06:47
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	2	$165	118	118	+0	open	—	05-29 14:57
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	3	$163	162	162	+0	open	—	02-17 14:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 13:40:26	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	343	1¢	$5	0x7762b1…
06-30 10:55:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x57fdd4…
06-29 10:08:50	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xa278e2…
06-29 08:28:43	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	48	17¢	$8	0xdca6b9…
06-28 18:56:14	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x061c99…
06-26 18:17:19	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	198	14¢	$28	0x688ee8…
06-26 17:52:38	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	198	10¢	$20	0x64ccb0…
06-26 17:16:49	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x0c5c88…
06-26 16:45:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	658	25¢	$164	0xfa7e00…
06-25 18:05:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x6d8923…
06-25 13:32:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x31e428…
06-25 09:38:47	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x80dabe…
06-23 13:21:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	278	18¢	$50	0x4e8aaa…
06-22 23:02:08	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	195	26¢	$50	0xfa4ffd…
06-22 13:16:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	110	93¢	$102	0xe79d10…
06-20 13:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x7e0298…
06-20 09:34:22	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x0ccace…
06-19 14:01:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	152	37¢	$56	0xe14c10…
06-19 09:28:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	152	33¢	$50	0x2d524b…
06-19 09:27:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	374	91¢	$340	0x51447d…
06-17 15:18:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	190	80¢	$152	0xeea6bf…
06-16 12:28:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	184	82¢	$151	0x9a70e1…
06-14 21:22:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x8544a8…
06-14 21:08:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x4295a5…
06-14 20:38:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	167	66¢	$110	0x6d4b98…
06-14 20:23:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x72468f…
06-14 14:46:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x45a048…
06-14 13:55:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	201	52¢	$104	0x7c9384…
06-13 08:33:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	65	46¢	$30	0xf3bc9b…
06-12 13:13:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x6f7e8f…
06-12 06:27:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x423e38…
06-12 06:27:33	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x86007e…
06-11 21:47:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x8e6f40…
06-11 12:06:28	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xa65f66…
06-11 10:52:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	250	5¢	$13	0xb42bac…
06-10 21:19:25	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x01c204…
06-10 12:02:18	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xd1b0dd…
06-10 11:24:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x9bf34e…
06-10 08:06:36	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	125	10¢	$12	0xf14922…
06-08 13:10:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xb8c31c…
06-08 12:33:51	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xdd65e5…
06-07 20:43:42	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	116	96¢	$112	0x178b56…
06-06 04:53:30	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	102	11¢	$12	0xc93286…
06-04 22:06:28	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	102	10¢	$10	0x849f59…
06-03 09:08:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xd76e0d…
06-03 09:08:00	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No	SELL	73	67¢	$49	0x7bfae1…
06-02 17:03:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	214	69¢	$148	0xb30520…
06-02 14:44:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	110	68¢	$75	0x8baa37…
06-02 14:43:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	188	80¢	$150	0xe49ec7…
06-02 14:38:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	70¢	$150	0xefeac6…
05-30 11:25:55	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xebd848…
05-29 14:57:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	SELL	118	56¢	$65	0x10afde…
05-29 14:20:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xa0595b…
05-28 16:22:32	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x6eebc1…
05-28 13:36:31	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xf4320a…
05-27 19:23:46	Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x4a557c…
05-27 10:28:30	Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?	No	BUY	81	93¢	$76	0x3c91b2…
05-26 12:37:21	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x3bb301…
05-26 12:33:06	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xe2239d…
05-26 10:19:15	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	82¢	$26	0x594eeb…
05-26 08:35:41	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x73f1b5…
05-26 06:44:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	73¢	$35	0x5d4ec6…
05-25 19:34:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x2a04a8…
05-23 08:54:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	137	84¢	$115	0x9938b1…
05-22 16:10:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x91fab7…
05-22 16:09:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	27¢	$28	0xc2674f…
05-22 12:41:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	123	93¢	$114	0x8edab0…
05-22 12:40:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0x4c817a…
05-22 12:34:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x6e94da…
05-22 12:34:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	148	65¢	$96	0x23a348…
05-22 12:33:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	120	92¢	$110	0x8b986c…
05-20 20:49:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x8e6d14…
05-20 16:04:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	122	91¢	$111	0xd37155…
05-20 12:03:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xd234a4…
05-19 20:39:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x5e3ee9…
05-18 19:27:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	135	85¢	$116	0x2d1bf9…
05-18 18:57:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xe05f1e…
05-18 12:08:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	170	86¢	$147	0x1632fe…
05-17 16:02:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	170	88¢	$150	0x24e00c…
05-12 05:37:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$43	0x1af511…
05-10 19:00:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xd6717d…
05-06 10:18:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x2268fe…
05-06 04:30:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	395	93¢	$368	0x0b26da…
05-05 15:25:36	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0xf8b2b9…
05-04 15:57:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x220b67…
05-04 10:13:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	93	75¢	$70	0x010a12…
05-04 06:16:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x24519e…
05-02 08:46:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	132	86¢	$113	0x5307e8…
05-01 19:14:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	185	95¢	$176	0xfa9173…
04-29 08:35:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xa8624c…
04-28 13:02:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x6f75ad…
04-27 10:38:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	15¢	$7	0x03398f…
04-24 16:12:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x2071d0…
04-24 13:18:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	130	74¢	$96	0xb2a1f6…
04-24 12:47:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x8d8bbf…
04-24 11:52:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x1d2996…
04-24 11:52:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	88	24¢	$21	0x1e375d…
04-24 07:35:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	111	61¢	$68	0x889d94…
04-23 17:23:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	88	46¢	$40	0xaebabb…
04-23 13:21:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	97	59¢	$57	0x24a619…