Frightened-Tension — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.49K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.4%

Resolved

Trades

253

lifetime

Volume

$29.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 10-25 11:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

81% 5% -$4,361

Crypto

15% 41% -$62

Other

5% 17% -$67

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	20	$6.5K	54,307	54,307	+0	No	+$1,515	02-28 06:18
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	8	$4.9K	3,601	3,601	+0	Yes	-$108	02-28 07:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	7	$2.3K	3,419	3,419	+0	Yes	+$709	02-28 16:40
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	6	$1.1K	7,102	7,102	+0	No	-$75	06-14 19:47
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	7	$661	11,890	0	+11,890	No	-$661	07-24 16:40
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	5	$635	21,895	21,895	+0	No	-$129	02-26 22:22
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	4	$597	18,413	15,961	+2,452	No	-$46	02-24 20:11
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	7	$558	15,076	0	+15,076	No	-$558	01-23 19:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	5	$520	21,613	0	+21,613	Yes	-$520	10-18 02:59
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	8	$465	19,114	19,114	+0	No	-$43	02-24 02:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 10:15 UTC	3	$414	273	269	+4	Up	+$118	02-28 10:18
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	3	$396	27,225	14,659	+12,566	No	-$220	02-25 19:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	3	$392	4,997	0	+4,997	Yes	-$392	06-16 06:38
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	4	$370	23,095	23,095	+0	No	-$320	04-27 07:55
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$339	1,922	1,922	+0	No	-$97	03-04 03:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 17:50 UTC	2	$300	503	0	+503	Up	+$203	02-28 17:52
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	3	$281	2,164	2,164	+0	No	-$228	03-08 05:39
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	4	$272	17,272	17,272	+0	Yes	-$203	10-22 02:19
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	4	$269	21,749	21,749	+0	Yes	-$148	08-01 20:41
will germany strike iran by march 31	2	$267	1,222	1,222	+0	No	-$95	03-03 19:36
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	2	$258	1,920	1,920	+0	open	—	10-21 03:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$251	8,309	0	+8,309	No	-$251	05-21 14:47
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$237	17,740	0	+17,740	No	-$237	06-29 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 07:45 UTC	2	$227	436	0	+436	Down	-$2	03-02 07:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 15:15 UTC	3	$222	468	0	+468	Down	-$222	03-02 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 07:50 UTC	2	$221	376	0	+376	Down	-$221	03-02 07:54
us strikes iran by january 27 2026 458 884 547 617 932	3	$213	18,542	0	+18,542	No	-$213	01-27 19:12
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$210	3,089	0	+3,089	No	-$210	01-31 17:39
bun dor bay 2026 02 28 bay	2	$202	716	0	+716	Yes	+$514	02-28 18:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 15:10 UTC	2	$200	440	0	+440	Up	+$2	03-02 15:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 11:17:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	1,900	8¢	$159	0x28de37…
10-25 11:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0x6fd439…
10-22 02:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x2d95f0…
10-22 02:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x91c0ff…
10-22 02:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xde079a…
10-22 02:19:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	SELL	17,272	0¢	$35	0x2fe303…
10-21 18:53:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	2,483	1¢	$25	0x278529…
10-21 12:41:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	10,307	1¢	$124	0x69cc06…
10-21 03:10:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	4,481	2¢	$88	0x7529e6…
10-21 03:10:23	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,920	5¢	$88	0xe3b994…
10-19 18:53:53	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,920	9¢	$170	0xc9648b…
10-19 18:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x311ae0…
10-19 18:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xaefd70…
10-19 18:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0x124550…
10-19 18:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x6a201b…
10-19 18:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x1a6ca3…
10-19 18:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x4bae5d…
10-18 02:59:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	2,509	2¢	$39	0xc5975b…
10-17 18:52:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	3,491	2¢	$83	0x0b43e1…
10-17 15:53:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	854	3¢	$25	0xccca8d…
10-17 15:50:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	5,845	3¢	$166	0xfa2654…
10-17 12:43:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	8,913	2¢	$207	0x4e76c8…
10-16 11:56:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	1,715	1¢	$17	0x126807…
10-16 07:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x70276c…
10-15 20:51:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	6,621	0¢	$7	0x8b9b53…
10-15 09:37:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	6,621	1¢	$99	0x1b540e…
09-14 09:30:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	No	BUY	7,269	2¢	$181	0x5a27ed…
09-14 09:24:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	298	7¢	$21	0xbed379…
09-01 20:04:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	298	20¢	$60	0x2e9450…
08-07 14:56:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x700a45…
08-07 14:56:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x7e0f8c…
08-07 14:56:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xf90c8a…
08-07 14:56:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x3c1c07…
08-04 22:36:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	SELL	22,477	0¢	$22	0x9e4da6…
08-04 17:12:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	22,477	0¢	$106	0x83f4df…
08-01 20:42:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	188	32¢	$60	0x0ed06f…
08-01 20:41:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	21,749	0¢	$60	0x68830c…
08-01 20:39:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	4,978	1¢	$46	0x61a7bc…
08-01 20:29:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	16,633	1¢	$152	0x03be3c…
08-01 17:33:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	138	8¢	$11	0xddacf4…
08-01 09:02:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	10,836	0¢	$11	0x209ca2…
07-31 15:43:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	10,836	1¢	$160	0x309cac…
07-26 15:28:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	10,238	1¢	$99	0x455007…
07-26 11:52:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	5,678	2¢	$93	0xfbd4fb…
07-24 16:40:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	3,624	3¢	$105	0xa60ee0…
07-24 15:47:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	358	4¢	$15	0xc65c3c…
07-24 15:45:42	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	2,550	4¢	$102	0x8ea4cc…
07-23 09:53:00	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,297	8¢	$104	0xc55853…
07-22 18:31:52	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	686	14¢	$95	0x756d47…
07-22 12:38:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	427	10¢	$43	0xcb2259…
07-22 12:38:06	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10,987	0¢	$43	0xb13e90…
07-21 12:36:39	Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	BUY	2,947	7¢	$198	0x2e5458…
07-20 13:31:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10,987	1¢	$99	0x0b5748…
06-29 20:32:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15,804	1¢	$218	0x03e271…
06-29 20:26:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	139	17¢	$24	0xd02f64…
06-29 20:25:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x72574c…
06-29 20:25:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x7bcdd2…
06-29 20:10:40	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,936	1¢	$18	0xcaa872…
06-29 20:06:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x4be530…
06-29 20:06:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xfb3039…
06-29 20:02:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0x88aa6d…
06-29 20:00:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xda33ca…
06-16 06:38:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,763	3¢	$53	0x0ecb36…
06-16 06:37:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1,495	2¢	$25	0xf63f24…
06-16 06:37:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	625	4¢	$25	0xc835f5…
06-15 14:22:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,970	7¢	$133	0x64a9de…
06-15 05:09:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,263	16¢	$206	0x587a0a…
06-15 04:56:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x56a8ad…
06-15 04:56:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x412117…
06-15 04:55:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x65d2cb…
06-15 04:55:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x553a83…
06-15 02:28:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 02:25 UTC	Up	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xa0ff26…
06-15 02:28:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 02:25 UTC	Up	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x230e56…
06-14 19:47:07	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	SELL	3,669	10¢	$363	0xbb92d6…
06-14 14:25:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Yes	BUY	2,213	9¢	$207	0x373234…
06-14 14:07:40	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	BUY	1,455	11¢	$156	0x833411…
06-14 14:07:10	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	SELL	3,434	5¢	$156	0xc9e587…
06-14 14:06:06	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	BUY	1,101	10¢	$107	0xe9708f…
06-14 14:05:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xae5a24…
06-14 14:02:55	israel closes its airspace by june 14	Yes	BUY	2,332	5¢	$124	0xa3527f…
05-21 14:47:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	2,330	3¢	$74	0xd4e799…
05-21 14:47:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	5,979	3¢	$178	0xc32147…
05-21 14:42:52	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	23,522	0¢	$47	0x762588…
05-18 18:42:02	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	234	1¢	$2	0x68a78e…
05-18 18:41:22	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	23,289	1¢	$126	0xf51d5e…
05-06 06:55:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	Yes	BUY	5,252	1¢	$64	0x6bfc02…
05-06 06:54:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,687	2¢	$64	0xabea59…
05-04 19:29:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,687	3¢	$82	0xee4c02…
05-03 07:46:40	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	SELL	4,316	0¢	$13	0x35d12d…
05-03 07:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	180	6¢	$10	0x415725…
04-27 08:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	95	8¢	$8	0x7eb9f6…
04-27 07:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x7046d1…
04-27 07:55:42	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	SELL	23,095	0¢	$25	0x25250b…
04-15 04:18:02	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8,867	1¢	$97	0x908dcf…
04-12 18:51:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	BUY	4,316	2¢	$108	0x8eb209…
04-12 14:32:33	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6,152	2¢	$111	0x9659a6…
04-12 14:21:11	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8,076	2¢	$137	0x3eecd4…
04-12 14:20:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	117	26¢	$30	0xabd4f6…
04-12 14:19:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	617	3¢	$20	0x295a23…
03-16 04:14:17	Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	BUY	35,657	0¢	$107	0xd2f672…