False-Smoking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.4%

Resolved

365

Trades

3,255

lifetime

Volume

$43.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 06-04 00:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 88% +$96

Other

2% 0% $-75

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev	2	$575	411	411	+0	open	—	05-31 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	1	$300	475	0	+475	open	—	05-31 20:23
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	3	$180	212	0	+212	open	—	05-31 15:44
btc updown 5m 1773639900	1	$114	139	0	+139	open	—	03-16 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	4	$113	118	118	+0	open	—	05-29 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	2	$112	74	74	+0	open	—	05-29 10:55
btc updown 5m 1773640500	1	$111	132	0	+132	open	—	03-16 05:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	2	$110	78	78	+0	open	—	05-29 10:53
btc updown 5m 1773812700	2	$107	127	0	+127	open	—	03-18 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	4	$105	79	79	+0	open	—	05-29 11:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$100	129	0	+129	open	—	05-31 20:15
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$80	25,455	0	+25,455	open	—	06-04 00:35
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	2	$73	125	0	+125	Lucknow Super Giants	$-73	05-07 15:09
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$67	54	54	+0	open	—	05-29 20:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	1	$66	76	0	+76	Down	+$10	05-08 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$65	67	0	+67	Down	+$1	05-09 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$65	69	0	+69	Down	+$3	05-08 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	1	$65	70	0	+70	Down	+$5	05-08 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	4	$62	45	45	+0	open	—	05-23 18:53
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	1	$59	112	0	+112	open	—	05-29 21:36
btc updown 5m 1773648300	2	$55	59	0	+59	open	—	03-16 08:09
btc updown 5m 1773760500	1	$53	75	0	+75	open	—	03-17 15:19
btc updown 5m 1773672300	1	$53	63	0	+63	open	—	03-16 14:48
btc updown 5m 1773753000	1	$53	71	0	+71	open	—	03-17 13:14
btc updown 5m 1773782700	1	$53	59	0	+59	open	—	03-17 21:28
btc updown 5m 1773750600	1	$52	57	0	+57	open	—	03-17 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	6	$52	44	44	+0	open	—	05-23 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	5	$47	44	18	+26	open	—	05-21 17:34
btc updown 5m 1773636000	1	$45	55	0	+55	open	—	03-16 04:44
btc updown 5m 1773638100	1	$45	53	0	+53	open	—	03-16 05:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 00:35:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,793	0¢	$5	0x2100f7…
06-04 00:35:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	552	0¢	$1	0x09b14f…
06-03 23:29:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,584	0¢	$21	0x8ef1be…
06-03 22:58:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,305	0¢	$7	0xbf254e…
06-03 01:19:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,220	0¢	$21	0xf634ad…
06-02 11:26:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0xff3e77…
06-02 11:17:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,700	1¢	$22	0x20653a…
05-31 20:35:58	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev	Andrey Rublev	SELL	411	67¢	$275	0xeb77be…
05-31 20:32:38	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev	Andrey Rublev	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0xf7019f…
05-31 20:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	126	4¢	$5	0xc3518f…
05-31 20:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	475	63¢	$300	0x15468c…
05-31 20:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0x0749fe…
05-31 15:44:26	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY	72	85¢	$61	0x5ea4de…
05-31 15:44:25	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY	133	85¢	$113	0x029c91…
05-31 15:42:57	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x9b865e…
05-29 21:36:30	Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	112	53¢	$59	0xa23083…
05-29 21:32:03	Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x813959…
05-29 20:42:10	Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	54	69¢	$37	0x061633…
05-29 20:41:00	Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x46cce7…
05-29 20:37:48	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x55576d…
05-29 20:37:27	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xcb5ba6…
05-29 17:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	36	52¢	$19	0xcae44f…
05-29 17:51:55	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	BUY	1,510	0¢	$2	0x4f1e00…
05-29 17:51:54	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	SELL	556	0¢	$1	0xc32369…
05-29 17:40:19	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0x70831b…
05-29 11:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0x78f6ce…
05-29 11:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5e9d5a…
05-29 11:52:13	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?	No	BUY	154	26¢	$40	0x849cfb…
05-29 11:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0x5635e3…
05-29 11:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0xfa7c89…
05-29 11:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	77	70¢	$54	0x7f1e2c…
05-29 11:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	77	64¢	$49	0xd55235…
05-29 11:45:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x42bf4d…
05-29 11:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	118	41¢	$48	0x2d9617…
05-29 11:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x58b642…
05-29 11:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xb72965…
05-29 11:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x3be082…
05-29 10:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	74	84¢	$62	0xff643e…
05-29 10:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xca8cd8…
05-29 10:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	78	78¢	$61	0x086d54…
05-29 10:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xaaf07d…
05-23 18:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xfaae87…
05-23 18:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0xe7739f…
05-23 18:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	19	82¢	$15	0x291966…
05-23 18:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x1637a4…
05-23 18:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	26	63¢	$16	0x1177ee…
05-23 18:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x9fefbc…
05-23 18:48:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	23	94¢	$21	0xb49652…
05-23 18:47:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xa3ef67…
05-23 18:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x4d3b51…
05-23 18:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd0485b…
05-23 18:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb67f11…
05-23 18:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5e4009…
05-23 18:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	24	70¢	$17	0xb71ce8…
05-23 18:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x43fcc7…
05-23 18:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0xdc2dbd…
05-23 18:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x780019…
05-23 18:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x639b24…
05-23 18:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x95801f…
05-23 18:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	18	62¢	$11	0x01ae9e…
05-23 18:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xd1c20b…
05-23 18:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	18	57¢	$10	0x4c6c17…
05-23 18:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc2b464…
05-23 18:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xec8138…
05-23 18:21:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x75b293…
05-23 18:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x757160…
05-23 18:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x5ed6cb…
05-23 18:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xa73c68…
05-23 18:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	17	65¢	$11	0x4d3581…
05-23 18:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xe282b8…
05-23 18:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x28ce4e…
05-23 18:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xc49d14…
05-23 18:07:37	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	SELL	27	55¢	$15	0x301339…
05-23 17:23:59	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x0098bf…
05-23 16:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	28	26¢	$7	0x6ef501…
05-23 16:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xd7ee52…
05-23 16:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	87¢	$26	0x1029e3…
05-23 16:34:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xb3480f…
05-23 16:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	80¢	$26	0x6d1dc3…
05-23 16:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x32a08b…
05-23 16:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x13a847…
05-23 16:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	31	87¢	$27	0x1db050…
05-23 16:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	32	80¢	$26	0xed858c…
05-23 15:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x556437…
05-23 15:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	31	20¢	$6	0x599461…
05-23 15:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	33	79¢	$26	0xc4680e…
05-23 15:34:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x6e6579…
05-23 15:19:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x424a55…
05-23 15:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x2d2aaf…
05-23 14:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0x025949…
05-23 14:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x9d9027…
05-23 14:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x1c0415…
05-23 14:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x66d160…
05-23 14:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x2b7b0e…
05-23 14:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	83¢	$25	0x2da6e4…
05-23 12:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xd19d63…
05-23 11:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0x68c679…
05-23 11:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x30a5c0…
05-23 11:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0x194fdb…
05-23 11:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	31	82¢	$26	0xc9e48c…