Sparse-Limo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$145

Unrealized P&L

-$29

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

Trades

121

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$57

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-25 23:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Tech

67% 80% +$60

Other

28% 67% -$224

Politics

5% 67% +$19

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	Yes	+80	$59	62¢	$50	-$10	08-16 12:07
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+36	$17	15¢	$5	-$12	09-05 08:56
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	Yes	+50	$9	4¢	$2	-$7	09-05 08:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	4	$1.5K	785	785	+0	No	+$27	03-08 16:50
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.1K	800	500	+300	No	-$216	06-18 17:35
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	4	$860	450	450	+0	Yes	-$6	07-03 09:22
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	8	$605	510	510	+0	Yes	+$30	06-25 12:38
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	6	$507	585	0	+585	Yes	+$78	05-28 15:24
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	4	$423	233	233	+0	No	-$24	05-11 20:55
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	3	$402	213	213	+0	Yes	+$2	04-04 00:36
will google gemini 3 score at least 70 on the frontiermath benchmark	2	$393	400	0	+400	No	+$7	01-21 23:58
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	2	$364	400	400	+0	No	+$4	06-14 21:28
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	2	$289	308	308	+0	open	—	10-25 23:33
gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	2	$282	150	150	+0	Yes	+$3	07-03 09:22
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	2	$262	150	150	+0	No	+$22	02-17 19:23
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	8	$250	150	150	+0	No	+$2	06-14 21:58
gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	2	$227	120	120	+0	No	+$12	07-03 09:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$215	115	115	+0	Yes	+$15	03-01 09:48
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	1	$193	200	0	+200	No	+$7	02-27 00:28
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	2	$183	116	116	+0	open	—	09-13 21:13
grok 4pt4 released by july 31	2	$141	100	100	+0	Yes	+$3	06-28 09:26
grok 5 released by march 31 2026	1	$141	150	0	+150	No	+$9	02-27 00:35
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	4	$139	100	100	-0	Yes	+$7	06-25 09:03
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$139	100	100	+0	Yes	+$17	02-08 22:13
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	2	$137	82	82	+0	No	+$16	01-27 19:54
will any openai gpt model score at least 45 on the frontiermath exam	1	$134	150	0	+150	Yes	+$16	02-27 00:37
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	2	$125	100	100	+0	Yes	+$3	06-12 19:20
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	3	$124	70	70	+0	Yes	+$16	09-03 16:02
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	2	$123	75	75	+0	Yes	+$13	06-03 21:56
grok 4pt4 released by june 30	1	$107	180	0	+180	No	-$107	06-05 19:46
gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	1	$100	117	0	+117	Yes	+$17	03-05 17:00
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	1	$99	0	100	-100	No	-$1	05-31 20:10
grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	1	$94	100	0	+100	Yes	+$6	02-16 11:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:33:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	308	45¢	$139	0x22c622…
10-22 21:23:26	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	308	49¢	$150	0x340a1b…
09-13 21:13:25	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	116	89¢	$103	0xacfd4f…
09-13 14:11:46	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	116	69¢	$80	0x938a4d…
09-05 08:56:33	will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	Yes	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0xb707b0…
09-05 08:56:30	will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0xc2676f…
09-05 08:56:28	will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$3	0xeee488…
09-05 08:56:10	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	48¢	$17	0xbd8700…
09-03 16:02:15	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xece870…
09-03 10:07:25	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	82¢	$66	0x2c6433…
09-03 09:22:22	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	68¢	$48	0xe2f083…
08-16 12:07:22	will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6ad31d…
08-16 12:07:21	will the highest score achieved by a spacexai grok model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 45 or higher 20260723191456650	Yes	BUY	75	74¢	$55	0xcdb64d…
08-16 12:03:22	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	BUY	48	77¢	$37	0xfdf82b…
08-16 12:03:22	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x56b092…
08-01 22:04:21	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	BUY	95	93¢	$88	0x269aa2…
07-03 09:22:52	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	98¢	$294	0x2ea945…
07-03 09:22:20	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	Yes	SELL	150	95¢	$143	0x1cddb7…
07-03 09:21:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x6a69a8…
07-01 10:23:41	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0xd81b76…
07-01 10:19:37	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0x8aeace…
07-01 10:18:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0xf8f58b…
06-28 09:28:20	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x658460…
06-28 09:27:59	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xf89a33…
06-28 09:26:56	grok 4pt4 released by july 31	Yes	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x389bb2…
06-26 09:42:07	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	88¢	$133	0x00a6fb…
06-25 12:38:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	196	53¢	$103	0x81db71…
06-25 12:37:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	71	55¢	$39	0xcd873c…
06-25 11:55:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	30	67¢	$20	0x10f73c…
06-25 11:45:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	52	67¢	$35	0x936901…
06-25 09:03:05	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0xeff046…
06-25 09:03:04	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	5	71¢	$3	0xc3ea62…
06-25 09:03:02	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	78	74¢	$58	0x518c63…
06-22 10:19:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	350	49¢	$171	0x8d071f…
06-18 17:35:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	83¢	$250	0xd0fae7…
06-14 21:58:18	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	96	84¢	$81	0x08f229…
06-14 21:49:31	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x5b5eb5…
06-14 21:47:54	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x20772d…
06-14 21:47:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0xb44e79…
06-14 21:44:54	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x7f2fc6…
06-14 21:42:54	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x31dd10…
06-14 21:30:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0xda2f61…
06-14 21:28:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	No	SELL	400	46¢	$184	0x9a7551…
06-14 08:38:18	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xcfa54c…
06-14 08:33:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	No	BUY	400	45¢	$180	0x0049b5…
06-14 08:31:03	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0x10f2ce…
06-14 07:30:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179	Yes	SELL	160	75¢	$120	0x527ebf…
06-13 22:35:09	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	BUY	150	73¢	$110	0x031d49…
06-13 22:34:34	Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x275dd3…
06-13 22:33:27	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	150	82¢	$124	0xc2e298…
06-13 13:56:21	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	79¢	$124	0xb4cc19…
06-12 19:20:12	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xa6db50…
06-10 15:44:19	grok 4pt4 released by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xdcd6e9…
06-10 13:24:37	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	94¢	$77	0xe3c43c…
06-10 12:51:55	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	94¢	$64	0x50235e…
06-08 22:09:31	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	90¢	$70	0x8b8f36…
06-07 12:34:15	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	81¢	$93	0x0b81d3…
06-05 19:46:46	grok 4pt4 released by june 30	Yes	BUY	180	60¢	$107	0x8ea17b…
06-03 21:56:16	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	75	91¢	$68	0x3bbfe8…
05-31 20:10:07	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xf04b35…
05-28 21:06:50	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xd08c14…
05-28 15:38:56	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x0faabd…
05-28 15:24:07	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0x89185d…
05-28 15:24:05	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x6c35ef…
05-28 15:23:44	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	387	86¢	$333	0xa90a7f…
05-28 15:23:09	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x873071…
05-28 14:31:42	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x330ede…
05-28 14:31:32	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x2331d0…
05-28 14:27:23	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xb8996c…
05-28 14:27:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	448	79¢	$353	0x475eac…
05-28 14:27:20	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	79¢	$39	0xbbd8cc…
05-28 14:24:46	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	BUY	75	74¢	$55	0x58d674…
05-28 14:22:40	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x12a15d…
05-11 20:55:48	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	233	85¢	$199	0x2cbc38…
05-11 09:49:48	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x3dc300…
05-11 09:48:19	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x501354…
05-11 09:48:03	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	95¢	$32	0x94ab5d…
05-11 09:46:43	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xe80801…
05-11 09:45:03	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x8b49ba…
04-04 00:36:45	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	95¢	$188	0x0d3734…
04-03 18:42:39	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x2b2614…
04-03 12:13:59	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xd2bbc5…
04-03 12:10:59	Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0xd7f074…
03-08 16:50:55	will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	No	SELL	785	96¢	$756	0x403f4a…
03-07 01:48:47	Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x7b431b…
03-05 17:00:31	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	Yes	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0xd9a702…
03-01 09:48:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0x4e274c…
03-01 01:38:23	Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xffd3dd…
02-28 20:55:21	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x785239…
02-28 03:27:47	Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0xebb174…
02-27 00:37:46	will any openai gpt model score at least 45 on the frontiermath exam	Yes	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0x5f3322…
02-27 00:35:00	grok 5 released by march 31 2026	No	BUY	150	94¢	$141	0x3718a3…
02-27 00:28:20	Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$193	0xbb9589…
02-27 00:24:56	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x808679…
02-18 15:45:06	will artemis ii launch by march 31	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x4edb78…
02-18 15:40:24	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	50	93¢	$47	0x0195c1…
02-17 19:23:17	will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	No	SELL	150	95¢	$142	0x7a06a4…
02-16 11:28:27	grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd29a0a…
02-12 14:13:57	grok 4pt20 released by april 20 988 375 998 452	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xdaea25…
02-08 22:13:31	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xf9232d…