Vague-Concrete — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.52K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.70K

Hit rate

35.3%

Resolved

Trades

140,928

lifetime

Volume

$457.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$5.80K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-30 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

33% — —

Other

30% 40% $-539

Sports

22% 33% $-977

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 4319 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No		+7,011	$7,506	83¢	$5.8K	$-1,701	06-30 13:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2,179	$53.3K	6,484,429	5,905,526	+578,903	open	—	04-07 23:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	652	$38.0K	3,008,571	2,375,447	+633,124	open	—	06-03 19:15
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2,434	$27.1K	5,270,355	3,958,541	+1,311,814	open	—	03-18 17:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	750	$23.5K	2,369,134	3,118,542	-749,408	open	—	04-09 00:36
netanyahu out by march 31 854	586	$15.9K	851,468	974,745	-123,277	open	—	03-30 03:52
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9,659	$15.7K	1,610,465	1,393,152	+217,313	open	—	04-21 16:42
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8,369	$15.6K	1,595,407	1,475,458	+119,950	open	—	04-19 15:47
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1,461	$14.9K	3,222,433	3,231,888	-9,455	open	—	03-18 17:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	190	$14.8K	4,902,796	4,900,000	+2,796	open	—	06-17 20:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	3,313	$14.1K	1,355,263	1,220,554	+134,709	open	—	04-12 07:31
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	17	$13.7K	7,936	7,936	+0	open	—	06-25 01:34
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5,584	$13.6K	1,097,969	980,471	+117,498	open	—	04-25 07:40
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8,148	$13.6K	1,595,435	1,244,962	+350,472	open	—	04-19 16:16
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8,636	$11.2K	1,325,513	1,061,593	+263,920	No	$-664	04-20 07:39
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	18	$10.5K	10,011	3,000	+7,011	open	—	06-30 13:25
Knicks vs. 76ers	68	$10.5K	12,040	12,040	+0	Knicks	$-843	05-08 22:09
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	3,032	$10.3K	1,133,239	1,096,267	+36,972	open	—	04-13 03:35
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	105	$10.0K	5,288	5,287	+0	open	—	06-09 05:40
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1,193	$7.3K	1,326,806	1,275,200	+51,606	open	—	03-11 10:14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	766	$6.9K	1,155,274	1,155,274	+0	open	—	04-25 18:55
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7,023	$6.8K	1,111,518	1,004,157	+107,361	open	—	04-20 03:48
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	10,844	$6.6K	1,046,911	999,288	+47,623	No	+$467	04-24 02:31
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4,290	$6.5K	818,063	831,379	-13,315	open	—	04-17 18:58
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	10,131	$6.3K	944,210	766,476	+177,733	open	—	04-14 08:53
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	13	$6.1K	5,951	3,000	+2,951	open	—	06-16 18:32
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	8,455	$6.0K	783,975	862,939	-78,964	No	+$275	04-28 10:14
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	260	$6.0K	3,005	3,005	+0	open	—	06-28 14:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	2	$5.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	06-17 08:34
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	9,054	$5.5K	818,332	788,517	+29,816	open	—	04-21 08:54
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	1,698	$5.4K	999,941	969,792	+30,149	open	—	03-04 16:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 13:25:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,918	0x5aac9d…
06-30 13:07:26	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x5f3400…
06-30 11:00:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	2,316	94¢	$2,189	0x2f9f63…
06-30 10:59:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	131	95¢	$124	0xb6328c…
06-30 10:59:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x7adc35…
06-30 10:40:50	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	63	91¢	$57	0x75ec5c…
06-30 10:40:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x4c8710…
06-30 10:38:52	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x303e05…
06-30 10:38:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	800	91¢	$726	0x49684c…
06-30 10:32:50	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1,601	89¢	$1,425	0x62e26c…
06-30 06:55:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	388	50¢	$194	0x676222…
06-30 06:53:14	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0x36979e…
06-30 06:53:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	2,227	50¢	$1,118	0x84e6cc…
06-30 06:50:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	364	53¢	$193	0xf54ccf…
06-29 02:45:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1,326	83¢	$1,100	0x2f64a5…
06-29 02:45:08	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	83¢	$830	0x2e7112…
06-29 02:45:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	41	83¢	$34	0xf03b58…
06-29 02:08:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	633	83¢	$525	0x88414d…
06-28 14:09:49	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8511b1…
06-28 14:05:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x525c84…
06-28 14:02:05	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x480d55…
06-28 14:01:46	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdd708d…
06-28 14:01:01	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x622014…
06-28 14:00:02	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf6289b…
06-28 13:59:34	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbf0f78…
06-28 13:58:50	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0xc5f3da…
06-28 13:58:46	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	256	100¢	$256	0x89d4f9…
06-28 13:56:44	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5ac1cd…
06-28 13:56:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf57f01…
06-28 13:56:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc7bd8e…
06-28 13:56:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x94dcc2…
06-28 13:56:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5260f4…
06-28 13:56:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x416efd…
06-28 13:56:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x068990…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfd71e4…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe728fb…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd71fcf…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc925a4…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc42a29…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbecd31…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa3b48f…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa1162b…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9dbf0e…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x54f72a…
06-28 13:56:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x194f78…
06-28 13:56:34	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xec2521…
06-28 13:56:23	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x357f04…
06-28 13:56:04	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xce8710…
06-28 13:54:37	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x04b2a9…
06-28 13:54:16	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x71cd5b…
06-28 13:54:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdc2bf6…
06-28 13:54:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x09a0fc…
06-28 13:53:38	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbb551b…
06-28 13:53:02	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,019	100¢	$2,017	0xcd004f…
06-28 13:50:35	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9d8f6e…
06-28 13:50:08	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7e8117…
06-28 13:50:07	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbde977…
06-28 13:49:56	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc894ba…
06-28 13:49:08	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x3dbde2…
06-28 13:47:32	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xe05264…
06-28 13:47:22	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x272563…
06-28 13:47:02	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x17a43d…
06-28 13:46:59	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xee393e…
06-28 13:46:29	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xfd3bc5…
06-28 13:46:20	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x8dccc0…
06-28 13:45:56	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb2c7b1…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf49d66…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf150e9…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe14519…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdb80dd…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd6e751…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xca8463…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb08d77…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x99be2c…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x885fb1…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5951ee…
06-28 13:45:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2a8c34…
06-28 13:45:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc66f72…
06-28 13:45:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7555a6…
06-28 13:45:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5fc5a8…
06-28 13:45:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x514306…
06-28 13:45:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3e9bf9…
06-28 13:45:52	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3422e1…
06-28 13:44:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xbad662…
06-28 13:42:49	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3e3e5b…
06-28 13:42:40	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb8c4c8…
06-28 13:40:58	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0xa858fd…
06-28 13:39:49	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x290737…
06-28 13:39:29	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc41fd8…
06-28 13:38:07	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0xa08aba…
06-28 13:35:19	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x2aa019…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfe62b6…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd5a106…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc84786…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa44d6f…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8d6193…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x855cd0…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7afdae…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6ebd46…
06-28 13:35:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5c72c3…