Vague-Concrete — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.82K

Unrealized P&L

+$707

Hit rate

43.3%

Resolved

114

Trades

231,812

lifetime

Volume

$657.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$292

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 08-14 16:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

31% 53% -$2,854

Sports

30% 50% -$4,238

Politics

26% 54% +$1,352

Crypto

11% 60% -$2,195

Tech

3% 100% +$115

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-116,758	-$934	0¢	$-292	+$642	05-12 18:53
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+0	-$65	0¢	$0	+$65	05-26 11:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2,179	$53.3K	6,484,429	5,905,526	+578,903	Yes	+$1,514	04-07 23:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	785	$45.7K	3,474,136	2,982,167	+491,969	No	-$1,625	06-03 19:15
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	34	$44.2K	27,275	27,275	+0	Yes	-$8	06-11 18:04
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2,434	$27.1K	5,270,355	3,958,541	+1,311,814	No	-$2,035	03-18 17:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	750	$23.5K	2,369,134	3,118,542	-749,408	Yes	+$2,635	04-09 00:36
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	21	$17.5K	10,011	10,011	+0	No	-$502	07-03 21:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	165	$16.6K	8,375	8,375	+0	Yes	+$76	06-30 14:01
netanyahu out by march 31 854	586	$15.9K	851,468	974,745	-123,277	No	+$803	03-30 03:52
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9,659	$15.7K	1,610,465	1,393,152	+217,313	No	-$172	04-21 16:42
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8,369	$15.6K	1,595,407	1,475,458	+119,950	No	+$402	04-19 15:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	192	$15.0K	4,903,000	4,900,000	+3,000	Yes	-$158	06-17 20:55
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1,461	$14.9K	3,222,433	3,231,888	-9,455	No	-$54	03-18 17:49
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	3,313	$14.1K	1,355,263	1,220,554	+134,709	No	-$1,299	04-12 07:31
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	17	$13.7K	7,936	7,936	+0	No	-$811	06-25 01:34
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5,584	$13.6K	1,097,969	980,471	+117,498	No	-$189	04-25 07:40
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8,148	$13.6K	1,595,435	1,244,962	+350,472	No	-$412	04-19 16:16
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8,636	$11.2K	1,325,513	1,061,593	+263,920	No	-$664	04-20 07:39
Knicks vs. 76ers	68	$10.5K	12,040	12,040	+0	Knicks	-$843	05-08 22:09
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	3,032	$10.3K	1,133,239	1,096,267	+36,972	No	-$1,014	04-13 03:35
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	105	$10.0K	5,288	5,287	+0	No	+$5	06-09 05:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	3,479	$8.4K	1,291,022	1,291,022	+0	No	+$675	05-19 12:15
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1,193	$7.3K	1,326,806	1,275,200	+51,606	No	-$64	03-11 10:14
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	21	$7.1K	7,474	7,474	+0	Yes	-$7,115	07-07 19:36
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	28	$7.0K	7,000	7,000	+0	Yes	+$3	06-14 15:23
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	766	$6.9K	1,155,274	1,155,274	+0	No	-$662	04-25 18:55
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7,023	$6.8K	1,111,518	1,004,157	+107,361	No	+$323	04-20 03:48
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	10,844	$6.6K	1,046,911	999,288	+47,623	No	+$467	04-24 02:31
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4,290	$6.5K	818,063	831,379	-13,315	No	+$755	04-17 18:58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	17	$6.4K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$170	06-16 18:32
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	10,131	$6.3K	944,210	766,476	+177,733	No	-$384	04-14 08:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 16:40:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	178,290	0¢	$713	0x75dfbf…
08-14 13:55:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$8	0x208d79…
08-14 13:33:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x215493…
08-14 13:33:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x183a3c…
08-14 12:46:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,005	0¢	$8	0xd16855…
08-14 12:35:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x47d27d…
08-14 12:34:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	330	0¢	$1	0x4588bc…
08-14 12:33:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	604	0¢	$2	0x07cc60…
08-14 12:33:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x591fe0…
08-14 12:30:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	258	0¢	$1	0x986023…
08-14 12:30:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	285	0¢	$1	0x1100fb…
08-14 12:15:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0x3a0b5e…
08-14 12:03:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$40	0x205a53…
08-14 11:21:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	705	0¢	$3	0x178851…
08-14 11:20:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x2419ee…
08-14 11:15:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	306	0¢	$1	0xac33c0…
08-14 10:29:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,254	0¢	$5	0xe5503d…
08-14 10:25:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33,003	0¢	$132	0x18d64e…
08-14 09:29:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x61d6b5…
08-14 09:24:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x9fefbe…
08-14 09:14:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,140	0¢	$9	0x89f3ad…
08-14 08:43:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xf1c3e8…
08-14 08:23:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x64599e…
08-14 08:12:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,823	0¢	$11	0x42c1a2…
08-14 07:52:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,094	0¢	$16	0x9fdcd9…
08-14 07:23:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xff77e9…
08-14 07:04:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,002	0¢	$16	0xb8e832…
08-14 06:59:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,730	0¢	$19	0xfc6195…
08-14 06:49:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5b79af…
08-14 06:11:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x0f7b99…
08-14 06:10:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xfbf7b8…
08-14 06:02:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x60233d…
08-14 05:26:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	349	0¢	$1	0xd0efa8…
08-14 05:24:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x367e36…
08-14 05:09:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	630	0¢	$3	0x18d9fe…
08-14 03:56:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x8420d0…
08-14 03:56:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8a66c7…
08-14 03:48:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xda65ca…
08-14 03:48:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	122	0¢	$0	0xa856e9…
08-14 03:46:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	41	0¢	$0	0x6e483c…
08-14 03:45:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	68	0¢	$0	0xd4a03a…
08-14 03:44:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x8462f1…
08-14 03:42:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0x517e46…
08-14 03:42:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	264	0¢	$1	0x169d22…
08-14 03:41:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x968709…
08-14 03:41:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x839caf…
08-14 03:41:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xacb0cb…
08-14 03:40:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x801ab7…
08-14 03:40:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x32dd2b…
08-14 03:40:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xd522e8…
08-14 03:40:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x80b9f0…
08-14 03:40:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	203	0¢	$1	0x0c4e21…
08-14 03:40:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xacd448…
08-14 03:40:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x32fd13…
08-14 03:40:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x749eaa…
08-14 03:40:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x49d3aa…
08-14 03:39:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xc7ab50…
08-14 03:39:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x5fc1fa…
08-14 03:39:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	165	0¢	$1	0x2830e9…
08-14 03:39:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfdb1ec…
08-14 03:39:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf2238e…
08-14 03:39:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x0fad7a…
08-14 03:39:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x00a152…
08-14 03:39:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x8d525c…
08-14 03:39:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x04f84f…
08-14 03:39:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xf22dac…
08-14 03:39:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xdf4627…
08-14 03:39:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xc9a6b2…
08-14 03:39:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x43eec1…
08-14 03:39:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x88ed61…
08-14 03:39:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xaf23bd…
08-14 03:39:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xe9c252…
08-14 03:39:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x054e59…
08-14 03:39:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x73c9b0…
08-14 03:38:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xc1bc9f…
08-14 03:38:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xf2cb56…
08-14 03:38:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xbd5e88…
08-14 03:38:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x5d2344…
08-14 03:38:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x165690…
08-14 03:38:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xcfc2eb…
08-14 03:38:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2bb3b0…
08-14 03:38:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x9bc497…
08-14 03:38:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xac4832…
08-14 03:38:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x4e3c51…
08-14 03:38:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x0a08d3…
08-14 03:38:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x067830…
08-14 03:38:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xbdd252…
08-14 03:38:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x6507c3…
08-14 03:38:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x6bfe96…
08-14 03:37:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x239571…
08-14 03:37:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2e0934…
08-14 03:37:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x5fdb15…
08-14 03:37:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x926961…
08-14 03:37:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x3729e8…
08-14 03:37:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xe6f8d1…
08-14 03:37:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x99159e…
08-14 03:37:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xed6223…
08-14 03:37:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xbb42c8…
08-14 03:37:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xf800f0…
08-14 03:37:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xa021ff…