Gifted-Sponsor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.94K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

22,470

Trades

38,987

lifetime

Volume

$92.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-31 19:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 167 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 62% -$1,814

Other

3% 72% -$119

Politics

1% 22% -$16

Tech

0% 50% -$12

Sports

0% 50% +$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 186 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes		+0	$0	1¢	$0	$0	10-13 05:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 16:15 UTC	2	$658	556	548	+9	Up	+$154	02-02 16:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 23:15 UTC	28	$217	313	0	+313	Up	+$96	02-16 23:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 13:50 UTC	5	$171	111	109	+2	Down	+$45	02-25 13:52
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 22:15 UTC	2	$169	108	106	+2	Up	+$43	02-03 22:29
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:40 UTC	4	$164	106	106	+0	Up	-$36	03-02 18:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 11:50 UTC	11	$162	147	145	+2	Up	+$69	02-12 11:53
Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	5	$146	157	157	+0	open	—	10-10 11:40
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	3	$146	100	100	+0	open	—	10-23 20:13
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	4	$138	79	79	+0	open	—	10-31 19:03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 35%-40%?	3	$130	422	127	+295	open	—	10-30 22:31
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 15:30 UTC	1	$128	256	0	+256	Up	+$128	02-02 15:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 21:45 UTC	1	$128	248	0	+248	Up	-$128	02-06 21:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 22:30 UTC	35	$124	74	74	+1	Up	+$22	02-17 22:35
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	6	$124	100	100	+0	Yes	-$2	10-25 08:43
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	4	$120	100	100	+0	open	—	10-26 13:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 09:10 UTC	2	$115	77	76	+1	Up	+$37	02-12 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 16:25 UTC	3	$114	112	93	+18	Down	+$17	02-12 16:26
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:25 UTC	6	$103	54	54	+0	Up	+$3	03-02 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:00 UTC	2	$103	54	54	+0	Down	+$3	03-02 18:02
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:00 UTC	2	$103	54	54	+0	Down	+$3	03-02 18:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:05 UTC	2	$102	53	53	+0	Up	+$2	03-02 18:09
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:15 UTC	5	$102	53	53	+0	Down	+$2	03-02 18:18
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:00 UTC	2	$102	53	53	+0	Down	+$2	03-02 18:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:30 UTC	4	$102	53	53	+0	Up	+$2	03-02 18:33
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:50 UTC	3	$102	53	53	+0	Down	+$2	03-02 18:54
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:00 UTC	7	$102	53	53	+0	Down	+$2	03-02 18:03
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:25 UTC	2	$102	53	53	+0	Up	+$2	03-02 18:30
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:30 UTC	4	$102	53	53	+0	Up	+$2	03-02 18:33
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:05 UTC	2	$102	53	53	+0	Up	+$2	03-02 18:09
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 18:05 UTC	3	$102	53	53	+0	Up	+$2	03-02 18:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 02:10:13	Will the median home value in Miami be between $830,000 and $851,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0xc9921c…
10-31 19:03:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0x655d0f…
10-31 18:46:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x07c2a5…
10-31 18:42:16	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x0bbafa…
10-30 22:31:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	87	25¢	$21	0x4f76c0…
10-30 22:23:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	40	27¢	$11	0x6190de…
10-30 22:22:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	422	23¢	$98	0x0d4933…
10-30 21:33:21	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xbc9ef6…
10-30 21:29:51	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0xb93685…
10-30 17:48:01	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	60	51¢	$31	0xe6b002…
10-30 15:59:16	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $9.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	49¢	$29	0x1585df…
10-30 11:44:21	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x95aefc…
10-30 11:31:42	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x21e5a9…
10-30 09:20:13	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x041461…
10-30 08:33:25	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $9.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	49¢	$29	0x4bdb5e…
10-30 03:23:49	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Charizard?	No	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0x7e0b87…
10-29 17:39:47	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x7e2459…
10-29 08:01:35	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	46¢	$14	0x6dc927…
10-29 01:36:46	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc6444c…
10-28 18:15:07	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x7bab19…
10-28 13:30:55	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x559b9d…
10-28 13:30:55	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x5536f9…
10-28 12:37:20	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xe2a804…
10-28 04:37:50	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xf0aa53…
10-27 13:50:30	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $168 in October?	Yes	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x97f5d5…
10-26 13:15:23	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%?	No	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x8ad39f…
10-26 13:15:05	Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	30	13¢	$4	0x80b67e…
10-26 13:09:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	41	60¢	$25	0x89e4fe…
10-26 09:55:21	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	9	60¢	$5	0xa9d842…
10-26 09:55:21	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x99fbf7…
10-26 00:22:00	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x478284…
10-26 00:00:03	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x87aa9a…
10-26 00:00:03	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x30a0b3…
10-25 16:26:50	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x6c95b1…
10-25 16:26:02	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4024af…
10-25 08:43:33	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x14799e…
10-25 08:42:35	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0xb0ea0c…
10-25 08:07:35	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xff5a6d…
10-25 08:07:35	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0x9a01be…
10-25 06:50:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x1be7f2…
10-25 06:34:53	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0x4ed1c6…
10-25 04:57:54	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	61¢	$36	0xe0597e…
10-25 00:10:05	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x094274…
10-24 13:58:54	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x006e3e…
10-24 13:04:12	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xc46b5b…
10-23 20:13:50	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	No	SELL	23	71¢	$16	0xab6c18…
10-23 19:14:08	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x7dfb89…
10-23 09:28:11	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	No	SELL	77	73¢	$56	0x18b063…
10-23 04:36:26	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x08ce36…
10-22 20:13:50	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0xb37397…
10-22 13:09:02	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0xebb181…
10-22 03:55:21	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0xdeb97b…
10-22 00:08:48	Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x0406cd…
10-21 23:52:26	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%?	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xbdcdc7…
10-21 23:48:53	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0xd3d87b…
10-21 22:26:21	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x861ff7…
10-20 18:08:15	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd6236d…
10-20 05:03:05	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Snorlax?	No	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0x381725…
10-20 04:35:47	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Snorlax?	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x132529…
10-20 03:57:54	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Snorlax?	No	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xecd145…
10-20 01:57:05	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Charizard?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$3	0x418a1a…
10-20 01:25:23	will logan paul pull a reverse holographic charizard	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x5214a0…
10-19 16:49:30	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 in October?	No	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x3abd2d…
10-19 14:17:24	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 in October?	No	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x83a0e3…
10-18 15:20:02	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $168 in October?	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xae36e5…
10-18 07:11:44	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x064353…
10-18 07:11:39	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0x2307a7…
10-18 07:11:35	Will MGM Resorts (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x32bf60…
10-17 22:29:11	mgm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 10 28 2026 0pt18	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0xfcf04f…
10-17 08:49:44	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Yes	SELL	21	44¢	$9	0xb0fa62…
10-17 02:30:44	will the republicans win sedgwick county in the kansas senate race in 2026	Yes	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0x028d93…
10-17 02:14:32	will the republicans win sedgwick county in the kansas senate race in 2026	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0xde8239…
10-16 16:10:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x6cc930…
10-16 15:55:33	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x3ffc28…
10-16 14:56:33	Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xf53f28…
10-16 09:48:16	no change in bank of england interest rates after december 2026 meeting	No	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x2b232d…
10-15 17:11:40	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	21	46¢	$9	0x294629…
10-15 13:44:11	will project hail mary be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x258a90…
10-15 12:53:34	will project hail mary be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xf84d3b…
10-15 12:53:17	will project hail mary be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x193afd…
10-15 12:36:19	will project hail mary be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	12	46¢	$6	0x423a1f…
10-14 16:33:21	will forgotten island be nominated for best animated feature film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf134af…
10-14 13:01:03	will russia capture orikhiv by june 30 2027	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x50dba6…
10-14 10:44:16	will bank of america bac q3 provision for credit losses be above 1pt4b	No	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0x449150…
10-13 14:42:05	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x101d30…
10-13 05:22:27	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x28e6c5…
10-13 05:04:45	will russia capture orikhiv by june 30 2027	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xc74b69…
10-13 02:32:39	turkey military action against yemen by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xd46378…
10-13 02:25:56	turkey military action against yemen by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xf90e0c…
10-12 22:24:11	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xf9bf07…
10-12 18:13:53	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0xf6a0d2…
10-12 18:13:53	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0xe43fb0…
10-12 15:55:53	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xb1ad79…
10-12 15:35:02	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x636383…
10-12 13:06:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xdeb2d0…
10-12 11:46:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 270 and 280 million views on week 2?	No	SELL	24	71¢	$17	0x0c8789…
10-12 07:44:01	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x342acb…
10-12 02:42:09	Will MrBeast's next video get between 270 and 280 million views on week 2?	No	BUY	24	71¢	$17	0xa30c55…
10-11 22:54:20	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xc6cc1e…
10-11 20:09:00	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x3dd480…