Growing-Distortion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

Trades

413

lifetime

Volume

$1.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 06-28 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 41% $-22

Politics

14% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 108 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	7	$92	36,400	0	+36,400	open	—	04-30 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	5	$72	85	68	+16	open	—	05-03 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	10	$70	85	71	+15	open	—	05-03 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	7	$59	73	59	+14	open	—	05-03 03:54
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	5	$58	226	58	+168	open	—	04-26 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	5	$42	59	38	+20	open	—	05-03 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	5	$42	63	29	+33	open	—	05-03 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	5	$41	42	42	+0	open	—	05-03 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	5	$39	44	32	+12	open	—	05-03 04:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	3	$33	64	13	+51	open	—	05-01 04:00
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$32	43	43	+0	open	—	04-15 17:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	3	$31	27	21	+6	open	—	05-01 03:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	3	$27	33	18	+15	open	—	05-03 13:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	4	$26	22	22	+0	open	—	05-14 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	5	$26	21	16	+5	open	—	05-03 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	4	$26	35	16	+19	open	—	05-03 04:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	3	$26	28	15	+13	open	—	05-03 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	3	$26	36	14	+22	open	—	05-03 04:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	3	$26	34	20	+14	open	—	05-03 04:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	3	$25	30	16	+14	open	—	05-03 04:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	7	$22	23	16	+6	open	—	05-02 20:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$22	36	36	+0	open	—	05-14 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	8	$21	29	29	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 04:59
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$21	193	14	+178	open	—	04-26 05:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	4	$20	19	19	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 04:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-03 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	4	$20	31	31	+0	open	—	05-03 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	4	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	05-04 05:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	5	$17	20	8	+12	open	—	05-02 00:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	3	$15	20	9	+11	open	—	05-02 00:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 17:49:19	btc updown 5m 1782668700	Down	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0xc5b3e5…
06-28 17:49:07	btc updown 5m 1782668700	Up	SELL	1	51¢	$0	0x5016d1…
06-27 02:13:35	btc updown 5m 1782526200	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x37b7ff…
06-27 02:12:55	btc updown 5m 1782526200	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x74e7ab…
06-27 02:12:37	btc updown 5m 1782526200	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfc41c5…
06-27 02:09:32	btc updown 5m 1782525900	Up	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x3f6d61…
06-27 02:06:19	btc updown 5m 1782525900	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x2fc9a4…
06-27 00:14:32	btc updown 5m 1782519000	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xaa544b…
06-21 16:54:59	btc updown 5m 1782060600	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x40c12f…
05-23 03:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xcd8aaa…
05-23 03:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xf991d4…
05-23 03:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x83f275…
05-22 16:16:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x9f596e…
05-22 16:14:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xcd7575…
05-22 16:12:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0x4bae82…
05-22 16:11:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x208c2a…
05-22 16:11:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xd8d589…
05-22 16:11:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdb675a…
05-22 00:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xde5a25…
05-22 00:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	7	57¢	$4	0xad77f4…
05-22 00:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x881b6f…
05-21 21:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xe85a86…
05-21 21:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x5e16ed…
05-21 20:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x716e3a…
05-21 20:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xae6071…
05-18 19:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x908e15…
05-18 05:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	12	46¢	$6	0x3189bb…
05-18 05:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x87cdeb…
05-18 05:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdfc1a4…
05-18 05:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9b83c4…
05-14 23:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xf32cb8…
05-14 23:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6ada8c…
05-14 23:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x171642…
05-14 23:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x99dfaa…
05-14 23:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xbde61e…
05-14 23:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x4c921a…
05-14 23:16:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xcd3934…
05-14 23:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x37f1b1…
05-14 23:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd79e7c…
05-14 19:02:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	17	38¢	$7	0xfa4d23…
05-14 19:01:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x019bc4…
05-14 18:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xff4298…
05-14 18:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x75d358…
05-14 18:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb7bc67…
05-14 18:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x51b225…
05-14 18:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0xb25c76…
05-14 18:38:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xe59221…
05-14 18:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xeb5243…
05-14 18:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xcf5aac…
05-14 18:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x3fc0a1…
05-14 18:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x21d745…
05-14 18:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0xbed60c…
05-14 18:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	44¢	$6	0x15ceb0…
05-14 18:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	36	48¢	$17	0x901666…
05-14 18:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xb3cc47…
05-10 04:39:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xda5fd1…
05-10 01:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1eda17…
05-10 01:47:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x063f2d…
05-10 01:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb77910…
05-10 01:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xcf14c0…
05-10 01:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x41bbcb…
05-10 01:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0d0755…
05-10 01:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x51ec96…
05-10 01:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0xc4811c…
05-10 01:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0d55e0…
05-10 00:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xca2bae…
05-09 04:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x55462c…
05-09 04:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xbb8624…
05-09 04:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0x71abf1…
05-09 04:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xbb73ad…
05-09 04:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	11	31¢	$3	0x5ab52f…
05-09 04:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xa07e76…
05-09 04:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x90a683…
05-09 04:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x271be4…
05-09 03:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x90a59f…
05-09 02:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xe3dd59…
05-09 02:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x16abb7…
05-09 02:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x20244b…
05-09 01:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xda3b1c…
05-09 01:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xb583f3…
05-09 01:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfd2d24…
05-09 01:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0x7a9f67…
05-09 01:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xa42ef4…
05-06 04:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xc3c916…
05-06 04:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x505e94…
05-06 04:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xd1d223…
05-06 04:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x5ee65b…
05-06 04:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x30bb39…
05-06 04:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0xca4d65…
05-06 04:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x1563d6…
05-06 03:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x71ee8c…
05-06 03:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x19ecd9…
05-06 03:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x3aefea…
05-06 03:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x4d0a88…
05-05 04:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x461b1e…
05-05 04:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe8c39e…
05-05 04:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0xfa049d…
05-05 04:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf57cd6…
05-04 17:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xd37e63…
05-04 06:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x58ab36…