Pessimistic-Nightlight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$585

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

1,869

Trades

7,836

lifetime

Volume

$25.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-17 02:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 55% -$574

Other

0% 9% -$12

Sports

0% 64% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 15:00 UTC	146	$576	521	499	+22	Up	$0	01-26 15:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 09:15 UTC	8	$474	261	261	+0	Down	+$20	01-20 09:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 15:15 UTC	113	$379	419	398	+21	Down	-$9	01-26 15:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 18:30 UTC	100	$339	298	295	+3	Down	+$1	02-01 18:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 14:15 UTC	5	$291	149	149	+0	Down	+$4	01-20 14:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 13:45 UTC	5	$281	148	148	+0	Down	+$6	01-20 13:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 15:15 UTC	2	$203	104	104	+0	Up	+$3	01-20 15:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 11:15 UTC	40	$197	215	0	+215	Up	+$18	01-07 11:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 17:15 UTC	66	$195	220	220	+1	Down	-$18	01-26 17:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 12:30 UTC	8	$182	100	100	+0	Up	+$12	01-20 12:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 10:15 UTC	1	$175	179	0	+179	Up	+$4	01-20 10:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-22 04:30 UTC	6	$160	148	146	+2	Up	+$71	01-22 04:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-22 04:45 UTC	11	$157	152	150	+1	Down	+$84	01-22 04:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 06:45 UTC	68	$150	155	152	+3	Up	-$9	01-27 06:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 06:30 UTC	69	$147	160	159	+1	Down	+$4	01-27 06:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 13:15 UTC	46	$143	96	135	-39	Up	-$2	01-29 13:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 18:15 UTC	37	$135	116	115	+1	Down	-$3	02-01 18:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 13:45 UTC	38	$132	111	99	+12	Down	+$3	01-28 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	53	$125	126	106	+20	Down	+$2	06-02 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	60	$125	145	110	+35	Up	-$11	06-02 16:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 12:00 UTC	46	$124	128	117	+11	Up	+$4	01-27 12:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 09:45 UTC	1	$122	130	0	+130	Up	+$8	01-20 09:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 11:45 UTC	52	$120	119	95	+24	Up	-$8	01-29 11:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	42	$120	126	110	+16	Down	+$1	06-02 16:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 12:30 UTC	36	$118	102	80	+22	Up	-$3	01-29 12:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 18:45 UTC	33	$117	101	96	+5	Up	-$5	02-01 18:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 14:45 UTC	43	$117	114	109	+5	Down	+$4	01-28 14:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 16:15 UTC	43	$114	114	91	+23	Down	-$2	01-29 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	42	$110	109	109	+0	Up	+$6	05-01 18:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 18:15 UTC	21	$110	93	88	+5	Down	+$7	01-28 18:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 02:36:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xe80fd4…
10-17 02:36:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	27¢	$0	0x7543fa…
10-17 02:36:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xa306df…
10-17 02:30:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x110c9b…
10-17 02:30:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xfe7076…
10-17 02:26:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xe83d93…
10-17 02:26:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x6f7581…
10-17 02:21:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xbcbb3d…
10-17 02:20:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9451b1…
10-17 02:16:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6a0859…
10-17 02:16:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	13¢	$0	0x12dae9…
10-17 02:16:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xcb7ddb…
10-17 02:16:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0x7b1f6c…
10-17 02:11:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xca7d2e…
10-17 02:11:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x3b6c87…
10-17 02:06:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xdf58d1…
10-17 02:05:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xdc1435…
10-17 02:05:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x356fa0…
10-17 02:01:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3e5854…
10-17 02:00:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x643852…
10-17 01:56:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xaab4cf…
10-17 01:55:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x4bf375…
10-17 01:53:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x461c2f…
10-17 01:52:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x8677bd…
10-17 01:48:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd7607e…
10-17 01:46:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x4069cf…
10-17 01:40:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xb00677…
10-17 01:40:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x16e59d…
10-17 01:40:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xe3f339…
10-17 01:38:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x778002…
10-17 01:38:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xedce34…
10-17 01:38:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xde0bd1…
10-17 01:30:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x0fc4e3…
10-17 01:30:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xecf3ad…
10-17 01:30:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0x55d118…
10-17 01:25:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xc83a34…
10-17 00:37:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 00:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xe2df4d…
10-17 00:37:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 00:35 UTC	Up	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0xadb6f7…
09-04 14:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x12a721…
09-04 13:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xe7bfa8…
09-04 05:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8e5b4d…
09-04 03:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x41da3f…
09-04 02:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x44cc36…
09-03 11:04:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa0976e…
09-03 09:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7e71ba…
09-03 03:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd549aa…
09-03 00:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x1f118b…
09-02 06:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xdf0b3a…
09-01 19:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb7ce1e…
09-01 17:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xcb9656…
09-01 13:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x91cdc8…
09-01 12:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x087ae9…
09-01 11:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd8dcf1…
09-01 03:04:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-01 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf6d8ca…
08-31 18:34:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x30d8b0…
08-29 23:59:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 23:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x2b805e…
08-28 17:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x933bf4…
08-28 02:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe93fc2…
08-28 02:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x8f1dc3…
08-27 23:09:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 23:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xaad8d5…
08-27 21:54:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf86604…
08-27 18:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x75c86e…
08-27 18:24:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 18:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xff7127…
08-27 16:24:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 16:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0428cd…
08-27 10:59:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x3c8b53…
08-26 23:49:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xc9cfb1…
08-26 14:59:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x5609d8…
08-26 12:19:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xca83be…
08-26 02:04:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x4f221d…
08-25 02:04:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9070dc…
08-25 01:24:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 01:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x59c8be…
08-25 00:34:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe3d73f…
08-24 23:04:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x784d7b…
08-24 19:04:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x34e4b9…
08-24 16:24:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x63adea…
08-24 15:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x2356c9…
08-24 15:34:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xd2cfb7…
08-24 14:39:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 14:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe5f652…
08-24 07:24:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xc9fb02…
08-24 05:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xc4f2ab…
08-24 05:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x4653cc…
08-24 01:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x433737…
08-24 01:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x342117…
08-24 01:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x994ce6…
08-23 20:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x78e858…
08-23 16:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x397de3…
08-22 11:44:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xbc3e23…
08-22 05:34:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x5b5921…
08-22 05:34:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x289b17…
08-22 00:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0b0a9f…
08-21 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 23:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe765f0…
08-21 13:04:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x04e6e7…
08-21 09:39:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9f28d6…
08-21 04:24:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 04:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb71a88…
08-21 04:14:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x1b60ef…
08-21 03:34:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x806c6d…
08-20 21:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xbb3a54…
08-20 20:44:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb248dc…
08-20 17:34:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xbb58c5…
08-20 11:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb4fe10…