Verifiable-Affidavit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$542

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved

919

Trades

1,981

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$37

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 11-06 14:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

61% 57% +$106

Crypto

27% 73% -$142

Politics

11% 34% -$507

Tech

1% 67% +$1

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No		+20	$15	94¢	$19	+$4	09-18 21:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No		+20	$9	90¢	$18	+$9	09-18 21:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in milan on april 9 2026 22c	12	$292	175	173	+2	Yes	+$19	04-09 10:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$202	3,273	0	+3,273	Yes	-$202	06-16 19:56
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$200	117	117	+0	No	+$24	09-10 17:01
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$196	130	130	+0	Yes	-$7	09-19 17:00
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 10 2026 22c	4	$180	95	94	+0	No	+$9	04-10 17:12
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$176	92	92	+0	No	+$6	03-07 22:30
Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 20m?	3	$144	182	0	+182	Yes	+$38	08-23 19:01
Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?	2	$130	70	70	+0	Yes	+$9	09-12 09:52
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	6	$128	225	225	+0	Yes	+$7	09-15 20:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$120	139	0	+139	Yes	-$120	02-25 07:06
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	4	$114	125	0	+125	Yes	+$11	08-26 12:26
bitcoin above 66k on february 27	1	$110	130	0	+130	No	-$110	02-26 21:33
highest temperature in beijing on april 10 2026 24c	2	$98	117	0	+117	No	+$19	04-09 19:27
highest temperature in madrid on april 9 2026 25c	5	$97	60	60	+0	No	-$4	04-09 05:22
highest temperature in tokyo on april 11 2026 23c	1	$94	107	0	+107	No	+$13	04-10 16:02
Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	3	$94	70	70	+0	Yes	-$8	09-05 19:12
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	5	$93	51	51	+0	No	+$9	09-12 09:52
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	3	$86	94	0	+94	No	+$8	08-26 12:27
highest temperature in moscow on april 6 2026 9c	3	$83	86	0	+86	No	+$3	04-06 05:28
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$75	97	0	+97	Yes	-$75	02-23 16:20
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	5	$71	100	100	+0	No	-$39	09-19 16:55
highest temperature in tokyo on april 12 2026 19c	7	$67	71	0	+71	No	+$4	04-11 17:17
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 25?	3	$61	39	39	+0	Yes	-$1	04-24 13:32
highest temperature in austin on april 16 2026 82 83f	3	$60	31	31	+0	No	+$0	04-16 16:18
highest temperature in moscow on april 8 2026 7c	2	$55	58	0	+58	No	+$3	04-07 21:10
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 11 2026 21c	6	$54	59	0	+59	No	+$6	04-10 20:13
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?	3	$51	32	32	+0	No	+$11	09-12 09:52
highest temperature in moscow on april 5 2026 10c	3	$48	51	0	+51	No	+$3	04-05 05:58
highest temperature in moscow on april 9 2026 6c	1	$48	50	0	+50	No	+$2	04-08 04:41
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	1	$46	50	0	+50	No	+$4	04-24 06:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 14:44:12	FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x418aaf…
11-06 14:11:00	Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xc1965c…
11-05 15:38:37	Mohun Bagan Super Giant vs. Odisha FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x43f1f7…
11-04 18:47:28	Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x769ad7…
11-04 18:47:18	Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x7ffb19…
11-04 18:40:49	AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x90484f…
11-04 15:15:52	Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x61016a…
11-04 15:15:42	Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xa4a5f4…
10-29 06:55:11	Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x11df4a…
10-29 06:42:02	Gangwon FC vs. Kuching City FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xde2b10…
10-28 21:07:52	New England Revolution vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x1db9ca…
10-28 21:06:43	Charlotte FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x447a10…
10-28 21:04:13	Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x274dc5…
10-28 21:02:29	Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xd92a78…
10-28 16:11:47	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0xcb90b0…
10-28 16:11:29	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf018b3…
10-26 16:07:29	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa60f8e…
10-26 15:58:39	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x487a4e…
10-25 09:14:02	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xe8ae38…
10-25 09:13:27	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x86382f…
10-25 09:11:21	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x383aa6…
10-25 06:44:24	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xd32693…
10-25 06:44:11	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x151b75…
10-25 06:42:39	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x31afa2…
10-24 16:56:57	SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xa42790…
10-24 15:21:32	FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. FK Zorya Luhansk: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x625a46…
10-24 15:21:06	TSV Hartberg vs. Wolfsberger AC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x107b82…
10-24 15:20:47	TSV Hartberg vs. Wolfsberger AC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x430c47…
10-24 15:20:12	CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9203fe…
10-24 06:39:05	Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4b70de…
10-24 06:36:17	FC Seoul vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x984357…
10-24 06:29:21	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x25c149…
10-22 18:54:41	AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x6cbda3…
10-22 18:53:45	Deportivo Alavés vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x865709…
10-21 16:45:03	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3c310a…
10-19 19:40:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xc6db77…
10-18 09:33:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x3e1d84…
10-18 07:42:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe3b953…
10-18 07:42:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x952eb1…
10-17 09:47:03	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xcc92e3…
10-17 09:46:11	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x312c83…
10-16 19:59:26	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x094bf9…
10-16 16:14:51	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xecd0b1…
10-14 12:38:56	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5f15fb…
10-14 12:08:42	dota2 nemiga kalmy 2026 10 14	Kalmychata	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x9c745d…
10-03 15:40:41	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 34m?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x5d8177…
09-28 20:29:26	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x14f8fa…
09-28 19:49:21	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x698d28…
09-28 19:48:54	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x840127…
09-27 08:16:59	dota2 lgd navi 2026 09 27 game1	LGD Gaming	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd7cbe0…
09-26 12:44:09	dota2 lgd ty 2026 09 26 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x71555c…
09-25 18:00:18	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x835d0c…
09-24 16:31:41	Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc7d89b…
09-24 16:31:11	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x502d62…
09-24 16:30:30	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xef427f…
09-20 19:12:35	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x30ee39…
09-20 08:09:00	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x841344…
09-19 17:00:57	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	130	73¢	$95	0xb1045b…
09-19 16:55:14	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xe0ec93…
09-19 16:54:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x21cdea…
09-19 16:54:26	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x5937c7…
09-19 16:54:21	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x619cb0…
09-19 16:54:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xae8824…
09-19 16:54:09	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xb49ba6…
09-19 06:22:13	Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xb0d661…
09-18 21:39:12	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xc461c9…
09-18 21:39:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xec0587…
09-18 21:38:51	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x8bbe88…
09-18 16:39:40	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe08e1c…
09-18 16:08:04	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xf78b3b…
09-17 19:35:10	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x819306…
09-17 19:06:09	will the next claude opus model be released by september 24 2026	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x86afd6…
09-17 18:59:00	will the next claude opus model be released by september 24 2026	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8b2365…
09-17 07:21:28	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x48fd20…
09-16 17:07:15	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x9a1721…
09-16 10:53:36	will the next claude opus model be released by september 20 2026	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x8299e3…
09-16 10:53:21	will the next claude opus model be released by september 17 2026	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x193c85…
09-15 20:56:15	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	SELL	203	30¢	$61	0xea2e86…
09-15 20:56:15	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	SELL	22	30¢	$7	0x3cbe7a…
09-15 17:03:28	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	BUY	75	37¢	$28	0xb5f5bf…
09-15 17:02:52	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xd0505a…
09-15 16:20:27	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$7	0xe04557…
09-15 16:17:30	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$7	0x69f3e0…
09-13 17:02:58	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x618765…
09-13 17:02:28	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x723fa8…
09-12 12:50:21	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xce0d77…
09-12 09:56:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x61d5a7…
09-12 09:52:34	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0xfb7283…
09-12 09:52:31	Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?	Yes	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x555df9…
09-12 09:52:27	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x81afcc…
09-12 09:52:16	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$31	0x72279b…
09-10 17:01:15	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	117	96¢	$112	0x127cc3…
09-10 17:00:30	Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?	Yes	BUY	70	87¢	$61	0x748351…
09-09 19:42:37	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	117	75¢	$88	0x287d20…
09-09 06:02:01	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	No	SELL	31	47¢	$15	0x961928…
09-06 15:58:45	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x0495b1…
09-06 15:58:25	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xf5c287…
09-05 19:12:09	Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Yes	SELL	70	61¢	$43	0x3e15da…
09-05 19:12:09	Will "By Any Means" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	No	SELL	27	63¢	$17	0x02fc99…
09-05 17:08:18	Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m?	Yes	BUY	45	83¢	$37	0x9a0e05…