Whispered-Inflammation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$454

Unrealized P&L

+$39

Hit rate

82.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$472

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-12 12:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% 50% +$454

Other

47% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	+200	$193	96¢	$192	$-1	06-04 19:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+200	$66	48¢	$95	+$29	06-04 14:54
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$93	94¢	$94	+$1	06-12 12:25
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+100	$69	74¢	$74	+$4	06-04 18:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-200	$-22	8¢	$-17	+$5	06-05 09:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$450	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$550	01-07 22:46
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	5	$368	400	0	+400	open	—	01-07 22:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$336	400	0	+400	open	—	05-11 12:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$281	300	0	+300	open	—	03-22 14:44
will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	2	$261	300	0	+300	open	—	02-01 23:22
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	1	$243	300	0	+300	open	—	02-01 15:28
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$196	200	0	+200	open	—	03-01 01:41
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	1	$193	200	0	+200	open	—	06-04 19:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$188	200	0	+200	open	—	03-31 11:22
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	2	$188	200	0	+200	open	—	01-07 22:50
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$168	200	0	+200	open	—	05-05 01:42
will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	3	$164	200	0	+200	open	—	02-01 15:36
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$160	200	0	+200	open	—	05-10 01:17
will pltr reach 174 in february	1	$147	150	0	+150	open	—	02-22 03:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$135	200	0	+200	open	—	04-17 15:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$126	100	100	+0	open	—	04-17 15:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$96	100	0	+100	open	—	03-20 16:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$96	100	0	+100	Yes	$-96	04-25 10:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	03-31 16:51
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	3	$93	100	0	+100	open	—	06-12 12:25
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$92	100	0	+100	open	—	04-30 02:05
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$88	100	0	+100	open	—	04-09 15:28
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	1	$87	100	0	+100	open	—	03-22 14:36
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	1	$86	100	0	+100	open	—	06-04 02:27
will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	1	$84	100	0	+100	open	—	03-20 16:38
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$83	100	0	+100	open	—	03-04 01:48
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$69	100	0	+100	open	—	06-04 18:47
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$68	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 13:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$66	200	0	+200	open	—	06-04 14:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$64	100	0	+100	open	—	03-31 11:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 12:25:00	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	93¢	$41	0x9f486d…
06-10 06:57:49	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0x96ce02…
06-05 09:15:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x3fc4b9…
06-04 20:15:33	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xfe6b58…
06-04 19:01:55	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x76987f…
06-04 18:47:28	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xa01cbc…
06-04 14:54:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xc30172…
06-04 02:27:40	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xbc2322…
05-11 12:52:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xe39f00…
05-10 01:17:55	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	195	80¢	$156	0x47f23e…
05-10 00:54:59	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x0101da…
05-05 03:02:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x152775…
05-05 01:42:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xb10d9e…
04-30 02:05:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x18fda8…
04-25 10:52:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x0d8eca…
04-17 15:23:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x2fcd8e…
04-17 15:17:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xb5745f…
04-17 15:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0xcd174d…
04-15 03:49:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x98ea98…
04-15 03:42:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x050e53…
04-09 15:28:39	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	66	88¢	$58	0x8de155…
04-09 15:27:03	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x48a5b4…
03-31 16:51:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x74e23c…
03-31 11:52:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	88	95¢	$84	0xb74064…
03-31 11:22:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x4436e0…
03-31 11:20:47	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x7f9f72…
03-24 13:36:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xf1c6b5…
03-24 13:32:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x581e51…
03-24 13:31:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x7f87ae…
03-24 13:31:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0xac087f…
03-24 13:31:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x53e0a1…
03-24 13:30:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0xeb35b8…
03-24 13:30:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x1a9686…
03-24 13:30:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xd454d0…
03-24 13:27:55	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x61fdbb…
03-22 14:44:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xbd492a…
03-22 14:36:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xa9a0ee…
03-20 18:49:43	will gold gc hit low 4500 by end of march	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x575912…
03-20 16:38:17	will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x08861a…
03-20 16:21:45	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x05dfb9…
03-20 16:20:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb062c6…
03-20 16:18:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x60dfa1…
03-20 16:10:11	will gold gc hit low 4500 by end of march	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x1eded0…
03-18 13:02:07	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	59	29¢	$17	0x61ffd3…
03-18 12:34:57	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	26	29¢	$8	0xfdc294…
03-04 01:48:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xf51714…
03-01 01:41:59	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x2ddca0…
02-24 16:07:40	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x1b73f4…
02-23 05:55:14	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0x8fc5ff…
02-22 03:30:24	will pltr reach 174 in february	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x5c058f…
02-01 23:22:04	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	No	BUY	267	87¢	$232	0x7c9cf6…
02-01 16:39:08	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x2e375a…
02-01 15:36:02	will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x82681d…
02-01 15:36:00	will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	No	BUY	88	82¢	$72	0x188151…
02-01 15:28:16	will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x58593a…
02-01 15:26:40	will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	No	BUY	110	82¢	$90	0x3fde5b…
01-07 22:58:15	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	238	92¢	$218	0x320ff3…
01-07 22:55:29	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0x8504b0…
01-07 22:50:41	will the iranian regime fall by january 31	No	BUY	167	94¢	$157	0xf0a007…
01-07 22:50:13	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xe4353d…
01-07 22:47:19	will the iranian regime fall by january 31	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xfefdff…
01-07 22:46:51	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x72c3a3…
01-07 22:46:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0xf6d83a…
01-07 22:40:53	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0x8c54f2…