Fumbling-Perception — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.85K

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

50.4%

Resolved

725

Trades

1,255

lifetime

Volume

$141.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$112

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-23

last 10-26 19:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 186 days

Categories

Other

77% 40% -$1,495

Sports

23% 46% -$3,367

Crypto

0% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+220	$20	2¢	$5	-$16	05-07 12:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	2	$2.5K	1,355	1,355	+0	No	+$215	06-14 00:24
bun hei b04 2026 03 21 b04	6	$1.8K	2,218	1,199	+1,019	No	+$581	03-21 17:14
ucl liv1 gal 2026 03 18 gal	2	$1.6K	850	850	+0	No	+$84	03-18 22:18
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?	1	$1.5K	2,239	0	+2,239	Yes	-$1,478	05-13 13:29
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-14?	1	$1.5K	2,850	0	+2,850	No	+$1,397	09-14 18:34
epl bou mun 2026 03 20 bou	2	$1.4K	800	800	+0	No	+$247	03-20 22:50
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	1	$1.3K	1,689	0	+1,689	No	+$388	05-10 18:09
ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 psg1	3	$1.2K	1,800	1,000	+800	Yes	-$522	03-17 19:57
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	1	$1.2K	1,442	0	+1,442	No	+$216	06-14 00:22
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 spo1	1	$1.2K	1,415	0	+1,415	No	+$226	04-15 18:35
col mai sig 2026 03 19 sig	12	$1.1K	561	561	+0	No	+$53	03-19 20:00
itf wiersho lokotko 2026 06 30	2	$1.1K	1,253	0	+1,253	Katja Wiersholm	+$190	06-30 01:03
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	1	$1.1K	1,278	0	+1,278	Yes	-$1,061	06-14 00:25
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-20?	1	$927	1,495	0	+1,495	Yes	-$927	09-20 18:32
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw?	1	$918	3,060	0	+3,060	Yes	+$2,142	05-11 13:26
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-01?	1	$887	1,198	0	+1,198	No	+$311	05-01 13:55
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	1	$854	1,081	0	+1,081	No	+$227	04-15 18:16
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5	1	$848	1,731	0	+1,731	Over	+$883	05-03 22:23
ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	1	$822	1,393	0	+1,393	Yes	-$822	04-07 09:09
wta sabalen kostovi 2026 06 29	1	$799	850	0	+850	Aryna Sabalenka	+$51	06-28 16:35
lal gir bet 2026 04 21 bet	1	$720	1,059	0	+1,059	Yes	-$720	04-21 19:19
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	1	$707	1,387	0	+1,387	Czechia	+$680	09-29 19:56
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	1	$699	2,589	0	+2,589	No	-$699	07-06 14:19
bun hof dor 2026 04 18 dor	2	$680	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$320	04-18 13:29
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	1	$674	1,604	0	+1,604	Yes	-$674	05-10 18:10
wta stearns bartunk 2026 06 29 set handicap away 1pt5	1	$646	1,242	0	+1,242	Stearns	+$596	06-28 16:19
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	1	$626	792	0	+792	No	+$166	06-18 15:48
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	1	$622	1,324	0	+1,324	No	+$702	06-12 13:39
lal rea gir 2026 04 10 rea	1	$620	2,383	0	+2,383	No	+$1,763	04-10 11:41
lal ray elc 2026 04 03 ray	1	$606	1,347	0	+1,347	Yes	-$606	04-03 13:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:25:29	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	380	6¢	$22	0x23ee92…
10-26 19:25:24	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0x8b6dbc…
10-26 19:25:08	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	217	6¢	$13	0x5d5845…
10-25 17:17:30	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,500	15¢	$225	0x896043…
10-24 16:16:11	Will Valencia CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	316	27¢	$85	0xa304fe…
10-22 15:46:26	Sharks vs. Bruins	Sharks	BUY	265	40¢	$106	0x65af2d…
10-22 02:00:30	Ducks vs. Devils	Ducks	BUY	526	36¢	$189	0x653ddf…
10-21 21:37:41	Canadiens vs. Blackhawks	Blackhawks	BUY	161	38¢	$61	0xe287c5…
10-21 21:36:00	Canadiens vs. Blackhawks	Blackhawks	BUY	75	38¢	$28	0x37d5da…
10-21 15:54:02	Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	197	92¢	$181	0x9927c3…
10-21 15:47:48	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x80ca60…
10-21 12:10:18	Will Levante UD vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	414	29¢	$120	0x21e666…
10-21 12:08:15	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	346	31¢	$107	0x7e8be8…
10-20 18:38:15	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	285	42¢	$120	0xfe483d…
10-20 00:00:42	Flyers vs. Sabres	Flyers	BUY	1,068	37¢	$395	0xed1382…
10-19 16:27:36	Will AC Monza vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	184	30¢	$55	0xfbfc55…
10-19 15:16:42	Will Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	357	33¢	$118	0x6c81d0…
10-19 15:12:30	Will AC Monza vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	378	30¢	$113	0x681886…
10-18 16:07:35	Will Málaga CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	319	27¢	$86	0x33fc0e…
10-18 15:17:47	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	204	57¢	$116	0x122616…
10-18 15:14:00	Will Paris FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	211	53¢	$112	0xd8bf80…
10-18 15:12:54	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	217	53¢	$115	0x998a5d…
10-18 15:08:02	Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	618	23¢	$142	0x6ecfc4…
10-18 11:30:21	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	140	21¢	$29	0xbccf31…
10-18 10:40:45	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	732	20¢	$146	0x21b192…
10-18 10:36:39	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	433	31¢	$134	0x9f4ca2…
10-18 10:33:06	Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	489	26¢	$127	0xd7d17b…
10-17 17:47:23	Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	320	71¢	$227	0x8df56d…
10-17 17:46:42	Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	420	71¢	$298	0x70312e…
10-17 17:29:53	Will AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	600	24¢	$144	0xf4f9eb…
10-17 10:19:11	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	529	24¢	$127	0xeb2440…
10-16 15:28:19	Will Le Mans FC vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	196	27¢	$53	0x87cda3…
10-14 16:01:55	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	172	32¢	$55	0x6f2ae3…
10-14 16:00:30	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	385	59¢	$227	0x3d0c5a…
10-14 15:55:43	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	1,082	47¢	$509	0x5ccc16…
10-13 18:20:00	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	408	48¢	$196	0x255681…
10-13 16:35:12	Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	332	49¢	$163	0x40a07b…
10-13 14:54:47	Will PSV win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	56	82¢	$46	0xb00e95…
10-12 18:53:29	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-12?	No	BUY	496	62¢	$307	0x2b01d6…
10-12 18:50:14	Will Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	336	30¢	$101	0x38c418…
10-12 15:00:51	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	234	37¢	$87	0xdd2cd3…
10-12 14:31:17	Will Atalanta BC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	617	21¢	$130	0x218e65…
10-11 16:23:42	Will Real Betis Balompié vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	652	20¢	$130	0xd0083c…
10-11 16:22:28	Will Ujpest FC Budapest win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	128	22¢	$28	0xa7e18a…
10-11 15:56:13	Will Real Betis Balompié vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	263	21¢	$55	0x42149b…
10-11 15:38:43	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: RC Deportivo A Coruña O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	300	9¢	$27	0x79049d…
10-11 15:38:27	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: RC Deportivo A Coruña O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x801e87…
10-11 15:29:12	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	429	53¢	$227	0x3144e2…
10-09 18:28:04	Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-09?	No	BUY	67	89¢	$60	0x2eae88…
10-09 13:02:54	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	628	29¢	$182	0xf431f6…
10-09 13:01:15	Will Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	258	16¢	$41	0xd40186…
10-09 12:58:37	Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	342	26¢	$89	0x2afd7a…
10-09 12:47:00	Lightning vs. Islanders	Islanders	BUY	772	39¢	$301	0x6bdb0a…
10-09 12:41:28	Will Málaga CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	221	30¢	$66	0x2ff8f0…
10-09 12:38:30	Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	198	26¢	$51	0x5551bc…
10-07 18:12:45	Will FC Barcelona vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	230	6¢	$13	0xdaee94…
10-07 18:10:48	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	311	47¢	$146	0x59fad7…
10-07 18:05:54	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	346	29¢	$100	0x514cfa…
10-06 18:13:24	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	244	26¢	$63	0x7322ed…
10-06 18:13:18	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	26	25¢	$6	0x5823fd…
10-04 15:04:29	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	299	47¢	$141	0xa2ae14…
09-30 11:16:02	Flyers vs. Devils	Flyers	BUY	738	41¢	$303	0x423ba0…
09-29 21:49:35	Will United States win on 2026-09-29?	No	BUY	400	31¢	$124	0x90771e…
09-29 21:48:23	Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	705	11¢	$78	0xe4a0c3…
09-29 19:56:15	Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Czechia	BUY	1,387	51¢	$707	0x824d7c…
09-29 19:50:27	Slovakia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	732	53¢	$388	0xbae96f…
09-29 19:14:54	Bulgaria vs. Estonia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	64	33¢	$21	0xd118a9…
09-29 19:14:54	Bulgaria vs. Estonia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	228	33¢	$75	0xc68164…
09-29 19:14:54	Bulgaria vs. Estonia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	158	33¢	$52	0x07035a…
09-28 22:18:51	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xd02303…
09-28 22:18:51	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xb84347…
09-28 22:18:42	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xe1b4de…
09-28 22:18:39	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x407155…
09-28 22:18:26	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xcf9432…
09-28 22:18:26	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0xc1acb1…
09-28 22:18:26	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4853f1…
09-28 21:53:38	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	164	0¢	$0	0xad712a…
09-28 21:50:47	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$28	0x6acc49…
09-28 21:50:06	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9c2f54…
09-28 21:48:48	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0c1cd3…
09-20 18:32:58	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	1,495	62¢	$927	0x3780b7…
09-20 18:25:03	Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	401	18¢	$72	0x0de9f6…
09-18 19:12:43	Bologna FC 1909 vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	179	53¢	$95	0xbcc5ab…
09-18 17:02:30	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?	No	BUY	371	63¢	$234	0xe428e6…
09-17 14:23:28	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-09-17?	No	BUY	154	58¢	$90	0x6dbc69…
09-17 14:21:48	Will Celtic FC win on 2026-09-17?	No	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0x175c82…
09-17 14:19:48	Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-09-17?	No	BUY	165	54¢	$89	0xf7dcdc…
09-17 14:18:34	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-09-17?	No	BUY	157	27¢	$42	0x7d5d8f…
09-17 08:43:22	Sporting CP vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	348	46¢	$160	0x1c1a40…
09-17 08:41:55	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-09-17?	No	BUY	137	18¢	$25	0xbc1aef…
09-17 08:40:00	Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-09-17?	No	BUY	188	47¢	$88	0x2ea864…
09-17 08:38:10	Will Málaga CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	546	25¢	$137	0xed3fe2…
09-16 16:41:02	Will RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	211	32¢	$68	0x2f9f02…
09-16 16:36:17	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,153	18¢	$208	0x0c530c…
09-15 19:36:31	Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	244	50¢	$122	0xc17c51…
09-15 19:12:04	2nd Half Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	Elche CF	BUY	990	61¢	$604	0x4c5a2a…
09-15 16:50:58	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?	No	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0x5fdb2e…
09-15 16:49:31	Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,510	26¢	$392	0x25b352…
09-14 18:52:34	AFC Ajax vs. Willem II Tilburg: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	234	49¢	$115	0x1a06a4…
09-14 18:49:57	Tani Oluwaseyi: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	31	21¢	$7	0x0176f5…