Each-Caliber — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.12K

Unrealized P&L

+$89

Hit rate

89.1%

Resolved

3,247

Trades

5,157

lifetime

Volume

$91.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$451

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 10-31 06:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 205 days

Categories

Other

97% 45% +$3,035

Politics

2% 58% +$21

Tech

1% 54% -$9

Sports

0% 33% +$60

Crypto

0% 53% +$19

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will russia announce a new forced mobilization by december 31 2026	No	+145	$100	94¢	$136	+$36	08-25 22:14
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+17	$5	98¢	$16	+$11	09-28 17:10
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	+16	$7	99¢	$16	+$9	07-30 21:50
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?	No	+15	$14	97¢	$15	+$1	08-26 18:01
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	+15	$14	96¢	$15	+$1	07-31 01:08
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+15	$13	94¢	$14	+$1	07-24 14:39
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	+15	$13	88¢	$14	+$1	08-01 15:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+25	$10	54¢	$14	+$4	10-25 07:53
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+15	$11	78¢	$12	+$1	08-26 01:52
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+20	$10	58¢	$12	+$2	10-27 11:53
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+15	$10	74¢	$11	+$1	07-28 10:05
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+11	$10	100¢	$11	+$1	10-30 12:38
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+16	$10	70¢	$11	+$1	10-20 17:02
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+16	$10	70¢	$11	+$1	10-13 15:11
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+15	$10	72¢	$11	+$1	10-13 15:59
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	+11	$5	99¢	$11	+$6	09-30 21:03
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	09-01 13:24
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+14	$10	72¢	$10	$0	10-13 05:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+11	$5	88¢	$10	+$5	09-01 16:14
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+14	$10	72¢	$10	$0	10-15 10:53
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+18	$10	52¢	$10	$0	10-27 08:39
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	+10	$9	92¢	$9	+$0	08-28 14:28
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	+10	$3	89¢	$9	+$6	06-11 15:27
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	+14	$10	62¢	$9	-$1	10-21 10:02
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+12	$10	72¢	$9	-$1	10-14 16:04
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	+36	$8	24¢	$8	+$1	10-30 17:41
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$6	84¢	$8	+$3	06-30 16:14
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+10	$5	80¢	$8	+$3	09-07 21:12
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	+10	$7	66¢	$7	$0	09-01 20:35
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	+10	$7	56¢	$6	-$1	07-29 13:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 18corhigher	1	$1.3K	1,338	+1,338	No	-$1,260	04-17 04:34
highest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 21corhigher	1	$1.2K	1,340	+1,340	Yes	+$143	04-15 04:04
highest temperature in singapore on april 16 2026 32c	1	$1.2K	1,208	+1,208	No	+$18	04-16 05:01
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 11?	2	$1.0K	1,056	+1,056	No	+$46	08-11 11:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 8?	2	$1.0K	1,071	+1,071	No	+$61	07-08 11:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27?	2	$1.0K	1,121	+1,121	No	+$111	06-27 09:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 12?	1	$1.0K	1,011	+1,011	No	+$11	10-12 07:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 29?	1	$1.0K	1,024	+1,024	No	+$24	09-29 10:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 4?	1	$1000	1,481	+1,481	No	+$481	07-03 20:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on July 29?	1	$1000	1,035	+1,035	No	+$35	07-28 20:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 2?	1	$1000	1,057	+1,057	No	+$57	09-02 11:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 5?	1	$1000	1,095	+1,095	No	+$95	07-05 13:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 27?	1	$1000	1,159	+1,159	No	+$159	08-27 15:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 11?	1	$1000	1,362	+1,362	No	+$362	09-10 20:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 31?	1	$1000	1,028	+1,028	Yes	-$1,000	07-31 12:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 20?	1	$1000	1,010	+1,010	No	+$10	07-20 08:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or below on August 7?	1	$1000	1,060	+1,060	No	+$60	08-07 08:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?	1	$1000	1,193	+1,193	No	+$193	08-12 12:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 28?	1	$1000	1,037	+1,037	No	+$37	08-28 13:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 30?	1	$1000	1,093	+1,093	No	+$93	07-30 14:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 29?	1	$1000	1,036	+1,036	No	+$36	08-29 09:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 22?	1	$994	1,039	+1,039	No	+$45	08-22 07:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28?	1	$958	976	+976	No	+$17	06-28 12:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 17?	1	$828	941	+941	No	+$113	09-17 10:59
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 10?	2	$801	914	+914	No	+$106	05-10 12:31
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3?	1	$800	808	+808	No	+$8	06-03 10:01
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13?	1	$800	816	+816	No	+$16	05-13 11:01
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 25?	1	$800	808	+808	No	+$8	05-25 10:01
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25?	1	$800	811	+811	No	+$11	05-25 12:31
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 5?	1	$760	770	+770	No	+$10	07-05 10:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 06:47:28	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xf6f59c…
10-31 06:43:52	Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xbe627d…
10-30 18:18:42	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xd2e1f4…
10-30 17:41:51	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0xdf5ad4…
10-30 16:41:25	Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8db02d…
10-30 16:40:12	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x8d18f9…
10-30 16:36:57	Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x52c7b2…
10-30 15:49:33	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x6d11ae…
10-30 15:08:46	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0x738c31…
10-30 15:03:37	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x3b3536…
10-30 14:29:34	Will Seoul have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x2ff0c3…
10-30 12:53:27	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf32b97…
10-30 12:38:16	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xab98db…
10-30 12:27:42	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x79d469…
10-30 10:03:19	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x121829…
10-30 09:38:57	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x9ba32a…
10-30 08:37:39	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x4a663e…
10-30 08:37:21	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x396975…
10-30 08:19:15	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xc25216…
10-30 07:55:45	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x54ca04…
10-30 05:32:25	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xf618ce…
10-30 04:30:57	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x9eee6d…
10-30 02:35:10	Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0xabf84f…
10-30 01:12:54	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x28d0f2…
10-30 00:47:52	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc1accf…
10-29 23:22:49	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x2cd4b6…
10-29 23:22:48	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb2896b…
10-29 16:37:14	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xda3d23…
10-29 15:59:25	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xde3c88…
10-29 15:50:10	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xdfdb4b…
10-29 15:10:22	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x7eb688…
10-29 15:03:25	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x512730…
10-29 15:03:17	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x3c3530…
10-29 14:25:22	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x660d14…
10-29 14:02:34	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x3c80cf…
10-29 13:09:10	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0xa907f9…
10-29 13:05:35	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xaa03ca…
10-29 12:13:52	Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xb34b75…
10-29 12:13:31	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0xbc7294…
10-29 12:03:02	Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x63b843…
10-29 11:36:13	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xd33f0c…
10-29 10:59:19	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or higher on October 29?	Yes	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0xb88666…
10-28 17:29:59	Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xeade9c…
10-28 10:59:19	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 28?	No	BUY	85	92¢	$78	0x74344b…
10-28 09:33:29	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xc9f74e…
10-28 09:33:17	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xfc17c7…
10-28 09:20:25	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xc900e8…
10-28 07:56:35	Next GPT Terra (6.2+) released by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x2cb193…
10-28 07:09:50	Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xa142a1…
10-27 21:12:15	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	21	21¢	$4	0xd74b13…
10-27 20:53:42	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xf0aab3…
10-27 17:33:03	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd58088…
10-27 17:32:54	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xbe8e95…
10-27 17:32:39	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0xe28a6d…
10-27 17:23:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x296a35…
10-27 13:58:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xfa5af7…
10-27 13:31:45	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xe30ed7…
10-27 13:03:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xf4b017…
10-27 11:53:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb716b5…
10-27 08:39:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xc1958f…
10-27 08:32:08	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xbd131d…
10-27 08:18:29	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x049e93…
10-27 07:14:02	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xe1f65d…
10-26 20:52:29	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x7c37af…
10-26 18:09:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x564d45…
10-26 11:02:02	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6fe7e1…
10-25 23:00:56	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xd1df3d…
10-25 22:38:03	Will Tucker Wetmore win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x346c64…
10-25 22:23:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xe1339f…
10-25 20:45:42	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x6e1a26…
10-25 12:00:06	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x39b2fd…
10-25 10:59:18	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 25?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0x8d24c2…
10-25 07:54:57	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0xdcbc6e…
10-25 07:53:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x7688ca…
10-24 22:20:15	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xfbfd4a…
10-24 10:29:24	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 24?	No	BUY	318	95¢	$304	0x7f969c…
10-24 07:53:59	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x2bc1fa…
10-24 06:50:02	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x6fbc7f…
10-24 06:50:02	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	79	12¢	$9	0x516435…
10-23 16:20:21	Will the median home value in Miami be between $851,000 and $870,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	79	5¢	$4	0x6b76f8…
10-23 15:28:51	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x5d7159…
10-23 14:13:47	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xdea9db…
10-23 11:19:21	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x577cb0…
10-23 06:45:57	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xe94a69…
10-23 06:32:48	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.70 and $0.75 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	11¢	$10	0x42caf6…
10-23 05:59:50	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0xf83e69…
10-23 05:35:42	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	57¢	$4	0xb29317…
10-22 23:13:03	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x106290…
10-22 17:42:50	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x14ae59…
10-22 16:42:47	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x83f134…
10-21 14:31:17	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on October 21?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xd6108b…
10-21 11:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 21?	No	BUY	204	94¢	$192	0x3aa3fc…
10-21 10:53:05	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 21?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf37a90…
10-21 10:02:57	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x4d27a5…
10-20 19:59:30	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xcf3cf8…
10-20 18:59:39	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xaf1ba8…
10-20 17:02:08	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x1595ec…
10-20 14:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x70427b…
10-20 11:25:20	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0x1264c8…
10-20 11:19:35	Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x43740a…