Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.96K

Unrealized P&L

-$123

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

Trades

321

lifetime

Volume

$140.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$436

Open exposure

$2.92K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-17 12:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

52% 50% +$3,938

Politics

48% 62% +$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No		+4,670	$3,042	62¢	$2.9K	-$123	10-17 12:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	4	$15.8K	11,386	5,200	+6,186	No	+$94	02-03 19:11
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	22	$11.0K	5,794	5,794	+0	No	-$59	02-04 17:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	22	$8.9K	3,750	7,850	-4,100	Yes	+$2,936	01-29 04:27
us government funding lapse on january 31	27	$7.7K	7,100	1,100	+6,000	Yes	-$46	01-30 16:51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	17	$7.4K	6,017	4,163	+1,854	Yes	-$396	06-12 10:07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	6	$7.3K	3,885	3,885	+0	Yes	+$377	04-18 11:22
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	7	$7.0K	4,200	4,200	+0	Yes	-$618	02-04 17:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$6.4K	5,789	5,789	+0	Yes	-$174	08-04 11:48
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	11	$6.1K	5,503	5,503	+0	Yes	+$72	05-20 15:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	22	$5.8K	7,670	3,000	+4,670	open	—	10-17 12:17
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$5.4K	2,428	3,150	-722	Yes	-$22	01-19 12:22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	12	$5.3K	3,327	3,327	+0	Yes	-$133	04-12 01:56
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	3	$4.9K	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	+$100	02-02 11:46
another us government shutdown by february 14	7	$4.7K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$1,045	02-13 05:46
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	49	$4.7K	16,667	16,667	+0	No	+$667	02-10 11:27
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	1	$4.3K	0	4,396	-4,396	Yes	-$48	01-12 08:34
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$3.7K	2,441	2,441	+0	No	-$301	01-24 02:13
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	2	$3.0K	3,496	0	+3,496	Yes	+$496	06-13 14:56
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	24	$2.9K	3,170	0	+3,170	Yes	+$247	01-22 05:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$2.3K	2,579	0	+2,579	No	+$232	01-16 03:57
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	12	$2.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$120	07-20 11:43
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	1	$2.0K	2,326	0	+2,326	No	+$326	01-15 03:13
will wti reach 90 in september 2026	2	$2.0K	2,778	0	+2,778	Yes	+$778	09-01 03:13
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$2.0K	1,613	1,613	+0	Yes	+$0	02-20 15:03
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,554	0	+1,554	Yes	+$158	04-16 15:16
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$1.1K	893	893	+0	Yes	+$71	04-01 00:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	2	$1.0K	1,516	0	+1,516	Yes	+$515	09-04 04:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	8	$994	1,400	0	+1,400	Yes	+$406	10-11 14:27
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	8	$820	831	831	+0	No	-$205	08-02 04:09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	11	$619	825	825	+0	No	-$206	09-01 08:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 12:17:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x69d17d…
10-17 12:17:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	449	60¢	$269	0x31ec5f…
10-16 07:33:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x4c3bf0…
10-16 01:31:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	400	60¢	$240	0x4bd59c…
10-16 00:44:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe6f656…
10-15 23:51:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	335	60¢	$201	0xa20012…
10-15 23:45:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	39	60¢	$23	0xa3ff77…
10-15 23:45:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	218	60¢	$131	0xa7567b…
10-15 19:52:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x91030b…
10-15 19:48:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xcd7b74…
10-15 18:56:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xccf307…
10-15 18:34:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xbcc222…
10-11 14:27:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	167	71¢	$119	0x9c70b5…
10-11 14:23:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	178	71¢	$126	0x9561fd…
10-11 14:22:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0xa40f26…
10-11 14:22:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x829a6c…
10-11 14:18:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	262	71¢	$186	0x3c9ff1…
10-11 14:18:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	262	71¢	$186	0x1f6841…
10-11 14:18:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	262	71¢	$186	0x06e2ac…
10-11 14:18:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	264	71¢	$187	0xc34925…
09-26 04:00:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	2,635	63¢	$1,660	0xcd6010…
09-26 03:36:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	187	63¢	$118	0xa5c6cc…
09-26 03:33:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	179	63¢	$113	0xaa4317…
09-25 16:42:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	355	46¢	$163	0x3c20bc…
09-25 16:40:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	2,645	46¢	$1,217	0x47c268…
09-24 16:44:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	926	51¢	$472	0x47c32f…
09-24 16:21:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	2,000	51¢	$1,020	0x212015…
09-24 14:33:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	42	51¢	$21	0x70b4c1…
09-24 13:17:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x44da5d…
09-24 11:40:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xaf1e20…
09-04 04:51:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	1,416	66¢	$935	0x5e7a79…
09-04 03:28:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x43ac97…
09-04 03:21:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	941	15¢	$141	0xc4c627…
09-01 08:25:54	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	195	25¢	$49	0x80b452…
09-01 08:21:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x258648…
09-01 08:11:24	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xe91320…
09-01 08:03:10	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x15dc5a…
09-01 07:50:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x5f700d…
09-01 07:40:34	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xba5b7d…
09-01 06:29:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xc41331…
09-01 06:28:19	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	187	25¢	$47	0x566bf8…
09-01 03:13:36	will wti reach 90 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0xc357ba…
09-01 02:55:45	will wti reach 90 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0x1c1db3…
09-01 02:35:55	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x478c33…
09-01 02:02:15	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	38	25¢	$9	0x8119bf…
08-26 12:02:04	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	825	50¢	$412	0x8daf99…
08-04 11:48:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,789	54¢	$3,126	0x2a23da…
08-02 04:41:33	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	510	22¢	$112	0x328578…
08-02 04:15:03	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	255	22¢	$56	0xbbda97…
08-02 04:09:02	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	167	37¢	$62	0x3282f9…
08-02 04:07:44	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	218	37¢	$81	0xe7da3a…
08-02 04:06:45	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	45	22¢	$10	0x45c9de…
08-02 04:06:32	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	151	22¢	$33	0xa7c818…
08-02 04:05:57	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	218	37¢	$81	0xfa42cb…
08-02 04:05:57	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	218	37¢	$81	0xf0b1a0…
08-02 04:05:57	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xdeb662…
08-01 17:31:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	941	23¢	$216	0x3d9428…
08-01 17:28:15	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	565	62¢	$350	0x407be2…
08-01 17:25:41	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	286	37¢	$106	0xab27d3…
08-01 17:25:30	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	676	37¢	$250	0xab4922…
08-01 17:25:14	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	256	61¢	$156	0xbbcd6c…
08-01 17:24:20	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x4f10ee…
07-30 07:40:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	526	57¢	$300	0x939129…
07-30 07:36:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,263	57¢	$3,000	0xdb7a33…
07-20 11:43:51	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	50¢	$1,000	0x6be935…
07-15 09:03:10	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	877	56¢	$491	0xc7269e…
07-15 08:53:26	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	373	56¢	$209	0x2c6261…
07-15 08:52:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$9	0x9e31ad…
07-15 08:52:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	19	56¢	$10	0x84de1a…
07-15 08:52:53	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0xa3d508…
07-15 08:52:53	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7867e2…
07-15 08:52:53	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	48	56¢	$27	0x583148…
07-15 08:52:52	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	581	56¢	$326	0xd17b54…
07-15 08:51:31	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x6f9326…
07-15 08:50:01	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x3d2d59…
07-15 08:46:26	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	58	56¢	$32	0xb6eb62…
06-13 14:56:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,706	88¢	$1,500	0x25e35a…
06-12 10:07:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,790	84¢	$1,500	0x4d0e63…
06-12 10:07:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	1,854	81¢	$1,500	0xb1c0a5…
06-01 13:12:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,163	56¢	$1,201	0xc2ec47…
05-31 16:28:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	584	69¢	$403	0x7f2a06…
05-31 16:28:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	66	69¢	$45	0x0d4bf8…
05-31 16:28:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	231	69¢	$159	0xa0c731…
05-31 16:25:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xf35df0…
05-31 16:11:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	749	69¢	$517	0x83f04f…
05-31 16:01:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	91	69¢	$63	0x6cbc59…
05-31 15:53:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	69¢	$15	0x9e8e5a…
05-31 15:53:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	246	70¢	$172	0x985c60…
05-26 13:27:14	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,938	80¢	$3,150	0x59d7b6…
05-26 13:16:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	51	80¢	$41	0x70c644…
05-26 12:31:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x45b655…
05-26 11:42:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xedf6e8…
05-26 11:42:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2166b3…
05-26 11:29:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	82¢	$21	0xa36824…
05-26 11:29:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	137	82¢	$113	0x4e798c…
05-20 15:16:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5,503	56¢	$3,099	0xf98b6f…
05-16 13:34:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,578	55¢	$868	0x4962e9…
05-16 13:02:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,800	55¢	$990	0x8df026…
05-16 13:02:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	52	55¢	$29	0x724598…
05-16 13:01:47	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,000	55¢	$1,100	0x56caee…