Rotating-Apology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$361

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$31

1 position

First seen

2026-01-27

last 06-13 12:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 0% $-2

Other

32% 0% $-1

Crypto

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No		-33	$-30	94¢	$-31	$-1	06-05 04:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran Nuke before 2027?	2	$30	0	33	-33	open	—	06-05 04:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$28	34	34	+0	Yes	$-2	03-14 02:18
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$26	33	14	+18	open	—	03-27 10:46
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	2	$26	21	21	+0	open	—	02-28 09:04
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	3	$25	241	0	+241	open	—	02-03 08:25
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$24	17	17	+0	open	—	03-26 00:38
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	02-01 01:04
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	02-02 08:43
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	02-02 08:54
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	01-30 12:21
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-01 03:12
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	06-13 12:59
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$19	12	12	+0	Yes	$-1	02-05 08:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$17	30	30	+0	open	—	04-01 23:00
will silver si hit high 150 by end of february 397 652 494 395 172	1	$10	331	0	+331	open	—	02-02 08:42
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	1	$10	52	0	+52	open	—	02-02 08:41
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$10	13	13	+0	open	—	02-07 07:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$8	13	13	+0	open	—	03-02 11:04
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	1	$2	33	0	+33	open	—	02-05 09:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 12:59:34	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x41c4d5…
06-05 04:13:18	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	24	92¢	$22	0x94ecbe…
06-03 23:32:40	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x2c32c0…
05-28 11:08:34	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	8	92¢	$8	0x488ba9…
04-01 23:00:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0xab6e81…
03-27 10:46:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xdebf8d…
03-27 07:33:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5fd23d…
03-27 07:32:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$5	0xe98e11…
03-26 00:38:39	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0x455dcf…
03-24 10:44:13	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x2fd251…
03-22 07:21:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x8dfb0c…
03-14 03:47:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfd2f66…
03-14 02:18:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	37¢	$13	0x85eef8…
03-10 10:43:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x8f4748…
03-09 19:41:39	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0x6edde4…
03-05 00:19:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x51d717…
03-02 11:04:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	SELL	13	22¢	$3	0xbe140d…
03-01 10:37:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x206ed8…
02-28 09:04:31	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xcef228…
02-22 12:19:42	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xce427c…
02-07 07:32:35	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x06e732…
02-05 09:04:21	us strikes iran by february 8 2026	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x5fd935…
02-05 08:59:53	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xe611cd…
02-05 08:58:55	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	12	80¢	$9	0x6eced4…
02-03 08:25:52	will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	Yes	BUY	109	5¢	$5	0x0c273c…
02-02 08:54:00	us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x36eaf4…
02-02 08:43:42	us strikes iran by february 4 2026	No	SELL	13	97¢	$12	0xb1cddf…
02-02 08:43:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x6513b3…
02-02 08:42:12	will silver si hit high 150 by end of february 397 652 494 395 172	Yes	BUY	331	3¢	$10	0xbce118…
02-02 08:41:54	will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x8a2301…
02-02 08:37:38	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x90449e…
02-02 08:34:50	will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xed5191…
02-01 03:15:24	us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x49e887…
02-01 03:12:34	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x0db2dc…
02-01 03:11:02	will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x633bc5…
02-01 01:04:16	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x266b31…
01-30 12:24:36	us strikes iran by february 4 2026	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xe64b41…
01-30 12:21:12	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf9f762…
01-30 06:01:08	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xe0e145…
01-28 13:04:27	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x114d4f…
01-27 12:29:43	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xf386ab…