Constant-Layer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

+$189

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

10,517

lifetime

Volume

$2.02M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$192

Open exposure

$1.32K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-02 14:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

68% 67% +$8

Other

28% 100% +$28

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 125 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No		+1,797	$1,132	74¢	$1.3K	+$189	06-15 06:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 6	48	$31.4K	13,403	18,793	-5,390	open	—	03-10 15:30
Iran leadership change by June 30?	96	$24.1K	13,182	11,641	+1,541	open	—	06-29 16:42
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	28	$22.5K	10,491	15,254	-4,762	open	—	02-28 06:20
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	58	$22.2K	15,600	11,041	+4,559	open	—	02-10 01:41
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	57	$22.0K	14,922	9,350	+5,573	open	—	02-21 02:17
will zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the world economic forum	46	$20.2K	9,914	10,416	-502	open	—	01-23 18:35
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	80	$19.8K	9,730	10,562	-832	open	—	01-21 00:44
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	10	$17.9K	13,052	5,000	+8,052	open	—	02-18 05:55
Iran leadership change by April 30?	67	$17.5K	14,325	9,017	+5,308	open	—	04-19 14:46
Iran leadership change by May 31?	49	$17.4K	16,433	2,412	+14,021	open	—	05-29 16:36
will israel strike lebanon on january 21 2026	33	$17.1K	6,207	10,925	-4,719	open	—	01-21 09:22
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	27	$16.5K	9,000	7,539	+1,461	open	—	01-04 13:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	126	$16.5K	9,896	10,257	-361	open	—	03-31 19:33
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	63	$15.6K	13,598	15,048	-1,450	open	—	02-28 06:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	24	$15.2K	8,091	9,091	-1,000	open	—	03-27 15:31
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	14	$15.2K	15,259	0	+15,259	open	—	02-06 04:32
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	33	$15.0K	13,448	2,958	+10,490	open	—	07-01 03:30
nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	95	$14.8K	9,619	9,819	-200	open	—	06-08 12:38
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	11	$14.2K	10,000	4,500	+5,500	open	—	02-20 02:09
iran leadership change by march 31	21	$14.0K	8,993	6,732	+2,261	open	—	03-31 07:37
Iran leadership change by March 13?	32	$12.6K	6,417	7,117	-700	open	—	03-14 07:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	50	$12.4K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	04-15 14:41
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	23	$12.2K	11,748	740	+11,008	open	—	03-02 07:55
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	28	$11.9K	7,870	4,971	+2,899	open	—	02-06 14:46
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	64	$11.5K	6,937	7,110	-173	open	—	04-07 01:58
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	27	$11.3K	11,000	500	+10,500	open	—	02-14 01:59
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	9	$10.9K	8,000	3,000	+5,000	open	—	02-19 04:18
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	12	$10.7K	6,500	4,500	+2,000	open	—	04-09 01:45
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	39	$10.6K	12,614	4,346	+8,268	open	—	02-24 01:40
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	89	$10.4K	8,230	8,564	-334	open	—	04-30 10:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 14:30:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	438	83¢	$363	0x5b12f0…
07-02 14:19:59	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	537	92¢	$496	0x59af49…
07-02 13:57:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x2d658e…
07-02 13:35:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	540	90¢	$483	0xcef128…
07-02 12:15:46	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	1,414	78¢	$1,103	0xaefde5…
07-02 12:14:23	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe35d5f…
07-02 12:14:23	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x00d832…
07-02 12:14:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	203	80¢	$162	0xdaf674…
07-02 05:27:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	385	5¢	$19	0xa97fe0…
07-02 04:09:08	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	575	89¢	$512	0x1b99eb…
07-02 04:05:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xcf19dc…
07-02 04:05:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0xbe319d…
07-02 04:05:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x3c17e3…
07-02 04:05:10	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1,408	78¢	$1,098	0xe65ff0…
07-02 03:46:44	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0xfe2a34…
07-02 03:45:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$932	0x7a4fcf…
07-01 19:22:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x21d01f…
07-01 19:02:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x91af3b…
07-01 19:01:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	255	8¢	$20	0x9fba0f…
07-01 19:01:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	347	8¢	$28	0x3efa24…
07-01 16:49:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	701	8¢	$56	0xc35868…
07-01 16:38:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	299	8¢	$24	0xdabf97…
07-01 15:59:16	will elon musk attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204742	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x271c92…
07-01 10:48:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x001133…
07-01 09:55:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	500	24¢	$120	0xc7e793…
07-01 09:01:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	500	14¢	$70	0x0f4fbe…
07-01 08:35:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	1,702	8¢	$136	0x317638…
07-01 08:34:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xd2445c…
07-01 08:34:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xfeedd2…
07-01 08:34:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	280	8¢	$22	0xd4074e…
07-01 08:34:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x9449a6…
07-01 05:11:17	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x3d8d6c…
07-01 05:11:16	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	307	11¢	$34	0xd077af…
07-01 04:08:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	3,371	11¢	$371	0xc28a9e…
07-01 03:30:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x8620d4…
07-01 03:28:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	940	99¢	$935	0x0caa43…
07-01 02:45:20	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	321	11¢	$35	0x0840c5…
06-29 16:42:07	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	828	100¢	$824	0x99dd8e…
06-29 11:45:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	163	74¢	$121	0xcf542e…
06-29 11:44:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0xca6404…
06-29 11:44:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	253	74¢	$187	0x3af5e3…
06-29 11:44:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xf0487b…
06-29 11:43:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x73903e…
06-29 11:43:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	77	74¢	$57	0x324889…
06-29 11:36:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	161	73¢	$118	0x54723e…
06-29 11:33:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	800	55¢	$440	0xd88937…
06-29 10:36:56	will mojtaba khamenei attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204736	No	BUY	700	99¢	$694	0x6881ef…
06-29 07:46:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	164	99¢	$163	0x315337…
06-29 05:08:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf9c6d5…
06-28 21:29:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	112	99¢	$110	0xa7ff50…
06-28 17:45:07	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0x290add…
06-28 17:16:32	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x076481…
06-28 17:15:02	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x59ca1d…
06-28 12:54:04	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xeef365…
06-28 10:28:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xd62534…
06-28 10:12:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0x015f69…
06-28 09:58:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8375b7…
06-28 07:19:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd7ab24…
06-28 07:19:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4d78dc…
06-28 07:19:44	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdb5865…
06-28 07:19:44	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb4438c…
06-28 07:17:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd7b6eb…
06-28 07:17:40	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x493419…
06-28 07:17:40	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2ce3d1…
06-28 07:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x93f1b7…
06-28 07:15:58	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4420e8…
06-28 07:15:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbb3062…
06-28 07:15:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xad6f7a…
06-28 07:15:55	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd2065b…
06-28 07:14:07	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbc2110…
06-28 07:14:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdbaa8a…
06-28 07:14:04	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbfcdec…
06-28 07:12:11	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd8db96…
06-28 07:12:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5e7104…
06-28 07:12:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x51394f…
06-28 07:12:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb925b3…
06-28 07:05:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf8bb6b…
06-28 07:05:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x35a001…
06-28 07:05:20	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x52047d…
06-28 07:03:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf8f714…
06-28 07:03:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf8d80d…
06-28 07:03:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb45606…
06-28 07:03:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5deaec…
06-28 07:01:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xafbb96…
06-28 07:01:20	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x99ac22…
06-28 07:01:20	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3e3ecf…
06-28 07:01:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x318991…
06-28 07:01:17	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xbb6573…
06-28 06:59:07	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x08323e…
06-28 06:59:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1eb4be…
06-28 06:55:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe21baa…
06-28 06:55:49	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe0257c…
06-28 06:55:47	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0b6bd4…
06-28 05:40:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x4de922…
06-28 03:47:56	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$997	0x64e695…
06-28 03:14:07	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xf08e98…
06-28 03:12:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1,600	100¢	$1,597	0x84f7db…
06-28 01:08:49	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	325	100¢	$324	0x96ce97…
06-28 01:08:44	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	494	100¢	$492	0x2a557d…
06-27 22:14:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x0a060b…