Constant-Layer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

+$129

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

9,969

lifetime

Volume

$1.92M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$193

Open exposure

$9.09K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

68% 67% +$8

Other

28% 100% +$28

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 192 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No		+7,409	$6,975	96¢	$7.1K	+$111	06-08 02:10
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No		+2,800	$1,984	72¢	$2.0K	+$18	06-08 02:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 6	48	$31.4K	13,403	18,793	-5,390	open	—	03-10 15:30
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	28	$22.5K	10,491	15,254	-4,762	open	—	02-28 06:20
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	58	$22.2K	15,600	11,041	+4,559	open	—	02-10 01:41
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	57	$22.0K	14,922	9,350	+5,573	open	—	02-21 02:17
will zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the world economic forum	46	$20.2K	9,914	10,416	-502	open	—	01-23 18:35
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	80	$19.8K	9,730	10,562	-832	open	—	01-21 00:44
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	10	$17.9K	13,052	5,000	+8,052	open	—	02-18 05:55
Iran leadership change by April 30?	67	$17.5K	14,325	9,017	+5,308	open	—	04-19 14:46
Iran leadership change by May 31?	49	$17.4K	16,433	2,412	+14,021	open	—	05-29 16:36
will israel strike lebanon on january 21 2026	33	$17.1K	6,207	10,925	-4,719	open	—	01-21 09:22
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	27	$16.5K	9,000	7,539	+1,461	open	—	01-04 13:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	126	$16.5K	9,896	10,257	-361	open	—	03-31 19:33
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	63	$15.6K	13,598	15,048	-1,450	open	—	02-28 06:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	24	$15.2K	8,091	9,091	-1,000	open	—	03-27 15:31
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	14	$15.2K	15,259	0	+15,259	open	—	02-06 04:32
nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	95	$14.8K	9,619	9,819	-200	open	—	06-08 12:38
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	11	$14.2K	10,000	4,500	+5,500	open	—	02-20 02:09
iran leadership change by march 31	21	$14.0K	8,993	6,732	+2,261	open	—	03-31 07:37
Iran leadership change by March 13?	32	$12.6K	6,417	7,117	-700	open	—	03-14 07:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	50	$12.4K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	04-15 14:41
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	23	$12.2K	11,748	740	+11,008	open	—	03-02 07:55
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	28	$11.9K	7,870	4,971	+2,899	open	—	02-06 14:46
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	64	$11.5K	6,937	7,110	-173	open	—	04-07 01:58
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	27	$11.3K	11,000	500	+10,500	open	—	02-14 01:59
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	9	$10.9K	8,000	3,000	+5,000	open	—	02-19 04:18
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	12	$10.7K	6,500	4,500	+2,000	open	—	04-09 01:45
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	39	$10.6K	12,614	4,346	+8,268	open	—	02-24 01:40
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	89	$10.4K	8,230	8,564	-334	open	—	04-30 10:27
will the us next strike iran on february 23 2026 et	10	$10.4K	5,268	5,268	+0	open	—	02-24 04:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	147	$10.3K	15,113	15,031	+82	open	—	04-26 15:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 23:54:18	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	900	98¢	$880	0xb42000…
06-09 16:41:30	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0xfbd357…
06-09 16:39:55	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	800	98¢	$782	0xce1e94…
06-09 16:28:12	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x1c150c…
06-09 16:13:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$16	0xd9e528…
06-09 16:04:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	177	95¢	$168	0x9c6b35…
06-09 14:49:36	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0x1419ba…
06-09 14:34:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	140	88¢	$123	0x66f812…
06-09 06:45:03	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x0c0fdf…
06-09 06:44:33	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	481	98¢	$473	0x722932…
06-09 04:27:09	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x3838f3…
06-09 02:58:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	922	99¢	$915	0x598b36…
06-09 02:56:34	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x1db821…
06-09 02:55:13	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	266	99¢	$264	0x88fc0f…
06-09 02:40:04	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	134	99¢	$133	0xde3f7f…
06-09 02:30:18	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x11cc1d…
06-09 02:28:54	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0xc2d14b…
06-09 02:27:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x2cd091…
06-09 02:26:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x34c5c6…
06-09 02:25:48	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x141314…
06-09 02:25:07	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0x646bcf…
06-09 02:24:30	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	195	99¢	$193	0x5404db…
06-09 02:17:55	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	369	23¢	$85	0x3f5dfb…
06-09 02:17:45	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x7c624e…
06-09 02:17:42	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 8 20260607232556273	No	BUY	159	98¢	$156	0x67d3a3…
06-09 02:04:28	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3647a6…
06-09 02:03:19	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8a2cdb…
06-09 02:02:37	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xc46d21…
06-09 01:58:54	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xdccb28…
06-09 01:58:52	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x838457…
06-09 01:58:51	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	973	100¢	$969	0x7e167a…
06-09 01:58:00	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0503d8…
06-09 01:57:46	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3937fc…
06-09 01:54:09	will donald trump attend the g7 summit	Yes	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x9a1089…
06-08 12:38:34	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x6904c0…
06-08 12:37:07	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	SELL	438	6¢	$26	0x440f18…
06-08 12:21:45	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	862	15¢	$128	0xd21c96…
06-08 12:21:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	1,306	100¢	$1,304	0x570695…
06-08 12:20:58	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xea566f…
06-08 12:20:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	689	100¢	$688	0x101501…
06-08 12:15:30	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	589	14¢	$82	0xd9eb86…
06-08 12:15:28	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	273	17¢	$46	0x94da52…
06-08 12:14:51	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	34	80¢	$27	0x63eb21…
06-08 12:14:42	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	500	88¢	$438	0xd56b5e…
06-08 12:14:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	466	81¢	$378	0x9a1527…
06-08 12:13:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0x9fcf59…
06-08 12:08:34	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,996	0x9fce6f…
06-08 12:04:28	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x939ada…
06-08 11:21:34	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	483	68¢	$328	0xbc9b66…
06-08 11:21:34	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	676	68¢	$459	0x825ccd…
06-08 11:21:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	342	68¢	$232	0x387f96…
06-08 11:17:09	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0xc78e32…
06-08 11:17:09	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,350	66¢	$891	0xbbd05f…
06-08 11:16:43	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	1,400	29¢	$406	0x5ef05e…
06-08 11:14:34	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	SELL	799	6¢	$49	0xa6bab0…
06-08 11:08:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	400	29¢	$116	0xe62fb7…
06-08 11:08:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8c6edd…
06-08 11:08:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xc263e1…
06-08 11:07:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	59	30¢	$18	0xba8ae9…
06-08 10:57:51	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xc8bbf2…
06-08 10:55:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	597	47¢	$281	0xdb3977…
06-08 10:55:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xab75c0…
06-08 10:55:37	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x8158aa…
06-08 10:46:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	37¢	$222	0x83114f…
06-08 10:41:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	600	28¢	$168	0x66b753…
06-08 09:41:13	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1,804	25¢	$451	0x105011…
06-08 09:41:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	185	61¢	$113	0xaaeaec…
06-08 09:41:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	800	61¢	$488	0x55a26d…
06-08 09:40:40	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	853	57¢	$486	0xa9ec0c…
06-08 09:34:42	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	412	61¢	$251	0xc0bf02…
06-08 09:34:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7ad34c…
06-08 09:34:18	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xe24afc…
06-08 09:34:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x1791e0…
06-08 09:34:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	26	61¢	$16	0x9b2d24…
06-08 09:34:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	346	61¢	$211	0x172105…
06-08 09:26:55	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	660	58¢	$383	0xeeb14b…
06-08 09:26:43	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	140	58¢	$81	0x9c4fce…
06-08 09:22:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	153	64¢	$98	0x9dff32…
06-08 09:22:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	400	57¢	$228	0x4b0fd7…
06-08 09:16:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0x89bc91…
06-08 09:15:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0xefc3c3…
06-08 09:15:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0xa15a56…
06-08 09:15:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$0	0x72b462…
06-08 09:15:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xca9003…
06-08 09:15:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	36	54¢	$19	0x04baea…
06-08 09:08:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	183	56¢	$102	0x5f0e3c…
06-08 09:00:40	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x42336f…
06-08 09:00:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	49	52¢	$26	0xf7d7c7…
06-08 08:58:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	179	52¢	$93	0x9264ff…
06-08 08:57:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xf43a63…
06-08 08:56:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	14	52¢	$7	0x10a0a2…
06-08 08:55:15	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	BUY	437	7¢	$31	0xb985e0…
06-08 08:55:15	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x7e394b…
06-08 08:54:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x659a4f…
06-08 08:50:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	120	52¢	$62	0x67849d…
06-08 08:50:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	33	52¢	$17	0x98098b…
06-08 08:41:27	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1,000	26¢	$260	0x4fc877…
06-08 08:40:21	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	400	29¢	$116	0x3ad841…
06-08 08:32:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	600	56¢	$336	0x63ca97…
06-08 08:18:27	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	185	65¢	$121	0xf0bd62…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	601	$85.9K	22,368	06-10 00:09
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	593	$49.4M	81,008	06-10 00:18
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	584	$1.07M	80,859	06-01 05:26
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	539	$238.3K	25,104	06-09 01:38
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	523	$2.29M	44,375	06-10 00:50
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	520	$413.6K	37,594	03-30 13:41
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	498	$70.1K	38,903	04-24 12:05
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	458	$49.8K	6,072	04-30 20:01