Candid-Mixture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$108

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.0%

Resolved

Trades

64,905

lifetime

Volume

$358.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 04-26 23:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

71% — —

Other

21% 75% +$108

Politics

7% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 65 89	67	$2.4K	1,991	1,988	+3	open	—	03-07 08:21
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	90	$2.4K	1,650	1,255	+395	open	—	03-24 22:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$2.3K	2,615	2,615	+0	open	—	04-06 20:16
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	12	$2.1K	1,795	1,795	+0	open	—	04-20 13:08
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	30	$1.9K	1,950	1,869	+82	open	—	02-24 16:18
eth updown 15m 1770180300	244	$1.8K	2,464	787	+1,677	open	—	02-04 04:59
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 90 114	38	$1.8K	1,891	1,891	+0	open	—	03-07 14:31
bitcoin up or down february 7 8am et	168	$1.8K	1,952	861	+1,091	open	—	02-07 14:00
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	24	$1.6K	1,516	970	+545	open	—	04-06 23:17
r6siege 9z sn 2026 03 12 game2	2	$1.5K	1,470	1,470	+0	open	—	03-11 01:44
r6siege 9z sn 2026 03 12 game1	2	$1.5K	1,470	1,470	+0	open	—	03-11 01:49
eth updown 15m 1770194700	161	$1.5K	1,652	805	+847	open	—	02-04 08:59
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	44	$1.4K	2,651	1,551	+1,100	open	—	04-04 06:43
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	54	$1.4K	2,080	2,080	+0	open	—	03-03 18:08
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	106	$1.4K	3,746	2,530	+1,216	open	—	03-06 14:16
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	97	$1.4K	4,114	1,970	+2,144	open	—	03-05 15:23
eth updown 15m 1770179400	199	$1.4K	2,287	586	+1,701	open	—	02-04 04:45
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	72	$1.4K	1,584	1,437	+148	open	—	03-02 17:00
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	47	$1.4K	3,240	2,231	+1,009	open	—	03-05 09:37
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	20	$1.3K	1,177	1,177	+0	open	—	04-20 06:07
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	40	$1.3K	1,406	1,406	+0	open	—	03-06 16:02
eth updown 15m 1770183900	143	$1.3K	1,991	218	+1,774	open	—	02-04 06:00
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	29	$1.3K	1,117	1,117	+0	open	—	04-20 17:02
btc updown 15m 1770804000	192	$1.2K	1,022	877	+145	open	—	02-11 10:12
eth updown 15m 1770187500	117	$1.2K	1,434	406	+1,028	open	—	02-04 07:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	12	$1.2K	733	733	+0	open	—	04-08 14:39
eth updown 15m 1770190200	68	$1.2K	1,070	629	+441	open	—	02-04 07:43
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 65 89	34	$1.2K	2,592	2,541	+51	open	—	03-02 16:40
bitcoin up or down february 7 6am et	89	$1.2K	981	724	+257	open	—	02-07 11:59
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	47	$1.2K	795	795	+0	open	—	03-29 03:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-26 23:13:10	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$6	0x849f39…
04-26 01:52:22	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$51	0x571fe8…
04-21 13:30:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	83	30¢	$25	0xe60c0b…
04-21 12:07:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	341	25¢	$85	0x3150fd…
04-21 06:55:02	Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	86¢	$15	0x389177…
04-21 06:54:50	DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	No	SELL	31	9¢	$3	0xd7acea…
04-21 06:54:34	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	SELL	266	23¢	$61	0x1266f1…
04-20 19:40:36	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	68	66¢	$45	0xedc703…
04-20 17:25:36	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	90¢	$33	0x153d4b…
04-20 17:06:16	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x50d3df…
04-20 17:05:50	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	Yes	SELL	66	73¢	$48	0x2ee630…
04-20 17:05:16	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	58	90¢	$52	0x65cab6…
04-20 17:04:44	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	32¢	$81	0xd1459e…
04-20 17:04:34	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	No	SELL	79	93¢	$74	0x729a5e…
04-20 17:03:54	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	35	82¢	$29	0xf0a22a…
04-20 17:03:46	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf70308…
04-20 17:03:40	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?	No	SELL	272	98¢	$267	0x0e6b6c…
04-20 17:03:24	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	SELL	54	97¢	$52	0x15a770…
04-20 17:03:08	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	116	82¢	$96	0x0a3816…
04-20 17:02:42	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	452	59¢	$267	0xc13032…
04-20 13:08:40	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	551	92¢	$507	0xa21164…
04-20 11:07:32	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	92¢	$118	0xe0b3af…
04-20 07:57:50	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	SELL	58	56¢	$33	0xd08f25…
04-20 06:45:04	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xf1be66…
04-20 06:26:30	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	36	71¢	$25	0x0c4ebc…
04-20 06:15:36	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	No	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0xa47392…
04-20 06:15:26	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	No	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x5ed8eb…
04-20 06:15:04	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	SELL	369	22¢	$83	0x351bc5…
04-20 06:14:42	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x47ebff…
04-20 06:14:18	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	SELL	600	67¢	$401	0x1cbe75…
04-20 06:07:28	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	527	100¢	$526	0xa31d83…
04-20 05:40:20	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xecc5c9…
04-20 05:40:20	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$1	0x8bece9…
04-20 05:40:18	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xaca00c…
04-20 05:37:52	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x1da774…
04-20 05:36:20	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x95de8c…
04-20 05:36:04	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x45c880…
04-20 05:31:46	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x414ab8…
04-20 04:44:02	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	33	31¢	$10	0x4f66e0…
04-20 04:41:50	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x00c388…
04-20 04:41:44	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xb8ad16…
04-20 04:41:44	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	No	BUY	4	89¢	$3	0x08c71d…
04-20 03:44:34	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xdbbbfc…
04-20 03:44:32	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xbf788d…
04-20 03:44:32	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	12	79¢	$9	0x3dbd2e…
04-20 03:44:30	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0x1a6947…
04-20 03:44:26	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x87de5d…
04-20 03:44:18	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xfa45f6…
04-20 03:44:18	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	218	79¢	$172	0xa6984c…
04-20 03:44:14	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	310	60¢	$186	0xc4e2ce…
04-20 03:44:14	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x749a62…
04-20 01:36:28	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	36	81¢	$29	0x9bc4ef…
04-20 00:59:54	val 100t1 sen 2026 04 19 game2	100 Thieves	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x876af0…
04-20 00:59:46	val 100t1 sen 2026 04 19 game2	100 Thieves	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x365558…
04-20 00:59:24	val 100t1 sen 2026 04 19 game2	100 Thieves	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x5bd6c2…
04-20 00:57:58	val 100t1 sen 2026 04 19 game2	100 Thieves	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xdc8052…
04-20 00:57:48	val 100t1 sen 2026 04 19 game2	100 Thieves	BUY	24	71¢	$17	0x51732a…
04-20 00:37:48	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 37m and 40m	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd84ca4…
04-20 00:13:36	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x4e5021…
04-19 14:41:04	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	86	23¢	$20	0x7c0a9c…
04-19 14:03:42	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x2d9a13…
04-19 13:55:08	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0xe74d3a…
04-19 12:18:54	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	77¢	$24	0x9f2ffd…
04-19 09:34:56	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	76¢	$133	0x9773cf…
04-19 06:01:48	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	48¢	$12	0x8d7794…
04-19 05:48:28	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	48	88¢	$43	0x13efd2…
04-19 05:14:36	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xa89f35…
04-19 04:54:14	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	57	29¢	$16	0xf44f91…
04-19 04:53:36	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	64	25¢	$16	0x1129c8…
04-19 04:35:58	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0x2295d1…
04-19 03:57:46	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	75	85¢	$63	0x1afb8c…
04-19 03:44:42	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	51	13¢	$7	0x408c9c…
04-19 03:37:32	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	123	85¢	$105	0xb5b6c8…
04-19 03:30:38	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x144f62…
04-19 03:25:56	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	66	71¢	$47	0xf2cc52…
04-19 02:55:22	DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	No	BUY	31	14¢	$4	0xd5bdae…
04-19 02:55:12	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	59	28¢	$17	0xe31a18…
04-19 02:27:12	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xd768ab…
04-19 00:54:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xa33705…
04-19 00:51:42	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	Yes	BUY	47	74¢	$35	0x4df0c1…
04-19 00:51:00	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be less than 10m	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x2e9103…
04-19 00:41:18	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 31m and 34m	Yes	BUY	145	42¢	$62	0x07d36e…
04-18 21:00:38	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x00e42a…
04-18 20:43:26	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x957fe3…
04-18 20:29:00	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	73¢	$32	0x29661e…
04-18 18:51:30	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0x9c6e09…
04-18 18:38:24	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	74¢	$15	0x24f1fc…
04-18 17:50:12	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	73¢	$9	0x4ab79d…
04-18 14:50:24	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x16c835…
04-18 14:50:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	330	16¢	$53	0x857328…
04-18 14:48:56	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x537d54…
04-18 14:37:30	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	Yes	SELL	248	18¢	$45	0x904e3b…
04-18 14:30:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xcd9de3…
04-18 11:24:24	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	153	74¢	$113	0x714054…
04-18 11:12:14	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x9ec3ef…
04-18 08:24:16	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 10m and 15m	Yes	SELL	19	93¢	$18	0x4c54b6…
04-18 08:02:32	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 10m and 15m	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x48d086…
04-18 08:01:32	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 10m and 15m	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xd58b1a…
04-18 07:04:38	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 10m and 15m	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbb49da…
04-18 06:38:44	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	SELL	25	42¢	$10	0xf55498…