Carefree-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.14K

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

80.6%

Resolved

Trades

102

lifetime

Volume

$30.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$301

Open exposure

$988

1 position

First seen

2026-01-25

last 09-07 07:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

54% 63% -$1,919

Sports

29% 73% -$1,332

Tech

17% 100% +$115

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		-1,000	-$978	99¢	$-988	-$10	06-11 01:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$3.0K	1,496	1,496	+0	Yes	+$6	04-23 14:58
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$2.0K	1,045	1,045	+0	No	+$69	04-13 03:01
Thunder vs. Spurs	3	$2.0K	1,064	1,064	+0	Spurs	+$139	05-29 03:01
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	3	$1.8K	942	942	+0	No	+$30	05-29 02:02
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	1	$1.7K	1,890	0	+1,890	Yes	+$190	07-03 00:55
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	1	$1.7K	1,725	0	+1,725	Yes	+$35	07-02 01:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	1	$1.5K	1,501	0	+1,501	No	+$14	04-23 15:11
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	2	$1.3K	1,410	0	+1,410	Yes	+$138	06-23 01:31
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.2K	4,010	0	+4,010	No	-$1,241	07-04 04:24
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	8	$1.0K	1,020	0	+1,020	Yes	+$11	05-29 12:36
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	4	$1.0K	1,413	0	+1,413	Yes	-$1,009	07-05 15:04
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	1	$990	1,100	0	+1,100	Knicks	-$990	06-11 01:51
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	1	$978	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	06-11 01:50
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	4	$843	910	0	+910	No	+$67	05-18 14:05
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	1	$815	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$815	06-25 03:09
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	3	$774	400	400	+0	Yes	+$20	06-05 02:07
Will England win on 2026-07-15?	1	$768	2,164	0	+2,164	No	-$768	07-15 01:07
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	1	$744	808	0	+808	Yes	+$65	07-07 01:25
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	1	$700	726	0	+726	Yes	+$26	09-07 07:55
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	1	$690	784	0	+784	No	+$94	06-25 06:55
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	1	$681	0	700	-700	No	-$19	05-27 02:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	1	$594	610	0	+610	Yes	+$16	06-10 15:34
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$485	255	255	+0	No	+$22	06-23 00:27
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$482	269	269	+0	Yes	+$30	04-15 01:14
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	3	$467	250	250	+0	No	+$23	05-27 02:08
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$387	228	228	+0	Yes	+$68	06-21 05:12
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$378	200	200	+0	No	+$22	06-21 05:12
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$314	0	2,229	-2,229	No	+$314	07-06 07:30
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$252	400	0	+400	Yes	+$148	06-03 04:46
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$186	0	203	-203	Yes	-$16	06-22 10:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 07:55:39	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	726	96¢	$700	0x751d46…
07-15 01:07:05	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	2,164	35¢	$768	0x7148e4…
07-07 09:43:11	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	101	20¢	$20	0x201e76…
07-07 01:25:59	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	808	92¢	$744	0x145ce4…
07-06 07:30:04	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,229	14¢	$314	0x3103e9…
07-06 02:37:01	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	No	BUY	38	89¢	$34	0x636d68…
07-05 15:04:29	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	800	72¢	$572	0x28e565…
07-05 15:04:22	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x4055d1…
07-05 15:04:17	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	500	71¢	$356	0x92aa40…
07-05 15:02:14	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	103	71¢	$73	0x5077c6…
07-04 04:24:53	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,000	35¢	$1,041	0x5a8aee…
07-03 00:55:44	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	1,890	90¢	$1,700	0xdce09b…
07-02 01:50:04	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	1,725	98¢	$1,690	0x676a69…
06-29 10:07:34	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0xfd521d…
06-25 06:55:16	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	784	88¢	$690	0x4f5db2…
06-25 06:49:17	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x9dd2a5…
06-25 03:09:25	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$815	0xfb58f7…
06-24 15:26:22	Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xbab106…
06-24 03:09:20	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x93bf38…
06-23 01:31:41	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	1,300	95¢	$1,235	0x34df0b…
06-23 00:29:19	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x6381f7…
06-23 00:27:41	Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	255	100¢	$253	0x2eabc6…
06-23 00:27:16	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	110	34¢	$37	0xbc5da9…
06-22 11:41:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	140	68¢	$95	0x498c31…
06-22 10:10:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,010	20¢	$200	0xb9e461…
06-22 10:06:41	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	203	92¢	$186	0x621165…
06-22 01:37:47	will nvda reach 264 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xae6b14…
06-21 05:12:35	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x202f36…
06-21 05:12:17	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	228	100¢	$227	0x808276…
06-20 16:14:10	Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xed7f8a…
06-11 01:51:45	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	1,100	90¢	$990	0xd58904…
06-11 01:50:24	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$978	0x484a01…
06-10 15:34:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	BUY	610	97¢	$594	0x2083c1…
06-06 02:58:01	Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0x4ad92a…
06-05 02:07:36	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	SELL	400	99¢	$397	0x7e1617…
06-04 08:52:09	Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	SELL	78	50¢	$39	0x594e06…
06-03 04:48:20	Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xc126a6…
06-03 04:46:17	Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	400	63¢	$252	0x010ba1…
06-01 14:54:05	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	224	70¢	$157	0xac28df…
06-01 14:41:33	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$2	0x8abbca…
06-01 14:41:12	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x22a6c9…
06-01 14:36:19	Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x5ce31f…
06-01 14:34:57	Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	255	91¢	$232	0xbaca4c…
06-01 14:20:20	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xe0305f…
06-01 14:20:10	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30?	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x167ca8…
05-29 12:36:19	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0xb87346…
05-29 12:36:17	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	280	99¢	$277	0xf58e06…
05-29 06:25:24	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	113	99¢	$111	0x37d98f…
05-29 04:53:37	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0x816dd8…
05-29 04:25:47	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	221	99¢	$218	0x832e8e…
05-29 04:22:03	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	120	99¢	$118	0x7a0e3c…
05-29 04:00:25	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x097b46…
05-29 03:34:25	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x62c447…
05-29 03:33:00	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x65a98a…
05-29 03:21:32	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x27842e…
05-29 03:21:16	Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x3a3441…
05-29 03:01:28	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	SELL	1,064	100¢	$1,063	0x7c8e9a…
05-29 02:10:53	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	760	90¢	$684	0x25a170…
05-29 02:02:15	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	SELL	697	99¢	$688	0x154eb1…
05-29 02:00:34	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	304	79¢	$240	0x619da9…
05-29 01:59:55	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	SELL	245	99¢	$242	0x534755…
05-28 02:34:58	Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	BUY	98	27¢	$27	0x21aced…
05-27 02:11:47	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	BUY	942	96¢	$900	0xa16842…
05-27 02:09:20	Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	No	SELL	700	97¢	$681	0x3589be…
05-27 02:08:37	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	No	SELL	250	98¢	$245	0x31ecd2…
05-21 02:14:34	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0xdec79c…
05-19 09:52:16	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	BUY	169	94¢	$159	0xce2a68…
05-19 09:07:23	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	BUY	231	94¢	$218	0x47a137…
05-18 14:05:08	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x4615f4…
05-18 14:05:06	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	600	93¢	$558	0xe865b4…
05-18 14:00:44	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xa60113…
05-17 08:42:27	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x5b07a6…
05-17 08:42:18	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x054dcb…
05-17 08:07:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	No	BUY	220	89¢	$196	0xe6eda9…
05-16 14:08:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xc959d7…
05-07 07:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xa81477…
05-07 07:42:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	34	98¢	$34	0x011726…
05-07 07:42:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x74009f…
04-23 15:11:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	1,501	99¢	$1,488	0x9467c4…
04-23 14:58:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,496	99¢	$1,487	0x684171…
04-15 08:50:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,496	99¢	$1,481	0x9f8d45…
04-15 01:14:36	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	269	95¢	$256	0x353b99…
04-13 03:01:45	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	1,045	100¢	$1,043	0x705ea4…
04-13 03:00:55	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	41	3¢	$1	0x76b240…
04-01 01:17:19	will hong kong have between 160 170mm of precipitation in march	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x813de1…
03-30 02:12:02	will hong kong have between 160 170mm of precipitation in march	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9ada0e…
03-27 03:02:23	will hong kong have less than 150mm of precipitation in march	Yes	SELL	25	33¢	$8	0x043f49…
03-22 04:32:07	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	269	84¢	$226	0x6812a4…
03-20 06:04:33	highest temperature in hong kong on march 22 2026 27corhigher	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x413444…
03-20 02:34:33	highest temperature in hong kong on march 21 2026 27corhigher	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x401506…
03-20 02:33:49	highest temperature in hong kong on march 21 2026 27corhigher	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x7ce2a9…
03-15 07:01:25	will hong kong have less than 150mm of precipitation in march	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xc38dd8…
03-15 06:46:01	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x41df94…
02-09 23:58:25	deepseek v4 released by february 28	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xfd6d45…
02-08 05:03:07	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0xab40c2…
02-08 05:02:59	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	711	93¢	$664	0xe4ec99…
02-08 05:02:51	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	35	93¢	$32	0xe0849a…
02-08 05:01:01	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	274	93¢	$255	0xd00c00…
01-25 04:19:48	will threads be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30	No	BUY	43	86¢	$37	0x3087d4…
01-25 04:19:32	will threads be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xd6c936…