Slim-Legislation-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$146

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

275

Trades

423

lifetime

Volume

$3.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 09-27 04:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 64% -$144

Other

7% 40% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	2	$33	25	24	+1	Up	+$14	04-26 15:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	3	$29	30	14	+17	Up	-$11	06-30 17:51
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	2	$29	260	260	+0	No	+$19	08-21 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	2	$25	19	19	+0	Up	-$5	05-21 02:10
highest temperature in london on april 19 2026 15c	3	$25	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	04-19 16:36
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	2	$25	21	21	+0	Up	-$5	05-21 02:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	2	$25	17	16	+1	Up	-$4	05-20 17:38
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	5	$25	15	15	+0	Up	+$5	05-13 20:59
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	2	$25	22	22	+0	Down	-$5	05-22 13:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	2	$25	23	22	+1	Up	-$4	05-22 16:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	2	$25	15	15	+0	Down	+$5	05-15 02:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	2	$25	15	15	+0	Up	+$5	05-14 04:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	2	$25	20	20	+0	Down	-$5	05-20 22:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	2	$25	21	20	+0	Down	-$5	05-21 05:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$25	21	21	+1	Down	-$5	05-21 01:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	2	$25	18	18	+0	Down	-$5	05-21 05:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	2	$25	18	17	+1	Up	-$5	05-22 10:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	3	$25	15	15	+0	Down	+$5	05-13 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	2	$25	17	17	+0	Up	-$5	05-22 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	2	$25	22	22	+0	Up	-$5	05-21 01:07
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	2	$25	15	15	+0	Down	+$5	05-19 11:41
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	2	$24	19	18	+1	Up	-$6	05-21 01:08
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	2	$24	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-12 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	2	$24	23	22	+1	Up	-$6	05-22 02:53
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	2	$24	17	17	+0	Up	-$6	05-21 00:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	3	$24	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-12 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	3	$24	14	14	-0	Up	+$4	05-14 04:14
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	2	$24	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-15 05:59
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	2	$24	15	15	+0	Up	+$4	05-21 18:24
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	4	$24	15	15	+0	Down	+$4	05-15 21:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-27 04:00:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$6	0x82006f…
09-25 18:17:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x6e7d91…
09-23 22:35:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x5ec5eb…
09-22 17:25:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xc7c177…
09-20 01:47:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x09d5ce…
09-19 14:38:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x5f58e4…
09-17 17:02:36	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x4bc771…
09-17 17:02:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x73006b…
09-16 16:41:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x9ee2e9…
09-15 16:20:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xe263c8…
08-21 23:50:21	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	9¢	$24	0x534ab4…
08-18 12:37:15	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	2¢	$5	0x4627cb…
08-18 12:30:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x66dea3…
08-17 10:51:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x02d43a…
07-01 11:24:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x893b5a…
07-01 11:07:41	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xe2f9b9…
07-01 10:52:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9430dc…
07-01 10:52:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x2d31b3…
07-01 10:26:22	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x4637b8…
07-01 10:26:20	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x41c4cd…
07-01 10:23:35	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xcdbdd7…
07-01 10:21:34	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x49b4bb…
07-01 09:52:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xb988c0…
07-01 09:52:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x181bc3…
07-01 09:08:02	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x59e930…
07-01 08:52:07	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:45 UTC	Down	SELL	6	56¢	$3	0x4c41dd…
07-01 08:50:13	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xfb82f1…
07-01 08:39:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:30 UTC	Down	SELL	6	40¢	$3	0xf6fcec…
07-01 08:37:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x8fa49d…
07-01 08:06:59	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x524172…
07-01 07:49:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xfe45a7…
07-01 07:49:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xfa11c9…
07-01 07:39:05	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xfa90b6…
07-01 07:39:05	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x7d4616…
07-01 07:07:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xfb18c2…
07-01 07:06:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x10a896…
07-01 06:20:59	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa3af75…
07-01 06:20:59	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x10bc06…
07-01 06:20:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x3b63c4…
07-01 06:03:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9a08e3…
07-01 06:03:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2a86cd…
07-01 06:03:38	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x412d4e…
07-01 04:53:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x72e46a…
07-01 04:51:02	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xa817ec…
07-01 04:03:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x77f49f…
07-01 04:03:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa863f1…
07-01 04:03:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x921957…
07-01 03:50:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x282da0…
07-01 03:36:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xaea9cf…
07-01 03:36:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6b900e…
07-01 03:23:13	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x02bc59…
07-01 03:21:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xe40556…
07-01 03:21:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7275c9…
07-01 03:11:23	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:00 UTC	Up	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0x27d050…
07-01 03:08:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x64bb85…
07-01 02:54:11	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xe63a54…
07-01 02:54:10	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x81ae49…
07-01 02:52:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xbc0ce0…
07-01 02:51:38	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x087e6c…
07-01 02:09:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x9f5f5d…
07-01 02:09:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x341c0b…
07-01 02:07:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x2eef63…
07-01 01:51:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 01:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8f937d…
07-01 01:37:41	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x379fe8…
07-01 01:37:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xf6146b…
07-01 01:37:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x931b15…
07-01 01:35:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x7f3425…
07-01 00:10:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xd02d78…
07-01 00:04:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x5140d6…
07-01 00:04:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1e3f63…
06-30 18:25:44	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:15 UTC	Up	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0xc5fec7…
06-30 18:25:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:15 UTC	Up	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x512698…
06-30 18:22:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x53df73…
06-30 18:20:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x45883c…
06-30 18:11:05	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:00 UTC	Up	SELL	11	76¢	$9	0xcedbdf…
06-30 18:10:59	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:00 UTC	Up	SELL	12	78¢	$9	0x2952a9…
06-30 18:09:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xa298c6…
06-30 18:09:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x73af80…
06-30 17:51:34	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xdfb32c…
06-30 17:50:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	Down	SELL	13	65¢	$9	0x94ee2f…
06-30 17:50:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	Down	SELL	14	67¢	$9	0xe01cc9…
06-30 17:50:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x06dcf7…
06-30 17:50:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xb6a7fa…
06-30 17:25:41	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0x4be7d9…
06-30 17:22:14	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xf1c966…
06-30 17:10:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:00 UTC	Up	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0xa2d8da…
06-30 17:09:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:00 UTC	Up	SELL	12	72¢	$8	0xedc2eb…
06-30 17:08:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x7716b2…
06-30 17:07:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x173d18…
05-23 12:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x9f4e2f…
05-23 12:25:00	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	61¢	$3	0x880244…
05-23 12:23:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x49199a…
05-23 12:22:50	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xad1f4e…
05-23 08:50:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x13bef2…
05-23 08:50:09	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xcd68fe…
05-23 07:09:53	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x728fcf…
05-23 07:08:01	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xdf66cb…
05-23 05:24:11	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x22f5d9…
05-23 04:39:07	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa2c74b…
05-23 00:13:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x8138bf…