Unknown-Craftsman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$91

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$189

Open exposure

$67

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-08 08:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 100% +$56

Other

35% 100% +$69

Politics

21% 83% -$218

Tech

3% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No		+68	$66	98¢	$67	+$1	10-08 08:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	2	$944	506	506	+0	No	+$34	02-07 06:04
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	1	$454	457	0	+457	No	+$3	02-24 12:43
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$344	347	0	+347	No	+$3	03-29 05:54
trump out as president by march 31	1	$321	327	0	+327	No	+$6	03-05 05:18
will solana dip to 50 february 2 8	1	$260	263	0	+263	No	+$3	02-07 06:07
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$250	256	0	+256	No	+$6	05-08 05:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$244	254	0	+254	Yes	-$244	05-08 05:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$233	237	0	+237	Yes	+$4	04-13 14:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$220	223	0	+223	No	+$3	04-13 14:17
will ethereum reach 3600 january 12 18	1	$215	215	0	+215	No	+$0	01-18 06:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$215	219	0	+219	Yes	+$4	06-01 12:21
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$212	214	0	+214	Yes	+$2	06-28 05:42
will ethereum dip to 1500 february 2 8	1	$200	204	0	+204	No	+$4	02-07 06:10
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$200	204	0	+204	No	+$4	05-09 08:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	1	$200	207	0	+207	No	+$7	04-24 08:26
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	1	$190	192	0	+192	No	+$2	01-24 01:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	1	$180	185	0	+185	No	+$5	05-08 05:30
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	1	$180	182	0	+182	No	+$2	04-13 14:32
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	1	$180	182	0	+182	No	+$2	04-13 14:21
will ethereum dip to 1000 in february 2026	1	$160	163	0	+163	No	+$3	02-07 06:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$155	165	0	+165	No	+$10	05-08 05:27
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$155	159	0	+159	No	+$4	03-05 05:15
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$150	172	0	+172	Yes	+$22	02-07 06:10
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	1	$144	145	0	+145	No	+$1	06-01 12:18
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	1	$133	139	0	+139	No	+$6	03-05 05:16
pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	1	$90	91	0	+91	No	+$1	07-15 07:28
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	1	$87	88	0	+88	No	+$1	09-10 07:24
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$80	81	0	+81	Yes	+$1	01-24 01:43
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	1	$77	78	0	+78	No	+$1	08-15 08:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	1	$70	71	0	+71	No	+$1	10-08 08:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 08:22:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x4ee2b6…
10-08 08:21:47	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	68	96¢	$66	0x5f7a2e…
09-10 07:25:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xf44ec4…
09-10 07:24:30	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x1a98ed…
08-15 08:54:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0xfbc039…
08-15 08:53:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x695649…
07-15 07:29:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	93¢	$44	0xa8396d…
07-15 07:28:52	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xd47def…
06-28 05:42:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	214	99¢	$212	0x0a2403…
06-01 12:21:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	219	98¢	$215	0x7dacae…
06-01 12:18:18	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0x7fa9ed…
05-09 08:40:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xaf931c…
05-08 05:30:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	185	97¢	$180	0xde2bdf…
05-08 05:29:10	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	256	98¢	$250	0x6172f4…
05-08 05:27:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	165	94¢	$155	0x9268e3…
05-08 05:26:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	254	96¢	$244	0x1b9f16…
04-24 08:26:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0x5e61b0…
04-13 14:32:11	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	BUY	182	99¢	$180	0x0c2bd5…
04-13 14:21:17	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	182	99¢	$180	0xdb50a4…
04-13 14:17:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	223	99¢	$220	0x049904…
04-13 14:08:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	237	98¢	$233	0x05d8a6…
03-29 05:54:16	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	347	99¢	$344	0x2c2364…
03-05 05:18:39	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	327	98¢	$321	0xbf1710…
03-05 05:16:31	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	BUY	139	96¢	$133	0x8f883c…
03-05 05:15:17	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	159	97¢	$155	0x8a3f37…
02-24 12:43:54	will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	No	BUY	457	99¢	$454	0x72b940…
02-07 06:10:51	will ethereum dip to 1500 february 2 8	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x32b426…
02-07 06:10:23	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	172	87¢	$150	0x7cb475…
02-07 06:08:51	will ethereum dip to 1000 in february 2026	No	BUY	163	98¢	$160	0x8fd3a6…
02-07 06:07:55	will solana dip to 50 february 2 8	No	BUY	263	99¢	$260	0x35c3b1…
02-07 06:04:29	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	506	97¢	$489	0xec15d0…
01-24 01:43:08	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	81	98¢	$80	0x71a103…
01-24 01:42:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0x9402d7…
01-18 06:59:48	will ethereum reach 3600 january 12 18	No	BUY	215	100¢	$215	0x1b0fe8…
01-18 06:53:28	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	506	90¢	$455	0x30285c…
01-18 06:52:58	highest temperature in seoul on january 18 7corhigher	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xcec3b9…