Fortunate-Equivalent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$165

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-18 18:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

86% 0% $-40

Crypto

9% 10% $-75

Sports

4% 0% $-50

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	11	$765	71,625	0	+71,625	open	—	05-11 18:28
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$133	8,796	0	+8,796	open	—	05-11 18:27
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$133	6,422	0	+6,422	open	—	05-11 18:27
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	2	$55	54,810	0	+54,810	open	—	05-18 18:18
Lakers vs. Thunder	2	$50	50,000	0	+50,000	Thunder	$-50	05-06 02:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$40	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	$-40	05-09 10:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	2	$20	1,121	0	+1,121	Down	$-20	05-10 05:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$20	96	0	+96	Up	$-20	05-10 06:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$15	404	404	+0	open	—	05-18 18:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	2	$12	173	0	+173	Down	$-12	05-10 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$11	174	0	+174	Down	$-11	05-10 06:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	1	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Up	$-10	05-10 05:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$10	34	0	+34	Up	+$24	05-10 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$10	42	0	+42	Down	$-10	05-09 05:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	1	$10	77	0	+77	Up	$-10	05-10 07:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	$-5	05-10 06:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	3	$3	101	1	+100	Down	$-1	05-10 11:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 18:18:16	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0x0def52…
05-18 18:10:52	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	4,810	0¢	$5	0x0b86fd…
05-18 18:05:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	404	1¢	$5	0xa60836…
05-11 18:28:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x2d115f…
05-11 18:28:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	13,332	1¢	$146	0xa52035…
05-11 18:27:34	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	5,500	1¢	$33	0x627160…
05-11 18:27:24	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	4,125	1¢	$33	0x855015…
05-11 11:34:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	10,280	1¢	$93	0x0ce94c…
05-11 07:10:39	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	7,994	1¢	$72	0xeb261f…
05-11 07:09:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	5,556	1¢	$50	0x6413a9…
05-11 07:09:29	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	5,556	1¢	$50	0xe18752…
05-11 07:09:29	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	5,556	1¢	$50	0x9776f6…
05-11 07:08:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	8,556	1¢	$77	0xb6e19d…
05-11 07:08:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	8,556	1¢	$77	0x4e86bf…
05-11 04:05:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	4,900	1¢	$49	0x244ba7…
05-10 11:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xdd378c…
05-10 11:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x50a878…
05-10 11:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe13882…
05-10 07:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x9f947b…
05-10 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	163	6¢	$10	0x5e2306…
05-10 06:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xbd4818…
05-10 06:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x424d08…
05-10 06:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x145b12…
05-10 06:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x361840…
05-10 06:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x489943…
05-10 06:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xea0b6d…
05-10 06:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x701c1c…
05-10 05:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x0f8000…
05-10 05:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xa57cdd…
05-10 05:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0x923f3c…
05-09 10:42:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x16ebc3…
05-09 10:42:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x25cea7…
05-09 10:42:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x3fad11…
05-09 10:42:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x37f5ab…
05-09 05:28:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	404	2¢	$10	0xbe5adb…
05-09 05:04:14	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	3,296	3¢	$100	0x6897c9…
05-09 05:04:10	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	2,297	4¢	$100	0x395a5c…
05-09 05:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x5377e1…
05-09 04:52:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x42d814…
05-06 02:59:10	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	40,000	0¢	$40	0x4ee1e7…
05-06 02:58:42	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc068b4…