Alive-Experiment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

120

Trades

169

lifetime

Volume

$1.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-27 15:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

52% 98% +$8

Politics

25% 88% -$28

Crypto

19% 100% +$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes		+1	$1	16¢	$0	-$1	10-27 15:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$111	57	57	+0	No	+$3	10-01 00:06
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	4	$106	53	53	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 12:44
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$93	47	47	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 03:49
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	3	$58	58	0	+58	No	+$0	10-01 04:01
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$57	57	0	+57	Yes	+$0	10-05 01:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$57	36	23	+13	No	+$1	08-27 14:46
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	1	$54	54	0	+54	Yes	+$0	09-23 09:56
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	1	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	09-17 16:59
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$53	54	0	+54	No	+$0	09-16 15:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	09-14 18:56
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$52	53	0	+53	No	+$0	09-05 17:33
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	08-05 01:40
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$46	48	0	+48	No	+$1	08-13 18:04
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$43	44	0	+44	No	+$1	08-21 01:57
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$42	51	0	+51	No	-$42	10-15 10:14
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	09-01 05:37
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	08-28 17:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$31	32	0	+32	No	+$0	07-31 20:15
googl above 260 on march 31 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	03-31 13:02
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	04-29 12:16
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	1	$23	24	0	+24	No	+$0	05-30 17:36
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	05-13 07:57
will xrp dip to 1 in february 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	02-28 06:14
will openais valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	06-29 14:00
meta above 840 on february 27 2026	2	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	02-24 22:41
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	1	$17	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-16 11:46
will xauusd reach 4800 in august 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	08-29 04:41
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	06-28 22:34
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	02-28 23:38
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	1	$12	13	0	+13	No	+$0	05-28 17:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:15:32	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xcc82b4…
10-21 00:32:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0x25602e…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	51	82¢	$42	0x887af5…
10-08 15:39:56	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x5e1aac…
10-05 01:37:11	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xce3d33…
10-01 04:01:50	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5b24ea…
10-01 03:50:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x56963c…
10-01 03:27:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x88bac1…
10-01 00:06:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0x6dc903…
09-24 14:45:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0x25b952…
09-23 09:56:10	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x7c9fe5…
09-17 16:59:42	Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x112024…
09-16 15:38:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$53	0x6bfa1f…
09-14 18:56:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x305b01…
09-10 12:44:30	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4cec44…
09-10 12:31:15	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd924a0…
09-10 10:56:09	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xd371d5…
09-09 18:30:10	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0x73d243…
09-05 17:33:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x95ace0…
09-01 05:37:25	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x4f549c…
08-29 04:41:49	will xauusd reach 4800 in august 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xc01995…
08-28 17:28:42	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x690137…
08-27 20:03:21	will ethereum reach 3100 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe09cee…
08-27 14:46:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x9547da…
08-27 07:34:57	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x37722f…
08-27 01:25:48	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x762e5b…
08-26 16:34:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x524d69…
08-25 08:45:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x97d464…
08-23 11:59:42	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1aadb8…
08-21 16:04:27	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	0¢	$0	0x1d88bd…
08-21 15:44:16	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x941d07…
08-21 15:20:27	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x10cd91…
08-21 14:53:15	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xa6652c…
08-21 14:53:09	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2b1c0f…
08-21 01:57:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x8f7c5e…
08-20 11:14:04	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	0¢	$0	0xcc9b8e…
08-20 11:11:24	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x1d8f58…
08-20 11:10:12	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0x63d652…
08-20 03:42:15	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x2efb56…
08-19 23:53:28	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2d9c39…
08-19 15:14:12	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9b002b…
08-16 12:52:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x71043e…
08-16 12:42:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x9e4405…
08-16 12:42:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0xf68d92…
08-16 12:42:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0xa9a09d…
08-16 12:41:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x303eb6…
08-16 12:40:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe50a1c…
08-16 12:40:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x8069d5…
08-16 12:34:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xbc2587…
08-16 12:34:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x16c973…
08-16 12:34:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x29aa63…
08-16 12:34:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xfda444…
08-16 12:34:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xf67cf1…
08-16 12:34:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc301f2…
08-16 12:34:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa0f227…
08-16 12:34:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x531bcf…
08-16 12:34:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x0df9cf…
08-16 12:30:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd93eb7…
08-16 12:30:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2268d5…
08-16 12:28:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x85b435…
08-16 12:25:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x2b50b4…
08-16 11:56:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x26884b…
08-16 11:54:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xc7f595…
08-16 11:50:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x4cca2a…
08-16 11:41:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x6a584d…
08-16 11:24:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf901f8…
08-16 11:24:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x8ad945…
08-13 18:04:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	48	98¢	$46	0x3f460d…
08-13 03:49:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	47	100¢	$46	0x491ebd…
08-10 04:25:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$46	0x194ca8…
08-09 16:22:01	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x439293…
08-07 22:43:12	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdf1a60…
08-05 01:40:02	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x319905…
07-31 20:15:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0x2bbbb2…
07-30 06:32:08	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7f36f1…
07-29 22:02:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfc852a…
07-29 10:39:54	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc9a413…
07-27 19:06:51	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8e1f4b…
07-27 12:05:15	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x206a12…
07-25 23:04:52	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8313a4…
07-24 19:07:24	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x111f11…
07-24 10:56:45	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc38cc8…
07-23 15:18:19	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2e1efd…
07-21 13:53:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfe4bfa…
07-17 10:06:34	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x195786…
07-13 04:37:23	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x38c7eb…
06-29 14:00:40	will openais valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3e3eb9…
06-29 05:20:56	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x91c4a1…
06-28 22:34:14	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x477b2e…
06-27 01:52:04	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xcad817…
06-26 21:36:23	will coin reach 200 in june 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3951c9…
05-30 17:36:59	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0x5ea0d9…
05-28 17:36:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x441289…
05-21 14:51:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf94f7d…
05-17 20:52:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe8711b…
05-16 11:46:54	Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$17	0xe1f198…
05-15 20:00:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfd2ad8…
05-15 16:47:11	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7ef41e…
05-13 07:57:00	Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc34357…
05-09 18:34:31	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd9c7e1…