Curvy-Instinct 0x48654b…e9904d
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$6.22K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.53K
Hit rate
66.0%
Resolved
1,875
Trades
3,874
lifetime
Volume
$269.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$69
Open exposure
$18.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 09-25 06:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 178 days
Categories
Other
76% 72% -$5,227
Sports
13% 67% -$780
Politics
9% 14% -$140
Tech
1% 0% -$59
Crypto
1% 25% -$10
Pop-Culture
0% 50% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
12 active days in 12wk • peak 409 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +2,927 $1,608 92¢ $2.7K +$1,099 09-24 23:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696 No +1,866 $1,210 96¢ $1.8K +$581 09-23 13:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,909 $1,259 88¢ $1.7K +$430 09-24 18:09
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +1,398 $1,132 98¢ $1.4K +$238 09-25 05:03
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +1,031 $532 98¢ $1.0K +$481 09-24 10:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +857 $708 94¢ $801 +$93 09-24 22:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 No +1,203 $478 63¢ $762 +$284 09-24 09:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +811 $332 94¢ $762 +$431 09-23 15:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +811 $333 94¢ $758 +$425 09-23 15:25
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +800 $544 86¢ $684 +$140 09-23 09:06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +800 $662 84¢ $676 +$14 09-24 21:03
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +592 $363 90¢ $533 +$170 09-19 14:05
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 Yes +1,203 $729 37¢ $441 -$288 09-24 08:44
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +599 $381 66¢ $398 +$17 09-24 16:41
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +499 $305 79¢ $394 +$89 09-20 10:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +598 $183 60¢ $356 +$173 09-24 09:38
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +393 $250 74¢ $291 +$41 09-24 18:44
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +500 $375 56¢ $282 -$92 09-24 11:35
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +400 $258 66¢ $266 +$8 09-24 11:14
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +413 $282 62¢ $254 -$28 09-25 03:57
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +403 $278 60¢ $244 -$34 09-25 00:05
israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 415 Yes +599 $423 40¢ $243 -$181 09-24 09:08
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No +300 $213 74¢ $220 +$8 09-24 20:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +1,909 $662 12¢ $219 -$443 09-24 17:39
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +499 $132 44¢ $217 +$85 09-24 12:05
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +2,827 $1,428 8¢ $212 -$1,216 09-24 23:42
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +385 $222 54¢ $209 -$13 09-24 22:52
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +598 $225 34¢ $200 -$25 09-24 16:45
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +248 $191 80¢ $197 +$6 09-24 23:27
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +208 $154 94¢ $195 +$41 09-23 19:36