Long-Hood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

Trades

13,315

lifetime

Volume

$1.83M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$137

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 08-09 18:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Politics

54% 64% +$18

Other

42% 39% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 213 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	94	$48.0K	28,946	26,548	+2,399	open	—	05-11 09:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	101	$36.0K	36,134	36,134	+0	open	—	04-04 00:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	111	$33.0K	39,883	40,438	-555	open	—	05-31 10:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	73	$32.6K	17,014	17,014	+0	open	—	04-04 22:05
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	157	$30.4K	24,864	23,305	+1,559	open	—	03-30 20:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	112	$29.0K	25,129	25,129	+0	open	—	03-31 01:44
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	37	$23.9K	13,812	13,812	+0	open	—	04-28 20:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	34	$21.7K	14,649	14,649	+0	open	—	04-24 11:19
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	142	$20.9K	14,450	14,389	+62	open	—	03-29 14:46
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	90	$20.8K	18,215	18,653	-438	open	—	06-18 18:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	47	$20.4K	10,792	10,792	+0	No	+$21	05-10 13:07
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	53	$17.8K	9,519	9,519	+0	open	—	05-26 04:00
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	25	$17.8K	10,417	10,417	+0	open	—	04-16 05:50
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	33	$17.6K	10,682	10,682	+0	open	—	04-15 14:31
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	95	$16.4K	13,648	13,648	+0	open	—	04-06 13:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	32	$16.1K	9,915	9,915	+0	open	—	03-31 16:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	44	$15.8K	15,741	15,741	+0	open	—	06-03 19:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	43	$15.7K	8,072	8,566	-494	open	—	05-22 13:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	36	$15.3K	11,946	11,946	+0	open	—	04-28 15:27
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	57	$14.5K	13,271	13,271	+0	open	—	05-11 07:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	28	$13.8K	8,072	8,172	-100	open	—	05-25 12:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	29	$13.2K	9,458	9,458	+0	open	—	04-18 12:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	41	$13.1K	10,236	10,236	+0	open	—	05-22 12:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	52	$12.4K	7,031	6,628	+403	open	—	05-23 20:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	12	$12.1K	7,943	7,943	+0	open	—	06-15 08:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	35	$11.8K	9,413	9,413	+0	open	—	03-30 23:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	56	$11.7K	7,065	7,065	+0	open	—	04-25 08:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	26	$11.6K	6,365	6,365	+0	open	—	04-21 05:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	45	$11.5K	6,105	6,335	-230	No	$-23	05-03 20:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	19	$11.5K	6,231	6,231	+0	open	—	04-13 05:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 21:43:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0xd160ea…
08-09 21:42:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xf45cf8…
08-09 21:31:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	508	91¢	$462	0x66a1b3…
08-09 21:14:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	456	92¢	$420	0xabb075…
08-09 21:14:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	56	92¢	$52	0xefb93b…
08-09 21:13:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	512	92¢	$471	0x3d98ba…
08-09 21:09:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x905616…
08-09 21:09:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0xa5a8aa…
08-09 21:08:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	521	91¢	$474	0x426d18…
08-09 20:45:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	771	5¢	$39	0xa9eee4…
08-09 20:44:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	133	5¢	$7	0x31eb01…
08-09 20:43:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	904	5¢	$45	0x52c421…
08-09 20:40:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	518	92¢	$476	0x8bedb6…
08-09 20:39:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	518	92¢	$476	0x1f0a49…
08-09 18:51:28	will mysaria die in the house of the dragon season 3 finale 20260807034401074	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xb78768…
08-09 18:46:01	will mysaria die in the house of the dragon season 3 finale 20260807034401074	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xfe452d…
08-09 17:41:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0x2f8d7d…
08-09 17:38:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	260	8¢	$21	0x21acbe…
08-09 15:29:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x4239fd…
08-09 12:22:49	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 31 20260808192512607	Yes	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0x73e5f7…
08-09 12:15:34	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 31 20260808192512607	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xd1c5e1…
08-09 12:07:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xe2d497…
08-09 11:32:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0xa5bbc1…
08-09 10:50:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xc7644b…
08-09 09:43:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	300	88¢	$262	0xf3b1dd…
08-09 09:42:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	56	88¢	$49	0xf21996…
08-09 09:42:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x0bbaf8…
08-09 09:30:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	525	88¢	$459	0x68bd29…
08-09 08:14:36	iran leadership change by august 22	No	SELL	355	96¢	$340	0xb28393…
08-09 08:05:24	iran leadership change by august 22	No	SELL	154	96¢	$148	0x806d92…
08-09 07:52:57	iran leadership change by august 22	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0xc07661…
08-09 07:52:30	iran leadership change by august 22	No	BUY	520	96¢	$499	0xa7e200…
08-09 01:33:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xa49c0a…
08-09 01:29:06	will sam rockwell be nominated for best actor at the 99th academy awards	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x8aa33d…
08-08 23:32:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x72f247…
08-08 23:31:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x8a9b05…
08-08 21:32:36	will the next google gemini pro model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher 20260729192434648	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0xe12bb6…
08-08 20:09:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	312	64¢	$200	0x835ae2…
08-08 19:33:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	200	93¢	$187	0x710df4…
08-08 18:00:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	295	89¢	$262	0xa88fb1…
08-08 18:00:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xab01f0…
08-08 17:59:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	304	89¢	$271	0x9aead5…
08-08 17:19:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	773	89¢	$688	0x808d28…
08-08 17:12:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	309	81¢	$250	0x4b97c4…
08-08 17:06:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0x07b218…
08-08 17:06:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	773	89¢	$688	0xdf863a…
08-08 16:48:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	124	90¢	$112	0xbfbaeb…
08-08 16:48:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	124	90¢	$112	0xab0de6…
08-08 15:10:19	will kai or speed die to a creeper 20260806175301183	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x0761ba…
08-08 15:10:19	will kai or speed be eliminated by an explosion 20260807142948636	Yes	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x0223b7…
08-08 14:42:30	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260805160021492	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x138954…
08-08 13:21:07	will kai or speed be eliminated by an explosion 20260807142948636	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x79e238…
08-08 09:02:31	will kai or speed die to a creeper 20260806175301183	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x91328d…
08-08 08:28:42	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x71f271…
08-07 20:54:52	over 17pt5m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831382	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x43e605…
08-07 19:04:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	200	90¢	$179	0x2f2798…
08-07 19:01:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	90¢	$179	0xffd2c5…
08-07 18:05:57	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x3738fd…
08-07 18:05:30	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x65d1ec…
08-07 18:03:51	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x7dc99b…
08-07 17:59:40	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x49668e…
08-07 17:48:46	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x3c827f…
08-07 17:48:22	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd23e08…
08-07 17:36:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x95fe73…
08-07 17:35:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x23c4c6…
08-07 17:15:42	will karim benzema attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630270	Yes	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xe99477…
08-07 17:15:16	will karim benzema attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630270	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x182a68…
08-07 17:14:01	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	19	57¢	$11	0x92556c…
08-07 17:08:28	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x28594a…
08-07 17:00:24	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	103	93¢	$96	0xae5ace…
08-07 16:58:31	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0x01ded6…
08-07 16:58:16	over 12pt5m committed to the ryvo public sale 20260804200831380	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xa86065…
08-07 16:44:13	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260805160021492	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xe6838f…
08-07 16:39:39	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	103	91¢	$94	0xc39ad0…
08-07 16:25:34	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	103	91¢	$94	0xb62d8d…
08-07 16:13:51	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	103	94¢	$97	0x60c946…
08-07 16:13:19	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	103	94¢	$97	0x4195a6…
08-07 16:06:31	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	103	93¢	$96	0x9c0c5c…
08-07 16:06:09	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0xb4b31b…
08-07 15:58:21	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	103	93¢	$96	0xb51b72…
08-07 15:57:58	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	103	93¢	$95	0x9f437c…
08-07 15:36:34	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	29	6¢	$2	0xd38916…
08-07 15:25:42	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x15ef1d…
08-07 15:23:31	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x0ffab9…
08-07 15:16:54	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0xdf88fe…
08-07 15:08:49	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0xc84311…
08-07 15:05:36	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x4b5302…
08-07 15:00:43	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	39	57¢	$22	0xc028e6…
08-07 14:58:57	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x31936c…
08-07 14:49:37	spy closes above 760 on august 7 2026	No	SELL	105	2¢	$2	0x38c7ba…
08-07 14:30:43	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x47ec8a…
08-07 14:19:13	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x5972b8…
08-07 14:16:46	spy up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x975cd1…
08-07 14:16:25	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x5d236e…
08-07 14:15:55	spy up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	95	68¢	$65	0x6b2ac1…
08-07 14:13:34	wti up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x7184ad…
08-07 14:13:33	spy up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xe05911…
08-07 14:12:07	spy up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	110	68¢	$75	0xc6c4de…
08-07 13:56:34	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x1e1257…
08-07 13:52:01	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Up	SELL	125	80¢	$100	0xeafc4a…