Disloyal-Ellipse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$445

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

44.4%

Resolved

1,946

Trades

2,392

lifetime

Volume

$19.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 21:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 267 days

Categories

Sports

67% 41% +$473

Other

32% 34% +$16

Crypto

1% 25% -$38

Politics

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+164	$9	3¢	$5	-$4	10-20 08:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Zama auction clearing price above $0.06?	3	$154	100	100	+0	No	+$2	01-23 09:09
cs2 navi mglz 2026 02 17 game1	2	$135	100	100	+0	Natus Vincere	+$25	02-17 12:58
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)	3	$119	100	100	+0	Baltimore Orioles	+$3	05-07 23:27
ucl fra1 tot 2026 01 28 tot	2	$83	60	60	+0	Yes	+$13	01-28 21:16
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$81	100	0	+100	Yes	+$19	02-18 08:35
cs2 b8 aur1 2026 02 17 total games 2pt5	2	$70	50	50	+0	Under	+$21	02-17 13:40
uel pao1 cel4 2026 02 19 total 2pt5	2	$60	43	43	+0	Over	+$20	02-19 18:36
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$59	100	100	+0	No	+$15	07-19 21:07
nba por sas 2026 04 19 spread home 10pt5	1	$55	100	0	+100	Spurs	+$45	04-19 22:05
vbvnl jap2 usa 2026 08 01	6	$55	58	58	+0	USA	+$3	08-01 14:01
epl wol ars 2026 02 18 spread away 1pt5	6	$52	100	0	+100	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	-$52	02-17 17:40
mlb col mil 2026 07 24 total 9pt5	1	$50	121	0	+121	Under	-$50	07-24 17:37
nba phx okc 2026 04 19 total 215pt5	3	$49	98	0	+98	Under	-$49	04-18 23:54
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$48	101	0	+101	No	-$48	02-18 08:38
mlb nyy bos 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	1	$48	100	0	+100	Boston Red Sox	-$48	06-25 09:40
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-16?	2	$43	30	30	+0	Yes	+$16	09-16 21:04
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers	1	$43	100	0	+100	Houston Astros	+$57	05-28 23:41
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?	1	$40	85	0	+85	No	-$40	05-12 22:13
Mavericks vs. Rockets	1	$38	80	0	+80	Mavericks	-$38	10-11 10:13
nba atl nyk 2026 04 20 spread home 5pt5	1	$38	75	0	+75	Hawks	-$38	04-20 09:31
nba tor cle 2026 04 20 spread home 8pt5	1	$38	75	0	+75	Cavaliers	+$37	04-20 09:28
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5	2	$38	75	0	+75	Over	-$38	05-01 13:03
elc wre hul 2026 03 10 total 2pt5	2	$35	23	23	+0	Over	+$11	03-10 23:24
nba min bos 2026 03 22 spread home 9pt5	2	$35	25	25	+0	Timberwolves	+$10	03-23 00:45
itc ata laz 2026 04 22 ata	1	$34	50	0	+50	No	-$34	04-22 20:24
nba min den 2026 04 20 total 231pt5	2	$33	65	0	+65	Over	-$33	04-20 09:29
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	3	$32	57	20	+37	Under	-$8	05-20 19:38
mlb col stl 2026 08 09 f5 spread home 1pt5	1	$31	80	0	+80	St. Louis Cardinals	+$49	08-09 14:26
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03?	6	$31	50	30	+20	No	-$7	05-03 10:52
cs2 navi fut 2026 03 14 game2	1	$30	50	0	+50	FUT Esports	-$30	03-14 14:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 21:04:30	Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x3a4a8c…
10-30 20:57:42	Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)	Swansea City AFC	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x293fb3…
10-30 20:56:01	Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x30b230…
10-30 20:55:10	Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)	AFC Bournemouth	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xe491df…
10-30 20:54:15	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x03108c…
10-30 20:53:46	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0xe7c439…
10-30 20:53:21	Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)	Tottenham Hotspur FC	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x6d7b53…
10-30 20:52:51	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	25	35¢	$9	0xdcf64e…
10-30 20:11:15	Will Sheffield United FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x7cb5c6…
10-30 17:18:00	Pacers vs. Heat	Pacers	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x4849ad…
10-30 15:28:54	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0x83794d…
10-30 15:22:49	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x1a56d8…
10-29 21:59:42	Spread: Bruins (-1.5)	Bruins	BUY	31	29¢	$9	0xdc0205…
10-29 21:55:22	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x8fa1c5…
10-29 21:46:30	Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x848d1b…
10-29 21:42:00	BC Dubai vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv	Hapoel Tel Aviv	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0x50247d…
10-29 16:40:29	Kings vs. Pelicans	Kings	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x8fd3c9…
10-29 10:25:49	Real Madrid vs. Fenerbahce	Fenerbahce	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0xb309c3…
10-29 10:13:46	Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xd33bd7…
10-29 10:13:44	Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x07d68e…
10-29 10:09:32	Exact Score: SC Austria Lustenau 0 - 1 SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0xb7cd62…
10-29 10:09:19	Exact Score: SC Austria Lustenau 0 - 2 SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz?	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x5558e1…
10-29 10:07:28	Spread: Frosinone Calcio (-1.5)	Frosinone Calcio	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x1f4cda…
10-29 10:07:20	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xc4cea8…
10-29 09:48:02	Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs ZOTIX (BO1) - Circuito Retake Group C	ZOTIX	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x984605…
10-29 09:45:34	Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x94d6d7…
10-29 09:43:58	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x23dca5…
10-29 09:13:08	Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketball	Paris Basketball	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x7d2806…
10-28 21:57:14	Spread: Devils (-1.5)	Devils	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0x7b7fe4…
10-28 21:56:34	Flames vs. Oilers	Flames	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x5a3eb1…
10-28 19:25:10	1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x8795dd…
10-28 16:51:38	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	Knicks	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xeb278c…
10-28 16:48:52	Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)	Mavericks	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x5398cd…
10-28 16:25:01	Virtus Bologna vs. Zalgiris Kaunas	Zalgiris Kaunas	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x60e690…
10-28 16:24:55	ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Partizan	Partizan	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x296f30…
10-28 16:24:44	Besiktas vs. Olympiacos B.C.	Olympiacos B.C.	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x11f4d2…
10-28 16:20:31	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	Juventus FC	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x1e58ce…
10-28 16:19:37	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	Juventus FC	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x414af8…
10-27 23:19:18	Spread: Predators (-1.5)	Predators	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xc12784…
10-27 22:59:30	Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)	Golden Knights	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x5505a7…
10-27 22:59:17	Spread: Predators (-1.5)	Predators	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x3241d0…
10-27 22:58:48	Spread: Blues (-1.5)	Blues	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x9b8722…
10-27 22:57:03	Bruins vs. Hurricanes	Bruins	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x4918bc…
10-27 22:13:11	1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xc966fc…
10-27 22:12:41	Jackson Chourio: Total Bases O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb1395b…
10-27 21:25:20	Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xa71e68…
10-27 21:23:14	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x49b87d…
10-27 21:22:17	Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)	Liverpool FC	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0xee6394…
10-27 21:21:59	Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x5ac7e0…
10-27 21:21:41	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x248ed5…
10-27 21:20:47	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x761cf6…
10-27 09:39:08	Spread: Spurs (-18.5)	Spurs	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x76392b…
10-27 09:38:15	Spread: Pistons (-2.5)	Pistons	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0xf40eb3…
10-27 09:34:29	FC Bayern Munchen vs. Barcelona	Barcelona	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x67eaf9…
10-26 23:24:39	Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)	Maple Leafs	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x79753d…
10-26 22:21:14	Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)	1. FSV Mainz 05	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0xbaa975…
10-26 22:16:59	Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xa06a5b…
10-26 22:01:24	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	MOUZ	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x696dc7…
10-26 21:56:00	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	MOUZ	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x3933ea…
10-26 21:38:51	cs2 tl1 aur1 2026 10 27	Liquid	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x40c4e7…
10-26 21:30:29	cs2 tl1 aur1 2026 10 27	Liquid	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x4c66e1…
10-26 21:23:24	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A	TheMongolz	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xd1268d…
10-26 21:16:21	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x1fb08c…
10-26 20:07:26	Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0xe9d0c5…
10-26 17:17:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$0	0xce51c1…
10-26 17:17:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	18	26¢	$5	0x98d0ce…
10-26 14:27:33	Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)	HNK Hajduk Split	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x877956…
10-26 12:40:33	Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xf6cc81…
10-26 11:10:24	Mavericks vs. Heat	Mavericks	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xcb104e…
10-26 11:00:30	Spread: Pakhtakor (-1.5)	Pakhtakor	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xa52174…
10-26 10:59:14	Spread: Al Qadsiah (-1.5)	Al Qadsiah	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x445588…
10-26 03:47:20	Milwaukee Brewers winning after 5 innings?	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0xd7968c…
10-26 03:47:20	Milwaukee Brewers winning after 5 innings?	Yes	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0xce8795…
10-26 03:47:20	Milwaukee Brewers winning after 5 innings?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa4d6fd…
10-25 23:11:08	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Liquid	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x9337f1…
10-25 22:48:20	Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5)	Universitatea Craiova CS	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xf84c8a…
10-25 15:13:03	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x082ed3…
10-25 15:10:30	Spread: Pistons (-2.5)	Pistons	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x4c4d80…
10-25 13:00:35	Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x041226…
10-25 12:33:33	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x142e77…
10-25 12:31:47	Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	FC Internazionale Milano	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x5c729f…
10-25 12:28:33	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xb08eaf…
10-25 12:20:24	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x060426…
10-25 11:58:26	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	Manchester United FC	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x7382d4…
10-25 11:57:53	Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xcc59df…
10-25 11:57:27	Spread: Union Saint-Gilloise (-2.5)	Union Saint-Gilloise	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x985b6d…
10-25 11:56:18	Spread: PAOK Thessaloniki (-1.5)	PAOK Thessaloniki	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xfc36dc…
10-24 14:26:17	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x383527…
10-24 14:25:45	Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x64057f…
10-24 14:25:21	Spread: Wrexham AFC (-1.5)	Wrexham AFC	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0x2c35c5…
10-24 14:24:42	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xdc054f…
10-23 20:27:17	Spread: Pistons (-5.5)	Pistons	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x0fe936…
10-23 18:53:50	Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xf33f35…
10-23 12:29:50	Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A	Inner Circle	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0xd2ed21…
10-23 10:34:53	Will RNK Veres Rivne win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0x03fed5…
10-23 10:34:51	Will RNK Veres Rivne win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0xc733dc…
10-23 08:44:54	Pistons vs. Heat	Pistons	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb45fcf…
10-23 08:42:08	Mavericks vs. Pacers	Mavericks	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xc83189…
10-23 08:37:05	Rockets vs. Spurs	Rockets	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x06be86…
10-23 07:28:17	Spread: Granada CF (-1.5)	Granada CF	BUY	34	20¢	$7	0xdce343…