Full-Steel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.74K

Unrealized P&L

-$43

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

1,107

Trades

3,094

lifetime

Volume

$40.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-22

last 11-03 19:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 27% -$4,309

Politics

14% 21% -$2,490

Other

9% 51% +$192

Sports

3% 52% -$131

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 368 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+179	$50	4¢	$7	-$43	11-01 08:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	15	$1.5K	2,334	0	+2,334	No	-$1,481	11-03 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	7	$1.2K	4,217	1,745	+2,472	Up	+$201	05-14 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$960	838	838	+0	Up	+$700	05-14 21:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	6	$794	4,822	822	+4,000	Up	+$234	05-14 22:30
wbc usa mex 2026 03 09	5	$603	334	334	+0	USA	+$65	03-10 03:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	8	$504	1,465	727	+737	Up	+$116	05-14 21:54
Iran leadership change by April 30?	10	$489	1,702	1,702	+0	No	-$111	04-16 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	5	$476	425	425	+0	Up	+$366	05-17 01:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	10	$443	1,341	554	+787	Down	+$93	05-14 21:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$432	300	300	+0	Yes	+$32	02-28 19:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	7	$400	4,814	0	+4,814	Down	-$400	05-14 22:53
cbb tenn mich 2026 03 29	4	$384	220	219	+1	Michigan Wolverines	+$45	03-29 19:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$356	375	375	+0	Yes	-$11	03-08 11:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	7	$312	2,584	1,516	+1,069	Down	-$88	05-14 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	6	$303	596	497	+100	Down	+$119	05-17 01:35
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	6	$286	940	0	+940	No	-$286	11-02 16:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	8	$284	1,111	384	+727	Down	-$53	05-17 01:39
cbb mia pur 2026 03 22	3	$281	160	159	+1	Purdue Boilermakers	+$38	03-22 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	6	$275	806	355	+451	Down	-$4	05-14 20:19
will uae strike iran by march 31	4	$271	302	302	+0	No	-$74	03-09 14:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	5	$263	745	335	+411	Up	+$123	05-17 00:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	7	$259	1,439	939	+500	Down	+$39	05-14 20:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	5	$259	4,892	0	+4,892	Down	-$259	05-14 21:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	7	$250	2,081	0	+2,081	Up	-$250	05-17 01:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	6	$243	1,139	689	+450	Up	+$77	05-17 01:50
cbb uconn duke 2026 03 29	3	$241	182	181	+1	Connecticut Huskies	+$122	03-29 23:42
iran leadership change by march 31	5	$239	800	800	+0	No	-$111	03-23 01:36
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	7	$235	6,025	0	+6,025	No	-$235	11-03 07:11
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22	2	$235	294	293	+1	Iowa State Cyclones	+$35	03-22 18:57
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21	3	$233	126	125	+0	Arkansas Razorbacks	+$17	03-22 06:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 19:34:46	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?	Yes	BUY	667	0¢	$2	0x16703c…
11-03 07:11:10	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	493	4¢	$20	0x4d6c28…
11-03 06:30:28	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x0e24fb…
11-03 06:30:19	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	1,220	4¢	$50	0x3ad07b…
11-03 06:29:58	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x023cde…
11-03 06:29:49	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,173	1¢	$10	0xc873ae…
11-03 06:29:27	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?	Yes	BUY	3,333	1¢	$20	0x8f7ab1…
11-03 06:28:45	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	301	60¢	$180	0x20bca9…
11-03 06:28:21	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	2,439	4¢	$100	0x8e330d…
11-02 17:27:39	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	643	28¢	$180	0x0606af…
11-02 17:06:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	62¢	$60	0x5dee9f…
11-02 17:05:55	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	760	3¢	$20	0x5f3ad1…
11-02 17:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0xcb0413…
11-02 17:02:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x5ec143…
11-02 17:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	77	25¢	$19	0xe16b46…
11-02 17:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x6e21e1…
11-02 17:00:01	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0x40d7dd…
11-02 16:58:42	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$10	0xf5b063…
11-02 16:58:13	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,689	1¢	$10	0x97dad8…
11-02 16:58:07	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,302	1¢	$10	0x59ec27…
11-02 16:57:28	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0xe9b3cd…
11-02 16:56:45	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	26¢	$56	0xabd323…
11-01 21:15:40	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	488	4¢	$20	0x3fbeaa…
11-01 21:15:19	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,353	1¢	$18	0x0f0cc3…
11-01 20:27:25	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?	Yes	BUY	625	1¢	$5	0x29295e…
11-01 20:27:18	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	766	1¢	$5	0xefaab2…
11-01 20:27:10	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x7ffa07…
11-01 20:27:03	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	455	1¢	$5	0x9497f5…
11-01 20:26:57	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?	Yes	BUY	625	1¢	$5	0xb145aa…
11-01 20:26:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,427	1¢	$10	0x17004f…
11-01 20:12:52	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0xfa8bbb…
11-01 20:11:37	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	67¢	$40	0x266597…
11-01 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,467	1¢	$10	0x8c26d5…
11-01 20:11:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	925	1¢	$10	0x746d13…
11-01 20:10:46	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x26a60a…
11-01 15:08:54	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	68¢	$23	0x5bdfee…
11-01 11:28:37	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x08075b…
11-01 10:34:12	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$20	0x929942…
11-01 10:31:37	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xf78db3…
11-01 10:30:52	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0xedebc5…
11-01 10:22:33	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x05ede4…
11-01 10:21:57	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0x80e626…
11-01 10:21:13	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0xdac439…
11-01 10:20:58	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xe73494…
11-01 10:20:42	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	68¢	$60	0x986f9e…
11-01 10:20:27	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	SELL	400	28¢	$112	0xc41d46…
11-01 10:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x42c1d1…
11-01 10:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xbfa62f…
11-01 08:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x14c909…
11-01 08:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xcb7f54…
11-01 08:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x888552…
11-01 08:01:34	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	67¢	$100	0x3920d6…
11-01 08:00:46	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xd5451d…
11-01 07:59:21	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	346	3¢	$10	0x816934…
11-01 07:58:51	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	33¢	$50	0xefc116…
11-01 07:58:25	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	444	67¢	$300	0x5c1025…
10-31 18:01:19	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	662	3¢	$19	0x4cfe96…
10-31 18:01:07	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x66fd14…
10-31 17:59:01	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xad048f…
10-31 12:25:00	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x772162…
10-30 19:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x63f5e6…
10-30 19:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0x4f2b29…
10-30 19:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x0338cf…
10-30 19:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	13	80¢	$11	0x0ad612…
10-30 19:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x59fafe…
10-30 19:57:10	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	62¢	$33	0x6e277c…
10-30 19:41:12	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0xc06377…
10-30 19:35:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	267	30¢	$80	0x219d14…
10-30 19:32:30	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	31¢	$40	0x3be8de…
10-30 19:31:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0x02705e…
10-30 19:31:13	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	62¢	$70	0xb3885a…
10-30 19:28:09	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0xb73634…
10-30 19:21:25	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	19¢	$22	0xfb00bc…
10-30 14:27:24	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x4bb148…
10-30 14:26:57	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	62¢	$70	0x462804…
10-28 12:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	21	10¢	$2	0x20d8b2…
10-28 12:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xe9eab8…
10-28 12:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x66fed3…
10-28 12:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xfe4ffd…
10-28 12:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x62c60f…
10-28 12:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf0f61a…
10-28 12:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x4bea8e…
10-28 12:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xb5c5c9…
10-28 12:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	52¢	$1	0x4f3dd8…
10-28 12:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc2e8b4…
10-28 12:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa972c2…
10-28 12:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x9aae55…
10-28 12:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9e0f12…
10-28 12:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xc1607e…
10-28 12:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x941ab7…
10-28 12:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc579b8…
10-28 12:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xd37ca8…
10-28 12:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x77355b…
10-28 12:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x845e88…
10-28 12:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x0bf3d8…
10-28 12:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0xd8ff5c…
10-28 12:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xfb02a0…
10-28 12:24:31	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xb795f2…
10-27 02:17:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc4e266…
10-27 02:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xd09dd8…