Improbable-Civilisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$176

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved

4,735

Trades

6,219

lifetime

Volume

$15.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 09-18 19:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 54% -$112

Other

8% 44% -$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 170 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
solana up or down march 15 2026 12pm et	14	$48	47	40	+8	Down	-$1	03-15 16:27
bitcoin up or down april 4 2026 4am et	11	$44	45	29	+16	Down	+$1	04-04 09:46
bitcoin up or down april 4 2026 5am et	8	$43	45	44	+1	Up	-$2	04-04 09:45
bitcoin up or down april 4 2026 7am et	6	$35	35	34	+1	Down	-$1	04-04 11:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 07:10 UTC	13	$34	65	0	+65	Up	-$4	04-04 07:14
wta muchova krejcik 2026 07 05 first set total 9pt5	2	$34	34	0	+34	Over	+$0	07-05 13:31
ethereum up or down march 15 2026 12pm et	14	$32	50	43	+7	Down	+$5	03-15 16:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 06:55 UTC	6	$29	25	15	+10	Down	$0	04-04 06:59
bitcoin up or down march 14 1pm et	17	$27	30	29	+0	Down	+$1	03-14 17:21
wta muchova noskova 2026 07 11	1	$24	110	0	+110	Linda Noskova	-$24	07-11 17:14
solana up or down march 13 10am et	5	$21	17	17	+0	Down	+$12	03-13 14:57
bitcoin up or down march 15 2026 12pm et	8	$20	26	26	+0	Down	-$1	03-15 16:22
Spread: Serbia (-1.5)	4	$19	12	12	+0	Cabo Verde	$0	05-31 14:10
solana up or down march 14 1pm et	14	$19	24	23	+0	Down	$0	03-14 17:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 14:45 UTC	3	$17	109	109	+0	Down	+$1	02-20 14:48
England leading at halftime?	6	$16	17	17	+0	Yes	$0	06-10 13:48
xrp up or down march 15 2026 12pm et	6	$16	19	19	+0	Down	-$2	03-15 16:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 06:35 UTC	6	$16	30	0	+30	Down	-$1	04-04 06:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 07:50 UTC	4	$15	30	0	+30	Up	$0	04-04 07:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 15:50 UTC	6	$15	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	04-03 15:54
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30?	5	$15	18	12	+6	Yes	-$2	05-31 01:49
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?	4	$14	12	12	+0	No	$0	05-30 12:22
bitcoin up or down march 13 12pm et	7	$13	15	15	+0	Up	+$1	03-13 16:50
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score	4	$12	12	12	+0	No	$0	05-31 14:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:00 UTC	5	$12	30	0	+30	Up	-$6	03-28 16:04
ethereum up or down march 13 10am et	4	$12	11	9	+2	Down	+$5	03-13 14:57
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31?	4	$12	12	12	+0	No	$0	05-31 14:13
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 15:15 UTC	3	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	03-17 15:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 13:00 UTC	2	$12	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	03-21 13:06
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 15:15 UTC	2	$12	6	6	+0	Up	+$0	03-17 15:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 19:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0xcd59e1…
09-18 19:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5d95da…
09-18 19:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xcf5701…
09-18 19:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb3e2d9…
09-18 19:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7aee2b…
09-18 18:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5f5a18…
09-18 18:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5e91cf…
09-18 18:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xea7121…
09-18 18:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6a9462…
09-18 18:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2781b7…
09-18 18:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x1d5556…
09-18 18:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x069681…
09-18 17:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8f6211…
09-18 17:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe5fd57…
09-18 17:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x691267…
09-18 16:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7d4915…
09-18 16:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5e4864…
09-18 16:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6819ed…
09-18 16:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x77539c…
09-18 15:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9d50db…
09-18 15:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x78659c…
09-18 15:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf6b5c8…
09-18 14:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8a2dc1…
09-18 14:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1ae098…
09-18 14:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa99b78…
09-18 13:47:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8ec8ee…
09-18 13:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x391f9d…
09-18 13:10:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7616d7…
09-18 13:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6f8b52…
09-18 12:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2f6315…
09-18 12:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x212d1e…
09-18 12:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x05462e…
09-18 11:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb5c6cd…
09-18 11:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x5b5e3c…
09-18 11:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3bcf0e…
09-18 11:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x32d453…
09-18 11:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3c0a8a…
09-18 10:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xa9ed7b…
09-18 10:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x45a607…
09-18 10:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf67a9a…
09-18 10:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x465733…
09-18 10:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf5c4e4…
09-18 10:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb2c995…
09-18 10:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1d16bd…
09-18 10:13:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1d0051…
09-18 10:13:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xcb5c83…
09-18 09:59:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xbce0e4…
09-18 09:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xab33a1…
09-18 09:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb64f4a…
09-18 09:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x45aba8…
09-18 09:43:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7e6531…
09-18 09:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x29f73c…
09-18 09:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbef7bc…
09-18 09:21:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7ccb4d…
09-18 09:00:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xcbbb81…
09-18 08:52:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x3f8d28…
09-18 08:32:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 08:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x5a2665…
09-18 08:23:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xaf1a5f…
09-18 08:14:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x327f73…
09-18 08:07:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xefd8e4…
09-18 05:50:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x459735…
09-17 20:37:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x1a73ee…
09-16 11:14:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xfd0689…
09-16 11:14:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xd36580…
09-16 11:09:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xcd244e…
09-16 11:04:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x2e6406…
09-16 10:59:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xdc6112…
09-16 10:59:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x715ffa…
09-16 10:59:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xd89617…
09-16 10:54:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc041ea…
09-16 10:44:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x482104…
09-16 10:44:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe79903…
09-16 10:39:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xf847bd…
09-16 10:39:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x84cc93…
09-16 10:34:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x41f2a3…
09-16 10:24:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc4ec4e…
09-16 10:19:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc3f51a…
09-16 10:14:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb9de19…
09-16 10:09:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x834b4b…
09-16 10:00:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa10cbd…
09-16 09:59:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4f2e32…
09-16 09:54:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xba3406…
09-16 09:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xfb4a81…
09-16 09:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6b55ec…
09-16 09:45:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x298d17…
09-16 09:39:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe6b6f1…
09-16 09:34:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x36d28d…
09-16 09:34:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0x5ac9de…
09-16 09:29:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x9451cf…
09-16 09:24:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xdc7c35…
09-16 09:19:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x621484…
09-16 09:14:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9d293f…
09-16 09:09:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4a3d46…
09-16 09:04:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3d2f4b…
09-16 09:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xddedf5…
09-16 09:00:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-16 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xaf9769…
09-16 08:59:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x067a78…
09-16 08:54:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa7facb…
09-16 08:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6f117a…
09-16 08:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0dad2e…