Essential-Interchange — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.77K

Unrealized P&L

-$129

Hit rate

49.2%

Resolved

Trades

285

lifetime

Volume

$159.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$558

Open exposure

$707

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 09-30 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

70% 25% -$5,160

Politics

30% 45% +$402

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% 0% -$27

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes		-738	-$599	96¢	$-705	-$106	09-30 16:00
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes		+108	$25	2¢	$2	-$23	06-16 21:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	35	$34.5K	30,434	30,434	+0	No	-$3,621	03-17 19:35
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	25	$33.3K	24,819	20,304	+4,516	Yes	+$909	03-30 01:48
will the us invade iran by march 31	7	$22.3K	12,368	12,368	+0	No	+$412	03-29 17:43
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	6	$15.5K	10,325	10,325	+0	Yes	-$1,084	04-01 17:20
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	2	$6.0K	4,420	4,420	+0	open	—	09-30 16:00
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$4.2K	7,586	7,586	+0	No	-$1,026	03-09 13:25
will khamenei tweet again on march 13 2026 858	8	$3.5K	3,827	0	+3,827	Yes	+$357	03-12 14:52
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	3	$3.4K	2,857	2,857	+0	open	—	05-27 23:12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$2.8K	4,704	4,704	+0	No	+$28	03-30 16:17
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	10	$2.8K	7,417	7,417	+0	No	-$185	03-11 13:04
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$2.3K	2,381	0	+2,381	No	+$81	03-14 05:35
will khamenei tweet again on march 18 2026 365 885	11	$2.1K	1,341	1,339	+1	Yes	-$106	03-18 14:33
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	2	$1.9K	2,672	2,672	+0	No	-$393	03-09 14:24
spx up or down on march 13 2026	11	$1.8K	4,327	0	+4,327	Down	+$2,551	03-13 14:57
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	2	$1.6K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$40	05-21 15:47
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	4	$1.4K	1,951	1,951	+0	Yes	-$429	03-06 15:01
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	6	$1.3K	1,421	1,421	+0	No	-$31	03-31 15:03
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	2	$1.3K	1,379	1,379	+0	No	-$303	06-13 23:25
Iran leadership change by April 30?	3	$1.1K	4,451	4,451	+0	No	-$64	04-01 07:00
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$1.1K	8,740	8,740	+0	No	-$91	03-26 23:56
spx opens up or down on march 12 2026	3	$1.1K	678	678	+0	Down	+$305	03-12 14:00
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	2	$1000	1,493	0	+1,493	Yes	+$493	06-16 15:04
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?	1	$981	2,281	0	+2,281	Yes	+$1,300	02-27 20:00
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	2	$885	585	585	+0	Yes	+$285	03-08 22:02
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	2	$800	1,153	0	+1,153	Yes	+$353	06-10 18:01
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	6	$670	4,499	0	+4,499	No	-$670	03-16 01:07
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	2	$610	1,818	1,818	+0	open	—	09-30 16:00
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	1	$599	0	738	-738	open	—	09-30 16:00
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	3	$583	1,729	634	+1,096	No	-$317	05-16 16:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	2	$572	1,006	1,006	+0	open	—	05-24 14:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-30 16:00:30	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,818	23¢	$410	0xc07b0c…
09-30 16:00:21	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	738	81¢	$599	0x136e9a…
09-30 16:00:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,420	79¢	$3,491	0x6066d0…
06-23 16:11:40	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	BUY	4,420	57¢	$2,500	0x2b2809…
06-17 18:34:40	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x51eece…
06-16 21:20:02	Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xad060c…
06-16 15:04:22	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	746	67¢	$500	0xb7d50e…
06-15 23:07:21	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	746	67¢	$500	0x77be02…
06-13 23:25:13	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	SELL	1,379	36¢	$497	0x47d0f1…
06-13 01:04:10	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	1,379	58¢	$800	0x52d063…
06-10 18:01:58	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	429	70¢	$300	0x3c51a2…
06-08 23:17:34	Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x401e7b…
06-08 23:15:21	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	725	69¢	$500	0x83815b…
06-02 22:37:14	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	924	1¢	$8	0x3f1250…
05-27 23:12:43	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,857	75¢	$2,156	0x8b3694…
05-24 14:04:41	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,006	37¢	$372	0x94c673…
05-21 15:47:12	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4,000	19¢	$760	0x110c4a…
05-19 18:12:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,818	11¢	$200	0xbecf58…
05-19 18:12:11	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	952	42¢	$400	0x27aca6…
05-19 18:11:47	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,905	42¢	$800	0x6a2b2f…
05-19 18:11:15	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,006	20¢	$200	0x8ea9ef…
05-16 16:39:08	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,096	37¢	$400	0xa04a14…
05-07 00:42:19	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	634	21¢	$133	0x46f721…
05-03 15:11:08	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	634	8¢	$50	0x9a39d1…
05-02 14:00:10	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,000	20¢	$800	0x7820e5…
04-16 19:45:44	spx opens up or down on april 17 2026	Down	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x650cd6…
04-14 16:35:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	901	11¢	$100	0x4f08b5…
04-14 16:35:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	1,887	26¢	$500	0x6ea0bd…
04-09 19:25:45	spy up or down on april 10 2026	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0x1bf79e…
04-09 18:43:27	spx opens up or down on april 10 2026	Down	BUY	178	51¢	$90	0xe3ffd7…
04-09 18:42:55	spx opens up or down on april 10 2026	Down	BUY	205	49¢	$100	0x669ee2…
04-01 17:20:05	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5,363	65¢	$3,486	0xb3b021…
04-01 07:00:57	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4,451	12¢	$536	0x31cbe2…
04-01 03:35:41	spx up or down on april 1 2026	Down	BUY	628	48¢	$300	0xc0d665…
03-31 22:04:53	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,308	13¢	$300	0x003179…
03-31 20:29:53	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,143	14¢	$300	0xf4c8cc…
03-31 18:14:49	will annual inflation increase by 3pt2 in march	Yes	BUY	1,322	15¢	$200	0x8f394c…
03-31 18:14:11	will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	No	BUY	549	55¢	$300	0xaa3430…
03-31 15:03:07	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	530	26¢	$137	0x448761…
03-30 23:56:15	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	167	78¢	$130	0x9024c5…
03-30 21:03:29	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,046	77¢	$3,115	0x46ff22…
03-30 17:58:25	will annual inflation increase by 3pt2 in march	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x1af3fa…
03-30 16:17:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,552	30¢	$466	0x1befe9…
03-30 15:22:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	3,152	31¢	$962	0x183705…
03-30 14:56:17	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	697	30¢	$210	0x308c3e…
03-30 01:48:56	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x6930bd…
03-30 01:48:36	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	1,111	81¢	$900	0xd65d78…
03-30 01:48:26	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	723	83¢	$600	0x76573d…
03-30 01:39:34	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	2,437	86¢	$2,100	0x4ee8e0…
03-29 19:59:00	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7,473	83¢	$6,205	0x345c6d…
03-29 18:37:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4,031	30¢	$1,200	0xe3c8f6…
03-29 17:43:08	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	7,885	94¢	$7,405	0x451ffe…
03-29 17:41:30	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,936	75¢	$1,452	0xa532c0…
03-29 17:40:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	673	30¢	$200	0xd64fae…
03-29 16:58:14	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	1,178	94¢	$1,111	0x7bc270…
03-27 22:41:29	meta above 640 on march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	270	1¢	$3	0x2c5df7…
03-27 21:23:25	will annual inflation increase by 3pt2 in march	Yes	BUY	1,194	17¢	$200	0x946881…
03-27 21:17:41	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	916	67¢	$613	0xd01510…
03-27 15:20:23	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	916	70¢	$641	0x134a49…
03-27 00:04:37	spx opens up or down on march 27 2026	Up	BUY	142	71¢	$100	0xe56c99…
03-26 23:56:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	SELL	5,594	6¢	$336	0x5d3fda…
03-26 22:59:21	spx up or down on march 27 2026	Up	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0xf94d5e…
03-26 22:53:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	SELL	3,146	6¢	$174	0x6ecf02…
03-24 13:27:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	8,740	7¢	$600	0x050f9f…
03-24 13:26:51	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	1,119	85¢	$955	0x1e8c94…
03-23 21:26:47	will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$9	0xcaa95f…
03-23 21:26:29	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	Yes	SELL	131	40¢	$53	0x1fd685…
03-23 15:06:11	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	Yes	SELL	95	47¢	$44	0x802545…
03-23 15:02:39	will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	Yes	SELL	169	14¢	$23	0x2ffd18…
03-23 15:02:17	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	Yes	SELL	88	49¢	$43	0x5d826b…
03-20 15:30:43	meta above 630 on march 20 2026	Yes	SELL	263	0¢	$1	0xff855a…
03-20 15:30:19	meta above 620 on march 20 2026	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0xf1b7a4…
03-19 19:16:19	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	5,687	90¢	$5,114	0xa39996…
03-19 19:15:53	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	7,795	66¢	$5,114	0xf282b7…
03-19 19:07:21	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	4,494	90¢	$4,027	0x8af3a1…
03-19 18:29:11	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	1,596	75¢	$1,201	0xcf267f…
03-19 17:41:01	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	3,130	78¢	$2,438	0x616201…
03-19 17:40:41	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	724	54¢	$389	0x6a29bc…
03-19 15:59:31	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	281	66¢	$185	0xed96a4…
03-19 15:58:05	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	443	65¢	$290	0x0cdf51…
03-19 15:57:29	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	Yes	SELL	244	98¢	$239	0xb3a923…
03-19 15:57:03	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	2,294	82¢	$1,880	0xd25d94…
03-19 15:56:49	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	2,186	86¢	$1,873	0xdd4b2a…
03-19 01:12:47	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	Yes	SELL	51	13¢	$7	0x9e4634…
03-18 23:35:19	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	3,282	82¢	$2,682	0x5f2005…
03-18 22:51:21	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	1,647	79¢	$1,300	0x3b02a1…
03-18 21:53:55	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	831	84¢	$700	0xb349cd…
03-18 21:53:29	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	831	84¢	$700	0x69bb54…
03-18 21:01:09	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	2,530	87¢	$2,200	0xfd15fa…
03-18 17:28:15	spx up or down on march 18 2026	Up	BUY	725	14¢	$100	0x7a3f51…
03-18 17:07:59	spx up or down on march 18 2026	Up	BUY	1,200	17¢	$200	0x7352ba…
03-18 14:33:31	will khamenei tweet again on march 18 2026 365 885	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x398995…
03-18 14:01:05	will khamenei tweet again on march 18 2026 365 885	Yes	SELL	536	75¢	$402	0xcdef14…
03-18 14:00:51	will khamenei tweet again on march 18 2026 365 885	Yes	SELL	804	76¢	$607	0xd982d7…
03-18 12:40:53	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xefbeb5…
03-18 03:46:51	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	Yes	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x541756…
03-18 03:41:07	will khamenei tweet again on march 18 2026 365 885	Yes	BUY	378	85¢	$320	0x36fd0f…
03-18 03:27:43	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	1,806	65¢	$1,176	0x63a288…
03-18 01:50:07	will three people dissent the march fed decision	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x93a755…
03-18 01:34:41	will khamenei tweet again on march 18 2026 365 885	Yes	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x250fa5…