Probable-Demur — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 05-11 07:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 85% +$26

Other

10% 100% +$13

Sports

4% 100% +$1

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	4	$150	154	0	+154	Up	+$4	05-09 13:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	4	$140	146	0	+146	Down	+$6	05-09 05:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	4	$130	131	0	+131	Down	+$1	05-09 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	2	$120	136	0	+136	Down	+$16	05-11 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$110	125	0	+125	Down	+$15	05-10 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$110	111	0	+111	Up	+$1	05-09 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	1	$110	111	0	+111	Down	+$1	05-09 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	1	$110	111	0	+111	Down	+$1	05-10 15:09
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	1	$100	109	0	+109	open	—	04-29 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	1	$100	104	0	+104	Up	+$4	05-10 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$100	115	0	+115	Down	+$15	05-08 11:57
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	1	$100	112	0	+112	TheMongolz	+$12	05-09 08:47
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	05-06 21:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	3	$61	31	31	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 10:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	1	$50	53	0	+53	Up	$-50	05-08 12:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	3	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	05-08 10:29
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?	3	$50	51	0	+51	Yes	+$1	05-07 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	4	$42	45	26	+19	Up	+$0	05-09 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	2	$40	22	22	+0	Down	+$0	05-09 18:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	3	$40	43	0	+43	Up	+$3	05-09 12:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	3	$40	46	0	+46	Down	+$6	05-09 06:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	2	$30	37	0	+37	Up	+$7	05-11 05:28
Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?	2	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-07 20:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	1	$24	28	0	+28	Down	+$4	05-10 10:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$23	15	15	+0	Down	+$3	05-10 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	1	$20	28	0	+28	Down	+$8	05-07 20:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	1	$20	24	0	+24	Up	+$4	05-07 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$20	21	0	+21	Up	+$1	05-09 13:39
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	05-07 20:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 07:55:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	11	77¢	$9	0xb79795…
05-11 07:41:48	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x8e8e61…
05-11 07:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	122	90¢	$110	0xea850d…
05-11 07:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x021f89…
05-11 07:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xa20f08…
05-11 05:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x72acb1…
05-11 05:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xcb5944…
05-10 17:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xa47120…
05-10 17:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x56812b…
05-10 15:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xd89a4d…
05-10 14:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x3a2382…
05-10 13:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x30e1cf…
05-10 13:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x250c94…
05-10 13:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0xdd9f75…
05-10 13:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa96e65…
05-10 10:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0x2e8f4d…
05-10 10:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x4b7fa2…
05-10 06:39:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x533d41…
05-09 21:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x91510b…
05-09 20:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x4cb779…
05-09 20:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x9a8cd0…
05-09 20:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xbd54ef…
05-09 20:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xa29460…
05-09 20:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c3478…
05-09 20:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xab1bd7…
05-09 18:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xe2de1a…
05-09 18:42:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xad7a23…
05-09 18:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x2dd32b…
05-09 18:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x20d2a9…
05-09 14:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x70e238…
05-09 14:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	26	44¢	$12	0x7ba656…
05-09 14:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x8203f0…
05-09 14:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc7aeda…
05-09 14:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x2d447d…
05-09 13:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x418771…
05-09 13:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x34f956…
05-09 13:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe113dc…
05-09 13:57:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	123	97¢	$120	0x57a47a…
05-09 13:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x0ca914…
05-09 13:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x8f6eb0…
05-09 13:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb947c1…
05-09 13:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbfea61…
05-09 13:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x7fb753…
05-09 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x32f70f…
05-09 12:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x755c18…
05-09 12:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x0ff856…
05-09 12:23:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x27924d…
05-09 12:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x570200…
05-09 08:47:53	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	TheMongolz	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xb3c2bc…
05-09 06:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x36bde3…
05-09 06:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa00eb2…
05-09 06:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6a74ec…
05-09 06:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x7a30b4…
05-09 06:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf0cdfd…
05-09 06:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x3dc5d1…
05-09 06:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x59822c…
05-09 05:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xc9bf29…
05-09 05:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8582d9…
05-09 05:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xc1a303…
05-09 05:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x8d15b6…
05-08 12:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x391367…
05-08 11:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x5d0eae…
05-08 10:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x366986…
05-08 10:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x91f714…
05-08 10:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd45a33…
05-08 10:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xd11d77…
05-08 10:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x255da3…
05-08 10:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xca18a4…
05-08 09:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb7cd97…
05-08 09:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x9a681b…
05-07 20:49:37	Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x89eafa…
05-07 20:46:33	Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfc6a11…
05-07 20:43:37	Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0c8430…
05-07 20:43:09	Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x8d3ddf…
05-07 20:39:30	Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x12224b…
05-07 20:25:30	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd85f58…
05-07 20:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xf767d3…
05-07 18:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xd2f17c…
05-06 21:01:02	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x962477…
04-29 14:30:56	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x9a9f70…
04-21 15:48:20	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on april 19 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc473d2…