Emotional-Council — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$42.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$8.17K

Hit rate

83.3%

Resolved

138

Trades

972

lifetime

Volume

$1.79M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.84K

Open exposure

$50.8K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-23 14:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

47% 73% +$849

Politics

37% 67% -$17,599

Sports

9% 69% -$19,962

Tech

6% 69% -$6,853

Crypto

1% 80% +$1,466

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No		+38,663	$30,930	96¢	$37.3K	+$6,380	10-04 01:40
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No		+13,766	$11,704	98¢	$13.5K	+$1,787	10-23 14:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$109.8K	56,214	56,214	+0	No	+$2,337	07-03 16:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	17	$83.3K	48,394	40,208	+8,186	No	+$4,526	07-01 02:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$45.2K	23,403	23,403	+0	No	+$1,491	06-01 01:39
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	230	$43.2K	47,227	0	+47,227	Yes	+$4,011	01-23 01:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	4	$40.3K	20,833	20,833	+0	Yes	+$271	05-25 02:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	3	$38.4K	39,314	0	+39,314	No	+$953	09-01 09:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$37.4K	33,601	10,894	+22,708	Yes	-$896	07-24 08:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	5	$36.6K	19,428	19,428	-0	No	+$2,258	06-01 05:23
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$36.0K	18,715	18,715	+0	No	+$944	07-16 04:10
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	5	$34.5K	18,100	18,100	+0	No	+$1,567	08-20 14:53
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	16	$34.4K	17,782	17,782	+0	No	+$1,171	06-15 05:43
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	11	$34.1K	18,100	18,100	+0	No	+$1,930	08-03 13:09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	1	$30.9K	38,663	0	+38,663	open	—	10-04 01:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$30.0K	30,500	0	+30,500	Yes	+$518	04-14 02:11
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	7	$29.5K	25,049	6,349	+18,700	No	+$1,241	08-16 15:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	3	$27.7K	28,985	0	+28,985	No	+$1,245	09-01 09:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	5	$27.5K	16,095	12,393	+3,702	No	+$862	08-08 02:51
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	17	$27.5K	19,012	10,508	+8,504	No	+$1,994	07-04 23:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	3	$27.0K	28,613	0	+28,613	No	+$1,590	08-21 09:25
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	15	$26.5K	18,743	11,293	+7,451	No	+$3,381	07-07 07:42
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	5	$26.2K	29,968	0	+29,968	No	+$3,724	08-20 15:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$26.1K	13,304	13,304	+0	No	+$392	05-24 12:15
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	15	$25.0K	17,200	17,200	+0	No	-$4,831	06-23 15:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$23.1K	13,158	13,158	+0	No	+$3,132	07-30 08:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	4	$22.9K	25,593	0	+25,593	Yes	-$22,902	09-09 16:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	7	$22.2K	23,837	0	+23,837	Yes	+$1,636	08-10 07:46
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	6	$22.2K	11,340	11,340	-0	No	+$382	08-03 13:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	5	$20.9K	15,814	13,519	+2,295	No	-$5,041	07-27 02:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$20.2K	10,343	10,343	+0	Yes	+$221	05-24 12:19
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$20.1K	11,313	11,313	+0	No	+$45	07-11 17:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 14:31:05	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,750	80¢	$3,000	0x9d91be…
10-23 14:30:51	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,337	79¢	$1,846	0x40951d…
10-04 01:40:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38,663	80¢	$30,930	0xd41bce…
09-09 16:10:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,670	94¢	$6,270	0xf051a6…
09-09 16:09:30	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,222	92¢	$2,041	0x306913…
09-09 16:09:09	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	10,844	96¢	$10,385	0x2b23c2…
09-01 09:45:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	24,075	97¢	$23,350	0x0f474e…
09-01 09:43:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,258	89¢	$3,789	0x3b0066…
09-01 09:43:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	BUY	1,500	98¢	$1,466	0x10e87b…
09-01 09:42:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	BUY	2,150	98¢	$2,099	0x7e0d62…
09-01 09:42:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	BUY	35,664	98¢	$34,797	0x20d816…
09-01 09:36:24	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,349	89¢	$2,088	0x0bb166…
09-01 09:33:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20,077	94¢	$18,872	0xd810d1…
09-01 04:29:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,651	43¢	$2,000	0xa0c3dd…
09-01 04:24:55	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,108	88¢	$2,729	0x2f627e…
09-01 04:21:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8,427	88¢	$7,416	0x84f133…
09-01 04:21:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,238	87¢	$5,427	0x6b17a7…
09-01 04:14:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	1,413	96¢	$1,356	0x12e7c0…
08-21 09:27:13	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	6,997	93¢	$6,500	0x31d4b1…
08-21 09:26:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	72¢	$2,880	0x32c03f…
08-21 09:25:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	15,324	98¢	$14,979	0x5afac9…
08-20 15:02:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	1,400	96¢	$1,344	0x6d2d70…
08-20 15:01:48	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	10,409	93¢	$9,675	0x21b187…
08-20 15:01:24	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	1,159	92¢	$1,066	0x482aa7…
08-20 15:00:22	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	8,856	66¢	$5,888	0xd14028…
08-20 14:53:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	18,100	100¢	$18,010	0xad0b50…
08-16 15:25:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	11,889	90¢	$10,700	0x82b989…
08-16 15:22:28	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	7,890	98¢	$7,717	0x4e006d…
08-16 15:19:30	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	9,184	98¢	$9,000	0x25f2ad…
08-16 15:19:00	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3,260	98¢	$3,190	0xc45245…
08-16 15:14:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,650	74¢	$1,221	0xb7d237…
08-11 12:13:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	3,488	86¢	$3,000	0xc3ef58…
08-11 12:10:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	58¢	$870	0xcd9306…
08-10 07:59:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	1,966	99¢	$1,950	0xbfd4b3…
08-10 07:58:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	781	64¢	$500	0xce7eb2…
08-10 07:58:01	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	1,658	88¢	$1,459	0xaeda57…
08-10 07:57:37	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	2,837	87¢	$2,468	0x9b82f5…
08-10 07:52:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,031	64¢	$4,500	0x58e2bd…
08-10 07:46:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,261	93¢	$3,963	0xa294e5…
08-09 14:15:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	1,910	95¢	$1,814	0x55998c…
08-09 14:14:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	2,659	80¢	$2,127	0x87e772…
08-09 03:47:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	9,158	95¢	$8,700	0xfb6697…
08-09 03:46:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	SELL	8,698	100¢	$8,683	0x411931…
08-08 14:03:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	4,000	91¢	$3,640	0x0b0338…
08-08 14:02:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xf77039…
08-08 13:53:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	167	96¢	$160	0x8c0db4…
08-08 13:50:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	134	96¢	$129	0x0a4412…
08-08 13:47:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	697	96¢	$669	0xdced2b…
08-08 03:04:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	5,672	90¢	$5,105	0x0872bc…
08-08 03:03:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	6,349	95¢	$6,038	0xe62daf…
08-08 02:56:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	4,200	91¢	$3,822	0xd4587e…
08-08 02:54:43	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,216	96¢	$1,166	0xd21e92…
08-08 02:54:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	916	90¢	$824	0x8aa328…
08-08 02:53:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x1aa3d8…
08-08 02:53:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x188b6c…
08-08 02:53:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	3,437	80¢	$2,750	0xea0be7…
08-08 02:52:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	2,009	79¢	$1,587	0xcca7e3…
08-08 02:52:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	84	90¢	$76	0x5297e6…
08-08 02:52:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	2,430	90¢	$2,187	0x95cd68…
08-08 02:51:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	SELL	12,393	100¢	$12,338	0x19568e…
08-07 15:54:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,500	88¢	$1,320	0x65fb2c…
08-07 15:53:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,500	92¢	$3,220	0x92cd5d…
08-07 15:52:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0x79700a…
08-03 13:13:51	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	7,452	94¢	$7,000	0x4d60db…
08-03 13:13:21	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4,476	41¢	$1,833	0x9f66b7…
08-03 13:12:59	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8,920	99¢	$8,860	0x326c32…
08-03 13:11:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,950	94¢	$7,473	0x59fba0…
08-03 13:10:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	2,711	81¢	$2,193	0xf71686…
08-03 13:10:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x18ec74…
08-03 13:10:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	5,856	95¢	$5,580	0x56e7d9…
08-03 13:09:14	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	SELL	15,316	99¢	$15,237	0x357dbc…
08-03 13:08:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5,900	88¢	$5,184	0x0d0254…
08-03 13:06:48	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	2,420	100¢	$2,417	0xf62e0d…
08-03 13:06:23	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	SELL	2,784	100¢	$2,782	0xd31575…
08-01 14:00:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6,700	94¢	$6,298	0x6d96fa…
08-01 13:56:20	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	3,496	87¢	$3,033	0x4f3d1d…
08-01 03:39:23	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	3,700	92¢	$3,404	0x5ae4f6…
08-01 03:38:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,004	95¢	$954	0x9ea86a…
08-01 03:36:18	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	5,003	92¢	$4,603	0xb02f83…
08-01 03:33:41	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	647	91¢	$588	0xc26396…
07-30 22:18:00	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	6,099	17¢	$1,037	0xed3b7b…
07-30 22:17:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	3,986	22¢	$874	0xede23e…
07-30 11:36:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	2,850	98¢	$2,799	0xd8962a…
07-30 11:35:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	292	93¢	$272	0x85d72c…
07-30 11:34:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	7,883	94¢	$7,407	0x6c35bd…
07-30 08:51:59	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	416	92¢	$383	0xa80429…
07-30 08:50:44	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,099	96¢	$1,055	0xee2b01…
07-30 08:50:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1,452	95¢	$1,380	0xe141ae…
07-30 08:48:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	13,158	100¢	$13,132	0xfa6981…
07-30 05:49:45	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	93¢	$4,674	0x0656c3…
07-30 05:49:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2,534	93¢	$2,356	0xf7bc5a…
07-30 05:47:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1,667	48¢	$800	0x7376b3…
07-30 05:47:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,830	94¢	$1,720	0xa727ec…
07-30 05:46:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	2,659	95¢	$2,526	0xf06e7e…
07-30 05:45:30	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	7,393	92¢	$6,802	0xa24fe9…
07-30 05:41:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	2,346	93¢	$2,182	0x54d6e6…
07-30 05:38:21	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	6,495	99¢	$6,415	0x7c2f06…
07-27 02:43:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x536501…
07-27 02:43:18	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	3,116	96¢	$2,981	0xdb44a1…
07-27 02:43:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2,564	95¢	$2,434	0x4e35f3…