Mushy-Stimulus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

535

lifetime

Volume

$4.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-20 17:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 100% +$31

Other

34% 0% $-1

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		+110	$11	8¢	$9	$-2	06-20 17:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more 234 558 393 861	14	$385	435	435	+0	open	—	02-14 05:02
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 131 166 287 285 292 389	17	$340	286	286	+0	open	—	02-13 18:43
another us government shutdown by february 14	26	$170	902	902	+0	open	—	02-14 05:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	18	$132	800	300	+500	open	—	05-25 16:58
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	7	$131	1,170	70	+1,100	open	—	05-29 18:57
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	16	$123	336	166	+170	open	—	04-26 17:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	16	$113	546	546	+0	open	—	03-01 01:33
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	22	$112	1,885	825	+1,060	open	—	03-09 04:05
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	19	$110	588	588	+0	open	—	03-03 18:59
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?	3	$109	60	60	+0	open	—	05-26 22:49
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	5	$107	61	61	+0	open	—	05-14 23:32
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	4	$99	56	56	+0	open	—	05-15 22:59
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	8	$97	80	30	+50	open	—	05-19 03:27
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	4	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	05-23 18:44
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026?	3	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	05-25 20:49
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	3	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	05-24 17:11
will there be 14 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	28	$85	557	274	+283	open	—	01-26 02:09
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	16	$83	480	350	+130	open	—	01-30 01:57
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	13	$83	327	296	+31	open	—	02-09 02:50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?	4	$75	40	40	+0	open	—	04-29 22:19
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	6	$74	190	40	+150	open	—	05-19 02:38
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	3	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	05-17 13:36
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	4	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	05-16 13:55
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	4	$63	32	35	-3	Yes	+$4	05-08 23:29
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026?	3	$63	34	34	+0	open	—	04-27 19:35
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026?	3	$59	31	31	+0	Yes	+$3	05-05 22:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	7	$59	710	110	+600	open	—	04-14 13:41
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?	2	$55	30	30	+0	Yes	+$4	05-10 00:41
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026?	3	$55	30	30	+0	Yes	+$5	05-10 18:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	8	$51	150	80	+70	open	—	03-09 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 17:16:40	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0xb89185…
06-17 20:49:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x73a642…
06-17 20:35:47	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x9eaee7…
06-15 11:48:19	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	SELL	23	57¢	$13	0xfb621e…
06-15 00:35:40	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	23	49¢	$11	0x60d793…
06-15 00:26:21	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	SELL	119	5¢	$6	0x1bdfab…
06-14 22:32:52	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	SELL	58	7¢	$4	0x2345be…
06-14 21:45:48	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	BUY	98	3¢	$3	0x9dbe34…
06-14 21:42:03	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	BUY	96	3¢	$3	0x4894fd…
06-11 22:09:28	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xaf2987…
06-07 15:08:58	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x533157…
06-07 05:35:27	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	No	BUY	600	0¢	$1	0x50c793…
06-07 03:47:18	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	No	SELL	109	1¢	$2	0xd14acd…
06-07 00:34:07	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xc2ec6a…
06-06 19:03:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	No	BUY	88	4¢	$3	0x5ac9a6…
06-06 08:13:18	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x8aaee6…
06-04 04:38:45	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 4 2026	No	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x2393b5…
06-04 02:11:04	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 4 2026	No	SELL	194	3¢	$7	0xd069b3…
06-04 00:02:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 4 2026	No	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x83d3c8…
06-03 23:40:12	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 4 2026	No	BUY	220	2¢	$5	0x7ae96d…
06-03 02:01:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x00feef…
06-01 22:32:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x3942ca…
06-01 18:57:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x9ffc48…
06-01 03:58:43	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xa3e193…
05-31 23:41:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xdcf20e…
05-31 23:40:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x1220fe…
05-29 18:57:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6e952a…
05-29 15:09:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd02121…
05-29 11:01:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0xe749ae…
05-28 23:04:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	82¢	$3	0x0eff94…
05-28 22:52:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x26e7d0…
05-28 22:52:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x5b7928…
05-27 18:51:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x240885…
05-27 16:47:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x752eae…
05-26 22:49:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0xd77433…
05-26 20:29:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x9c1fb9…
05-25 20:49:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xcaca4e…
05-25 16:58:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x1d488a…
05-25 16:50:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x33c816…
05-25 03:24:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x529cfd…
05-24 17:11:56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x36afed…
05-24 16:49:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	26	27¢	$7	0xb84aa4…
05-24 16:48:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	29	27¢	$8	0x5ab1b8…
05-24 15:58:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	31	26¢	$8	0x7dd280…
05-24 15:47:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x0a41a8…
05-24 15:46:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x789272…
05-24 15:46:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x099e60…
05-24 14:58:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x5a9e1d…
05-24 08:22:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x5a1e46…
05-23 23:17:05	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x4bfdcd…
05-23 22:07:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	63	14¢	$9	0xb99555…
05-23 22:06:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	63	14¢	$9	0xb55cfa…
05-23 22:05:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xa7e3d0…
05-23 22:01:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	19	13¢	$3	0xb11585…
05-23 22:01:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0x122ca7…
05-23 22:00:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	35	13¢	$5	0x305a0d…
05-23 21:03:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa646af…
05-23 20:31:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x845f82…
05-23 18:44:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc4ca0c…
05-22 19:41:42	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xd8cb79…
05-22 18:53:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x6089fb…
05-22 17:59:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x7bc0dc…
05-22 13:15:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	88¢	$29	0xc2d457…
05-22 12:19:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x26180a…
05-21 14:26:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xbd2ae9…
05-20 00:23:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0x7a9cbb…
05-19 14:21:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x2cb6ee…
05-19 14:00:22	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xde0433…
05-19 03:27:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xec63e5…
05-19 02:56:35	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xafc8ab…
05-19 02:38:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	140	0¢	$0	0x07183d…
05-19 02:09:20	Canadiens vs. Sabres	Canadiens	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xfea79a…
05-18 23:37:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x92fe90…
05-18 15:25:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd5d540…
05-18 05:47:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x249733…
05-18 04:30:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xd47b5b…
05-18 01:46:54	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x19414a…
05-17 13:36:11	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x2081ed…
05-17 08:13:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x210ae4…
05-16 13:55:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xd8f7dd…
05-15 23:00:10	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xdd23ab…
05-15 22:59:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x3da299…
05-15 18:14:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$4	0xe25fa5…
05-15 18:13:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3b2092…
05-15 18:13:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3a6c3e…
05-15 18:07:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x4ec70f…
05-15 18:02:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x562330…
05-15 17:59:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd24fc6…
05-15 11:23:56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x9f0a45…
05-15 00:30:15	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x9dc3f8…
05-14 23:32:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x1892a0…
05-13 22:22:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x69cbf8…
05-13 21:16:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	85¢	$14	0xce3305…
05-13 18:56:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x665c5b…
05-12 09:51:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	70¢	$13	0x262393…
05-12 09:51:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x8d63c5…
05-12 09:51:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xf3956a…
05-11 15:22:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x1e339c…
05-11 15:22:11	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x5396ab…
05-10 18:51:07	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xbd8f64…