Happy-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

2.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$51.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$651

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-29 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

82% 33% -$37

Sports

16% 0% —

Politics

2% 25% -$3

Tech

1% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+169	$14	2¢	$3	-$10	10-29 17:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$12.7K	6,783	6,783	+0	No	+$0	02-24 02:43
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	4	$9.0K	6,774	6,774	+0	No	+$0	02-24 02:33
GTA VI released before June 2026?	3	$8.9K	4,595	4,595	+0	No	-$5	02-24 03:21
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	2	$8.8K	4,980	4,980	+0	No	+$0	02-20 04:58
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$8.1K	4,139	4,139	+0	No	+$0	02-20 11:16
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	21	$1.5K	1,039	870	+169	open	—	10-29 17:44
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	5	$492	542	542	+0	No	+$7	04-26 06:50
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	4	$388	224	224	+0	No	-$2	04-21 11:09
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$381	212	212	+0	No	+$8	04-24 18:08
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	2	$170	86	86	+0	No	$0	03-22 12:25
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$170	86	86	+0	No	$0	03-22 08:01
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	3	$154	80	80	+0	No	+$1	03-22 01:46
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	3	$154	79	79	+0	No	+$0	03-24 06:32
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	2	$153	81	81	+0	No	-$2	03-25 01:48
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	5	$133	595	595	+0	No	+$1	04-27 00:37
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	3	$119	135	135	+0	Yes	-$3	04-24 23:31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	4	$108	426	426	+0	No	-$7	04-22 12:21
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 480 499	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	03-22 18:49
will jim parillo win the legend trade series	2	$31	36	0	+36	Yes	-$31	04-14 05:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:44:31	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x94cdd5…
05-13 18:45:19	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	8¢	$15	0x424609…
05-13 15:17:44	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	165	92¢	$152	0xde55d0…
05-13 15:17:44	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	92¢	$52	0xab1979…
05-13 15:17:44	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0x4ac9eb…
05-13 13:02:47	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	238	92¢	$220	0x2c6193…
05-13 05:08:12	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	139	93¢	$129	0xb884ee…
05-13 02:47:13	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x623de1…
05-13 02:47:13	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x14d08f…
05-13 01:46:49	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	7¢	$3	0x57f06c…
05-12 22:34:12	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	7¢	$3	0xc9bef9…
05-12 14:07:29	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	93¢	$57	0xd240cf…
05-12 14:07:29	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	148	93¢	$137	0xc48825…
05-12 14:07:29	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x286b5b…
05-12 12:48:53	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	93¢	$62	0x756c20…
05-12 12:48:53	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	148	93¢	$137	0x1eb0d5…
05-12 11:23:29	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	195	93¢	$181	0x41a766…
05-12 09:46:39	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x6b27cc…
05-12 05:35:03	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0xe8cf7e…
05-12 05:35:03	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	93¢	$45	0x1fb3ae…
05-12 05:35:03	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x03acac…
04-27 00:37:46	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	228	12¢	$27	0xdaf8c0…
04-26 22:32:52	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	12¢	$20	0xc3c95b…
04-26 22:32:52	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	12¢	$8	0x057cd9…
04-26 15:25:38	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	367	11¢	$40	0x2af2f7…
04-26 10:59:28	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	367	10¢	$38	0xcd2387…
04-26 06:50:20	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	242	45¢	$108	0xf454b1…
04-26 06:50:18	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	58	45¢	$26	0x522c23…
04-25 09:48:44	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	300	42¢	$127	0x628416…
04-24 23:31:30	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	111	43¢	$48	0xe8d8d6…
04-24 23:31:30	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	24	43¢	$10	0x2488e5…
04-24 19:37:54	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	135	45¢	$61	0x26cd41…
04-24 18:08:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	212	92¢	$195	0x519e2e…
04-24 14:57:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	197	88¢	$173	0x3c3351…
04-24 14:57:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0x37c007…
04-24 03:37:06	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	242	48¢	$115	0x5b9db4…
04-24 01:34:12	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	242	48¢	$116	0x8b2e71…
04-22 12:21:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0xfc6afa…
04-22 12:20:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	12¢	$14	0x0961e1…
04-22 12:20:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	284	12¢	$34	0x4d9224…
04-22 11:03:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	426	14¢	$58	0x0bb9aa…
04-21 11:09:50	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	56	86¢	$48	0xabefa5…
04-21 11:09:50	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	168	86¢	$145	0x8f1b65…
04-21 07:21:14	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	158	87¢	$138	0xe77eac…
04-21 07:21:14	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	66	87¢	$57	0xd04910…
04-14 05:59:09	will jim parillo win the legend trade series	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x9ee1cc…
04-14 05:59:09	will jim parillo win the legend trade series	No	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0x04e2e6…
03-25 01:48:33	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	No	SELL	81	94¢	$76	0xe97267…
03-24 22:06:59	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	No	BUY	81	96¢	$77	0x8c04fc…
03-24 06:32:59	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	SELL	79	98¢	$77	0x297f3b…
03-24 00:38:31	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x8bd830…
03-24 00:38:31	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x3ab742…
03-22 18:49:33	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 480 499	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x161a03…
03-22 17:10:39	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 480 499	No	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x580f51…
03-22 12:25:41	will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x1f5c24…
03-22 11:12:51	will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	No	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0xafbc31…
03-22 08:01:21	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x6d883f…
03-22 06:00:31	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x0821da…
03-22 01:46:21	will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	48	97¢	$47	0x4920c3…
03-22 01:46:21	will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x1109af…
03-21 22:12:45	will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	No	BUY	80	96¢	$77	0x7d23cb…
02-24 03:21:28	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	4,154	96¢	$4,009	0xcd0a68…
02-24 03:21:28	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	441	96¢	$425	0xbb4932…
02-24 03:09:38	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	4,595	97¢	$4,439	0x8764db…
02-24 02:43:56	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x974636…
02-24 02:43:56	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	3,322	95¢	$3,153	0x86c72a…
02-24 02:41:36	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	3,352	95¢	$3,181	0x06003e…
02-24 02:33:14	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	Yes	SELL	2,290	2¢	$57	0x734723…
02-24 02:18:52	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	Yes	BUY	2,290	2¢	$57	0xa0e414…
02-20 11:16:46	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	4,139	98¢	$4,036	0xf07e88…
02-20 11:12:08	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	4,139	98¢	$4,036	0x78b7b9…
02-20 10:35:56	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	3,320	96¢	$3,177	0xcb1483…
02-20 10:33:22	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	3,320	96¢	$3,177	0xf5480d…
02-20 10:07:32	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	111	4¢	$5	0x55339b…
02-20 10:05:42	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	111	4¢	$5	0xbfbe88…
02-20 05:24:24	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	No	SELL	4,484	99¢	$4,439	0x8ce42e…
02-20 05:22:00	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	No	BUY	4,484	99¢	$4,439	0x7d8621…
02-20 04:58:32	Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	No	SELL	4,980	88¢	$4,377	0xe42da0…
02-20 04:57:48	Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	No	BUY	4,980	88¢	$4,377	0xedc411…