Antique-Overweight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

52.4%

Resolved

Trades

449

lifetime

Volume

$2.82K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$38

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 10-30 08:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

85% 47% +$16

Crypto

9% 50% -$28

Tech

5% — —

Politics

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No		-48	-$37	80¢	$-38	-$1	09-23 21:09
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$2	23¢	$0	-$2	10-21 02:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	6	$188	100	100	+0	open	—	10-25 00:14
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	7	$89	63	54	+9	open	—	10-24 14:09
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?	2	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	10-19 04:29
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	3	$64	60	50	+10	open	—	10-19 12:59
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on October 27?	9	$63	62	58	+3	No	-$5	10-27 15:00
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	2	$62	50	50	+0	open	—	10-27 10:45
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 25?	8	$58	92	23	+69	No	-$4	10-24 20:29
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 25?	5	$55	40	40	+0	No	+$5	10-25 11:36
Will Jaafar Jackson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?	6	$52	60	40	+20	open	—	10-22 16:53
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 29?	7	$50	63	17	+46	No	+$4	10-29 20:19
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?	5	$48	40	40	+0	open	—	10-26 13:37
Will La Bola Negra win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	3	$45	50	30	+20	open	—	10-08 05:46
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C on October 27?	8	$40	50	30	+20	Yes	-$4	10-27 12:30
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026?	4	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	10-27 09:43
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 27?	2	$38	20	20	+0	Yes	+$2	10-28 00:13
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 25?	2	$38	20	20	+0	No	$0	10-25 13:58
Kash Patel out by December 31?	1	$37	0	48	-48	open	—	09-23 21:09
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	2	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	10-30 02:36
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	2	$34	19	19	+0	open	—	10-25 10:11
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	2	$31	64	0	+64	open	—	10-17 12:32
Kash Patel out by May 31?	1	$30	54	0	+54	No	+$24	04-28 06:49
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on October 26?	3	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$9	10-26 10:53
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 29?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$11	10-30 01:00
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 28?	2	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	+$11	10-28 08:07
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	3	$27	40	20	+20	open	—	10-30 07:32
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	1	$27	33	0	+33	open	—	10-30 01:50
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	6	$26	25	20	+5	open	—	10-30 07:10
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	3	$25	21	19	+3	open	—	10-16 21:57
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	10-07 06:02
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?	5	$25	20	20	+0	No	+$4	10-29 14:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:15:42	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x7022f0…
10-30 08:58:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x7e9a13…
10-30 08:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 31?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xab4f12…
10-30 08:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0xa989b5…
10-30 08:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x3c4b3b…
10-30 07:58:55	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x964597…
10-30 07:32:39	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x7adba9…
10-30 07:11:40	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x64faac…
10-30 07:10:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x104e5c…
10-30 07:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xee38e2…
10-30 06:19:19	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x3245ec…
10-30 06:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x55f6fd…
10-30 06:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xe00537…
10-30 05:55:09	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xf99f77…
10-30 05:31:00	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or higher on October 31?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x7d25fb…
10-30 05:18:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x28bb2d…
10-30 05:15:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x89bb0d…
10-30 05:12:28	Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x95ebdb…
10-30 05:12:28	Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x749898…
10-30 05:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	No	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0x95f23d…
10-30 04:44:21	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xa5f2ef…
10-30 03:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0xf8742b…
10-30 03:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x265941…
10-30 03:06:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x24cc2c…
10-30 03:05:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 30?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xf60f7c…
10-30 03:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	No	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x48ebf3…
10-30 02:58:52	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$2	0x8b734b…
10-30 02:38:24	Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x27399b…
10-30 02:36:33	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x0e20e4…
10-30 02:23:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xb2dcd1…
10-30 02:13:57	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xced6fe…
10-30 02:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	No	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x43f635…
10-30 01:50:21	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	80¢	$27	0x4fd7f5…
10-30 01:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe47d18…
10-30 01:27:27	Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$5	0xa7c261…
10-30 01:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0x5e8bb0…
10-30 01:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x8f8565…
10-30 01:04:46	Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x8b6481…
10-30 01:04:10	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 31?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xd16346…
10-30 01:04:10	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 31?	No	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x04d3f3…
10-30 01:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 29?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdfa5ce…
10-30 00:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	No	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xe8b66d…
10-30 00:38:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x209d39…
10-30 00:28:27	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 30?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x7d79c4…
10-30 00:05:19	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x9c8a12…
10-30 00:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 30?	No	SELL	12	51¢	$6	0x209b46…
10-29 23:56:31	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xa64063…
10-29 23:48:30	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 30?	No	BUY	16	54¢	$9	0x0a2138…
10-29 23:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x33a67a…
10-29 23:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x191857…
10-29 23:37:24	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdf9395…
10-29 23:32:37	Will McKenna Grace be the live-action Gwen Stacy?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x0c2c8d…
10-29 23:05:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 30?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$5	0xd9bae5…
10-29 23:05:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 30?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x61ed33…
10-29 23:05:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 30?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x3acddc…
10-29 23:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 31?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x455b07…
10-29 22:19:07	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 29?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x903a0d…
10-29 22:16:46	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 29?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xcd9bd0…
10-29 22:11:22	Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc323f9…
10-29 22:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 31?	Yes	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0xcbea25…
10-29 22:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1963cf…
10-29 22:05:00	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x1b4980…
10-29 21:17:16	Will McKenna Grace be the live-action Gwen Stacy?	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xe36d27…
10-29 21:17:13	Will McKenna Grace be the live-action Gwen Stacy?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x907b46…
10-29 21:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x5bd28e…
10-29 20:19:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 29?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x82efcf…
10-29 20:01:54	Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?	No	SELL	11	50¢	$6	0x866760…
10-29 17:50:52	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xad8248…
10-29 17:27:19	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 29?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xc9ddcb…
10-29 17:09:10	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1550 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x90381e…
10-29 17:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 30?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x3499aa…
10-29 17:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 30?	No	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0xed48c4…
10-29 15:48:38	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0x7e437c…
10-29 15:48:38	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 30?	Yes	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x524d65…
10-29 15:00:35	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$3	0xb91c45…
10-29 14:55:04	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 30?	Yes	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0xd554b0…
10-29 14:22:29	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x04402c…
10-29 14:22:16	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xf5a0fc…
10-29 14:03:31	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc4db8a…
10-29 14:03:31	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x5e5bd2…
10-29 13:08:05	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0x325554…
10-29 12:26:35	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0xd33af3…
10-29 11:44:20	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x61fcd0…
10-29 09:57:38	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xe12380…
10-29 09:02:07	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xbc5714…
10-29 08:10:07	Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x22265d…
10-29 05:49:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 29?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x56b74b…
10-29 05:42:40	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x7e962b…
10-29 05:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe7e3f1…
10-29 04:37:10	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xb44d9c…
10-29 04:37:10	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x72fefd…
10-29 02:53:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xee825e…
10-29 02:37:26	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on October 30?	No	SELL	1	58¢	$1	0xbddac0…
10-29 02:30:38	Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x305f8f…
10-29 02:27:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x4029bc…
10-29 02:27:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x56606d…
10-29 02:10:13	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?	No	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0xeb23a4…
10-29 02:10:11	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 29?	No	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0xc7682f…
10-29 02:05:41	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xefefd7…
10-29 01:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x5fd966…