Antique-Overweight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

51.3%

Resolved

130

Trades

584

lifetime

Volume

$3.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$39

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 11-01 05:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

88% 43% +$4

Crypto

7% 50% -$28

Tech

4% — —

Politics

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No		-48	-$37	82¢	$-39	-$2	09-23 21:09
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$2	18¢	$0	-$2	10-21 02:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	6	$188	100	100	+0	open	—	10-25 00:14
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	7	$89	63	54	+9	open	—	10-24 14:09
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?	2	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	10-19 04:29
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	4	$71	40	40	+0	open	—	10-31 20:20
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	3	$64	60	50	+10	open	—	10-19 12:59
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on October 27?	9	$63	62	58	+3	No	-$5	10-27 15:00
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	2	$62	50	50	+0	open	—	10-27 10:45
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 25?	8	$58	92	23	+69	No	-$4	10-24 20:29
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 25?	5	$55	40	40	+0	No	+$5	10-25 11:36
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	2	$53	33	33	+0	open	—	11-01 00:23
Will Jaafar Jackson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?	6	$52	60	40	+20	open	—	10-22 16:53
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 29?	7	$50	63	17	+46	No	+$4	10-29 20:19
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?	5	$48	40	40	+0	open	—	10-26 13:37
Will La Bola Negra win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	3	$45	50	30	+20	open	—	10-08 05:46
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C on October 27?	8	$40	50	30	+20	Yes	-$4	10-27 12:30
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026?	4	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	10-27 09:43
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on October 27?	2	$38	20	20	+0	Yes	+$2	10-28 00:13
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 25?	2	$38	20	20	+0	No	$0	10-25 13:58
Kash Patel out by December 31?	1	$37	0	48	-48	open	—	09-23 21:09
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 30?	2	$35	20	20	+0	No	+$5	10-30 20:00
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	2	$34	19	19	+0	open	—	10-25 10:11
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	1	$33	39	0	+39	open	—	10-31 23:31
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	2	$31	64	0	+64	open	—	10-17 12:32
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 1?	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-31 22:16
Kash Patel out by May 31?	1	$30	54	0	+54	No	+$24	04-28 06:49
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on October 26?	3	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$9	10-26 10:53
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 31?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-31 05:00
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 29?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	+$11	10-30 01:00
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 28?	2	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	+$11	10-28 08:07
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	3	$27	40	20	+20	open	—	10-30 07:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 05:26:24	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xbb1a7e…
11-01 05:24:28	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 2?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x01b5cd…
11-01 05:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 1?	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0xe2aa4a…
11-01 05:18:46	Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xd29c8e…
11-01 05:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x1ee363…
11-01 05:10:49	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 1?	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x465142…
11-01 05:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf29563…
11-01 04:12:13	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	7	35¢	$2	0x11280b…
11-01 04:11:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 1?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x0a285a…
11-01 04:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 1?	No	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x1f5d4a…
11-01 03:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x692d76…
11-01 03:07:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 1?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xf9a1c7…
11-01 02:34:51	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd9f3cd…
11-01 02:26:06	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on November 2?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xb55d1f…
11-01 02:10:45	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x7459c5…
11-01 02:04:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xcf017e…
11-01 02:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xbe8ca6…
11-01 02:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?	No	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0xcb58bf…
11-01 01:30:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x530ec4…
11-01 01:21:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$7	0x30da97…
11-01 01:16:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on November 1?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xafac05…
11-01 01:16:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on November 1?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x102d96…
11-01 01:12:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xe3f0e3…
11-01 01:10:49	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on November 2?	No	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0x0b3611…
11-01 01:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on November 2?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x803da9…
11-01 01:01:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xe53710…
11-01 00:44:22	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x731210…
11-01 00:23:52	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	79¢	$27	0x90ef3d…
11-01 00:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	13	43¢	$6	0xde2e42…
11-01 00:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xbbc137…
10-31 23:48:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x74cb74…
10-31 23:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb6dc9b…
10-31 23:47:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?	No	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xb69472…
10-31 23:43:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x7210fb…
10-31 23:31:36	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x00361f…
10-31 23:31:10	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	39	84¢	$33	0x82d179…
10-31 23:27:24	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x5ab71b…
10-31 23:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0xe56523…
10-31 23:24:01	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x957648…
10-31 23:07:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x9daea8…
10-31 23:07:06	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xcfb09f…
10-31 23:06:16	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x5a5ec7…
10-31 23:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0x88c8a6…
10-31 23:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xfd3607…
10-31 23:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xf9b5cd…
10-31 22:35:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xc3fbc4…
10-31 22:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 1?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x2c924c…
10-31 22:09:15	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0xc65976…
10-31 22:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xcf5a1e…
10-31 21:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 2?	Yes	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0x43d5f0…
10-31 21:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 2?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x3971ab…
10-31 21:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xa8c374…
10-31 20:20:30	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x02a2e0…
10-31 20:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xbef897…
10-31 20:09:21	Will Ca$ino (Baby Keem) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc0b3c4…
10-31 20:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x6baddd…
10-31 19:41:37	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 1?	No	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x297c72…
10-31 19:38:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	15	43¢	$6	0xbde19d…
10-31 18:49:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 31?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x5786fb…
10-31 18:11:31	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x5aa89e…
10-31 18:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe2a486…
10-31 18:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x4cda5b…
10-31 18:04:36	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x9ce154…
10-31 17:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 2?	No	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0x8639c1…
10-31 15:45:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	Yes	SELL	17	45¢	$8	0xc8de9f…
10-31 15:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xa9483f…
10-31 15:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x4d756d…
10-31 15:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?	No	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x4bc67d…
10-31 15:07:39	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	46¢	$1	0x3b787b…
10-31 15:07:37	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xd2dbdf…
10-31 15:06:37	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x726c83…
10-31 14:43:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 2?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xb54956…
10-31 13:32:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 1?	No	SELL	15	57¢	$9	0x4b1d15…
10-31 12:48:25	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1b9710…
10-31 12:36:37	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xba5845…
10-31 10:01:12	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x593e16…
10-31 09:56:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on November 2?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xef250b…
10-31 09:55:22	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0x49cee6…
10-31 09:55:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0xd27204…
10-31 09:55:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x7cba23…
10-31 09:37:40	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x2a3430…
10-31 09:15:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 2?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x5cbc96…
10-31 09:11:31	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x4c5baf…
10-31 08:43:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xe85751…
10-31 07:58:09	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x8950a5…
10-31 07:46:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x2ed0af…
10-31 07:24:52	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x13600c…
10-31 07:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x6093fd…
10-31 06:57:24	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xaa7e9a…
10-31 06:57:24	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0f0457…
10-31 06:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 31?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x68426b…
10-31 05:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 31?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xae1139…
10-31 04:36:46	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x0f0236…
10-31 04:36:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 1?	No	SELL	11	59¢	$6	0xf2713e…
10-31 04:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 31?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xe93b34…
10-31 04:11:22	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 1?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x813d70…
10-31 04:10:54	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xe37361…
10-31 04:06:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xebea07…
10-31 02:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x7d1309…
10-31 02:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x69c2ef…