Political-Napkin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

51.3%

Resolved

267

Trades

1,003

lifetime

Volume

$5.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-11 04:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 34% -$53

Other

2% 67% +$7

Politics

0% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		-18	-$13	3¢	$-1	+$12	05-14 22:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	5	$281	249	249	+0	Up	+$211	05-17 17:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	11	$176	297	174	+124	Down	+$110	05-18 15:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	8	$164	254	141	+113	Down	+$33	05-22 02:49
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	9	$151	154	139	+15	Up	+$32	05-18 16:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	4	$133	264	164	+100	Up	+$73	05-21 23:04
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	11	$126	476	237	+239	Down	$0	10-11 03:19
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	8	$91	154	54	+100	Down	+$1	10-11 03:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	7	$91	310	106	+204	Down	-$19	05-18 15:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	10	$90	167	51	+116	Up	+$30	05-18 15:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	8	$88	268	52	+216	Up	-$26	05-18 15:33
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	10	$88	132	92	+40	Down	+$18	04-29 21:09
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	7	$84	56	56	+0	Up	+$24	10-11 04:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$77	59	59	+0	No	+$2	04-27 01:13
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	10	$75	97	49	+47	Up	+$18	10-09 02:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	7	$73	115	43	+73	Down	+$75	05-18 15:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	6	$70	210	41	+169	Up	+$5	05-21 23:28
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	6	$68	123	67	+56	Up	-$4	10-11 03:32
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	4	$67	144	0	+144	Down	-$67	05-22 02:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	7	$55	108	33	+76	Up	+$7	05-21 23:09
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	3	$53	127	0	+127	Down	-$53	10-11 03:47
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	6	$53	177	34	+143	Up	+$6	05-19 00:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	4	$52	237	0	+237	Up	-$52	05-18 15:42
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	7	$52	70	58	+12	Up	+$11	05-22 02:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	7	$52	333	31	+302	Up	-$16	05-18 15:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	3	$51	151	0	+151	Up	-$51	05-18 16:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	6	$51	198	16	+182	Down	-$33	05-17 18:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$50	336	30	+305	Down	-$20	05-18 16:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	6	$46	405	0	+405	Down	-$25	05-17 18:16
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	7	$44	105	81	+24	Up	+$13	10-08 21:55
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 01:40 UTC	4	$44	33	31	+1	Up	+$19	04-21 01:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 04:31:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf5db11…
10-11 04:31:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5486c7…
10-11 04:30:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x2ba2c1…
10-11 04:30:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x120523…
10-11 04:25:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x6dd0d4…
10-11 04:25:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xa0b4bf…
10-11 04:25:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xfe58e7…
10-11 04:25:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x1a7a2b…
10-11 04:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0x283032…
10-11 04:24:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xc4fe5c…
10-11 04:23:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x9895a7…
10-11 04:21:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	18	67¢	$12	0x582442…
10-11 04:21:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x9c6ba3…
10-11 04:20:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x308bb5…
10-11 04:17:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x259174…
10-11 04:15:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xde9989…
10-11 04:15:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x084bf7…
10-11 04:14:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	56	95¢	$54	0xba81c8…
10-11 04:13:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe0638c…
10-11 04:12:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x431e7a…
10-11 04:11:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8d6dad…
10-11 04:11:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xf1a3bc…
10-11 04:11:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x05680a…
10-11 04:10:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x660d8e…
10-11 04:06:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x0b7e10…
10-11 04:05:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb20490…
10-11 04:04:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbf7189…
10-11 03:47:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x5c1fbd…
10-11 03:46:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xd8d9df…
10-11 03:45:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0xe8f129…
10-11 03:44:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	704	1¢	$9	0x408ea1…
10-11 03:40:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0xae72fa…
10-11 03:32:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	56	16¢	$9	0x321ceb…
10-11 03:31:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	25	39¢	$10	0xb8c495…
10-11 03:31:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0x35c800…
10-11 03:31:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	42	53¢	$22	0x1cd8c6…
10-11 03:31:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x1e1f3f…
10-11 03:30:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x7edf9e…
10-11 03:28:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xec05b4…
10-11 03:26:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xb4b281…
10-11 03:23:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x88bc15…
10-11 03:22:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x884187…
10-11 03:22:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0xea63fa…
10-11 03:21:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0x47f206…
10-11 03:21:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x47a1d8…
10-11 03:20:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	28	82¢	$23	0x978f4a…
10-11 03:20:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x8d4274…
10-11 03:20:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x67aa88…
10-11 03:19:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	216	4¢	$9	0xd86388…
10-11 03:19:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0xdc1e83…
10-11 03:18:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	78	14¢	$11	0xa3909f…
10-11 03:18:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	78	12¢	$9	0xa5a29b…
10-11 03:18:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0xbee806…
10-11 03:17:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x080573…
10-11 03:17:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	117	16¢	$19	0xe991b1…
10-11 03:16:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	117	8¢	$9	0xc969d3…
10-11 03:16:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0xed6791…
10-11 03:15:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xfe5958…
10-11 03:15:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x44c695…
10-11 03:09:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0d4828…
10-11 03:09:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	28	71¢	$20	0x9e092c…
10-11 03:09:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2abf44…
10-11 03:07:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x82163a…
10-11 03:05:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xde4198…
10-11 03:05:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdda88e…
10-11 03:03:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7d676a…
10-11 02:55:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0xb82cfc…
10-11 02:53:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0x36ae9d…
10-11 02:53:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xd2772f…
10-11 02:53:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x1b8bb3…
10-11 02:53:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xddcda3…
10-09 02:21:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x691cee…
10-09 02:21:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	28	32¢	$9	0x433107…
10-09 02:15:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x329d8e…
10-09 02:15:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8086ef…
10-09 02:13:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x43dd24…
10-09 02:13:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa0b0a0…
10-09 02:12:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0x450852…
10-09 02:12:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc6aede…
10-09 02:11:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0c460e…
10-09 02:09:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x09dab9…
10-09 02:09:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x309b60…
10-09 02:08:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	29	90¢	$26	0xc07851…
10-09 02:03:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0x7ac57d…
10-09 02:01:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x3beb1d…
10-09 01:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xefad9d…
10-09 01:57:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf13bd7…
10-09 01:53:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x074436…
10-09 01:50:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0xf9050c…
10-09 01:45:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0x499b7d…
10-09 01:43:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	65	2¢	$1	0xf2d0d0…
10-09 01:42:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9a751e…
10-09 01:42:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9b2abf…
10-09 01:41:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0x31ac30…
10-09 01:39:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xd43095…
10-09 01:09:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x758580…
10-09 01:07:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4564dd…
10-09 01:05:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x5ba88c…
10-09 01:05:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xe5369a…
10-09 01:04:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x039876…