Absolute-Bellows — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$114

Unrealized P&L

-$42

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

989

lifetime

Volume

$64.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$188

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-08 10:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Politics

43% 0% $-114

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+300	$230	62¢	$188	$-42	07-08 10:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	86	$5.6K	5,418	5,418	+0	open	—	03-08 10:11
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	32	$4.0K	4,389	4,389	+0	open	—	03-08 09:47
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	15	$3.7K	3,727	3,727	+0	open	—	03-22 14:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	22	$2.8K	2,800	3,000	-200	open	—	03-23 15:20
cbb stlou mich 2026 03 21 spread home 12pt5	24	$2.8K	2,795	2,795	-0	open	—	03-21 12:39
cbb stjohn kan 2026 03 22 spread away 3pt5	67	$2.4K	2,452	2,452	+0	open	—	03-22 12:17
cbb missr mia 2026 03 20 spread home 1pt5	6	$2.2K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-21 03:31
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	4	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-22 08:00
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	17	$1.8K	2,010	2,010	+0	open	—	03-09 03:18
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	26	$1.6K	2,236	2,236	+0	open	—	03-20 12:43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$1.5K	1,000	800	+200	open	—	03-07 12:16
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	23	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	03-24 04:46
cbb utahst arz 2026 03 22 spread home 11pt5	5	$1.5K	1,508	1,508	+0	open	—	03-21 11:48
cbb stlou mich 2026 03 21 total 161pt5	4	$1.2K	1,239	1,239	+0	open	—	03-21 11:12
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	19	$1.2K	1,300	1,100	+200	open	—	03-27 07:25
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	13	$1.2K	700	700	+0	open	—	04-26 02:04
cbb tcu duke 2026 03 21 spread home 11pt5	3	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-21 11:53
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22 total 164pt5	3	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 14:20
cbb stjohn kan 2026 03 22 total 144pt5	5	$990	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	03-22 04:46
cbb tenn vir 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	2	$970	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 04:51
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	21	$967	710	1,555	-845	open	—	01-31 13:49
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22	3	$940	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 03:51
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	5	$920	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 04:11
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	6	$907	736	399	+337	open	—	03-26 09:27
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$884	800	500	+300	open	—	03-04 13:48
cbb mia pur 2026 03 22 spread home 7pt5	2	$856	873	873	+0	open	—	03-22 04:53
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5	2	$840	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-29 00:24
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	11	$818	1,290	1,425	-135	open	—	03-09 06:20
cbb stjohn kan 2026 03 22	2	$780	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 13:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	10	$778	700	900	-200	Yes	$-114	03-04 17:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 10:36:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x509cde…
07-06 15:00:46	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 btts	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x1b701a…
07-06 01:01:19	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 btts	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x823987…
06-24 09:52:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x05001f…
06-17 05:03:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	400	82¢	$328	0x3db299…
06-17 00:56:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	400	17¢	$68	0x1a977a…
06-15 03:44:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	93¢	$372	0x07ca3e…
06-01 15:25:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0xb8a3fb…
06-01 13:48:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	32¢	$9	0x9565c4…
06-01 13:37:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x85af38…
06-01 13:32:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	72¢	$73	0x794cd4…
06-01 13:27:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x03e9b2…
06-01 04:00:00	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x281981…
06-01 03:59:49	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x342565…
06-01 03:55:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0x1f551e…
06-01 03:49:26	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x698743…
06-01 03:49:21	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xea347f…
06-01 03:24:33	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xf3b689…
06-01 03:06:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x460ef8…
06-01 03:05:43	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xdce2b5…
06-01 03:05:32	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x7c1104…
06-01 03:02:20	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xde1b79…
06-01 03:02:18	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x4d319d…
06-01 03:00:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x345f37…
06-01 02:57:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x0bd4de…
06-01 02:57:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0xee0bbd…
06-01 02:56:12	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x352dd7…
06-01 02:54:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xcb34e8…
06-01 02:52:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x77a95d…
06-01 02:52:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x997917…
06-01 02:49:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0xa75b44…
05-20 06:56:11	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0x080089…
05-20 06:36:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0xd2496d…
05-12 02:28:32	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	300	72¢	$218	0x4b5655…
05-12 02:26:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x55b79d…
05-12 02:06:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	33¢	$17	0x0fc1d3…
04-29 00:24:22	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5	Over	SELL	1,000	40¢	$400	0xa71712…
04-29 00:20:48	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5	Over	BUY	1,000	44¢	$440	0x3c6d90…
04-26 07:33:34	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	49	54¢	$26	0x4f7846…
04-26 06:48:16	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	151	54¢	$82	0x8022c4…
04-26 02:04:04	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	SELL	400	74¢	$296	0xc5daac…
04-25 22:03:36	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x7a05c7…
04-11 02:20:47	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	19	88¢	$16	0x866b29…
04-11 02:20:45	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x8e5dfd…
04-11 02:20:31	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	28	88¢	$24	0x4a6aaa…
04-11 02:19:43	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	58	88¢	$51	0x796c59…
04-11 02:19:41	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	51	88¢	$45	0x37ea5d…
04-11 02:19:31	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0xd7da01…
04-11 02:19:17	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	55	88¢	$49	0x668bad…
04-11 02:18:37	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	24	88¢	$21	0xcc5c49…
04-11 02:18:25	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	51	88¢	$45	0xcff7fa…
04-11 02:17:57	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	38	88¢	$33	0xa8c056…
04-03 23:10:43	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x1d90af…
03-31 06:56:29	will italy qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x865917…
03-31 03:02:07	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xcb72bb…
03-27 07:25:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xaac52f…
03-27 05:30:47	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	77¢	$308	0x590ccc…
03-26 09:27:55	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x8ae22d…
03-25 13:10:41	highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	No	SELL	46	30¢	$14	0x6866a6…
03-25 13:10:35	highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	No	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x428ecd…
03-25 13:09:55	highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xd2e0ec…
03-25 13:09:51	highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	No	BUY	37	30¢	$11	0x1a13a6…
03-25 08:42:51	highest temperature in ankara on march 25 2026 11c	No	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x13804f…
03-25 08:40:21	highest temperature in ankara on march 25 2026 11c	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x58b6e6…
03-25 07:32:55	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0x5edac8…
03-25 07:31:55	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xdac21a…
03-25 07:25:41	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xe43f72…
03-25 07:22:05	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x51a55b…
03-25 07:21:21	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x08f847…
03-25 07:18:09	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0x31eb6c…
03-25 07:08:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x9af005…
03-25 07:07:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x79c639…
03-25 03:26:03	highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	No	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0xc41ec0…
03-25 03:25:25	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	60	21¢	$13	0x2aa6f0…
03-25 03:24:09	highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x4b0e51…
03-25 03:21:47	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x59514b…
03-25 03:21:01	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	17	35¢	$6	0x4f1c71…
03-25 03:20:27	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x17dbf3…
03-25 03:19:51	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x6bc21b…
03-25 03:18:55	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	SELL	43	32¢	$14	0x09f71e…
03-25 03:18:39	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x8690bd…
03-25 03:15:59	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xe8712c…
03-25 03:11:45	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x18da7a…
03-25 02:55:55	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	41	39¢	$16	0x89e060…
03-25 02:55:03	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	BUY	41	38¢	$16	0x9a984a…
03-25 02:49:27	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x18d1b3…
03-25 02:46:39	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x8548df…
03-25 02:44:25	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xcd5eea…
03-25 02:41:39	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0xc35931…
03-25 02:38:37	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0x5ccdb7…
03-25 02:37:59	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	11	46¢	$5	0x07a778…
03-25 02:37:57	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x99bf9d…
03-25 02:37:57	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x1662a6…
03-25 02:37:05	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x03b86b…
03-25 02:36:25	will less than 5000 us flights be delayed on march 24	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x20f6e3…
03-25 02:36:19	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xb6faa4…
03-25 02:26:25	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x521f26…
03-24 13:57:11	highest temperature in ankara on march 24 2026 12c	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe6bad5…
03-24 13:57:11	highest temperature in ankara on march 24 2026 12c	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xd0c0fc…
03-24 13:57:11	highest temperature in ankara on march 24 2026 12c	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x7a520d…