Deficient-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$319

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 05-14 19:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

85% 86% +$0

Crypto

11% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
amzn close above 205 on february 13 2026	1	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	02-13 08:40
nvda up or down on february 12 2026	3	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	02-12 15:56
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-14 12:23
will the cash initiative or counter proposal be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	02-19 15:54
will the climate fund initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	02-27 08:17
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 29?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-29 08:27
wmt quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 19 2026 0pt72	2	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	02-18 10:31
btc updown 5m 1770996300	5	$8	11	10	+1	open	—	02-13 15:27
btc updown 5m 1770908400	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	02-12 15:04
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-09 17:40
btc updown 5m 1770995700	3	$6	10	10	+0	open	—	02-13 15:19
spx opens up or down on april 22 2026	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	04-22 05:15
spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	03-18 12:43
spx opens up or down on april 21 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-21 05:51
gc up or down on february 23 2026	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	02-22 14:49
spx up or down on april 22 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-22 05:16
will elon musks net worth be between 670b and 680b on march 31	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	03-20 08:56
spx opens up or down on february 20 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	02-20 09:48
will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	03-14 12:30
spx up or down on february 25 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	02-25 14:38
amzn above 210 on february 13 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	02-12 11:46
gc up or down on february 25 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	02-25 14:35
dax up or down on february 25 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	02-25 14:36
xagusd up or down on april 23 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-23 10:33
spx up or down on february 12 2026	2	$4	4	4	+0	open	—	02-12 15:57
spx opens up or down on april 13 2026	2	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	04-12 13:47
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$3	4	4	+0	open	—	03-09 17:39
wti up or down on april 13 2026	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	04-12 17:43
ndx up or down on april 22 2026	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	04-22 05:17
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 14?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	05-14 19:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 19:08:19	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 14?	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x95cc02…
05-14 19:05:31	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x2a985a…
05-14 19:04:00	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x384eff…
05-13 09:27:07	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x823a2d…
05-12 12:22:38	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x3bda7d…
05-12 12:22:17	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x491a74…
05-11 09:44:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x7434d4…
05-11 09:43:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x7e07ab…
05-07 18:58:14	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x062884…
05-07 18:58:10	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x7c5938…
05-05 10:05:40	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xda7450…
05-05 10:05:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x5a4a4a…
05-01 06:02:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x7c07b4…
05-01 06:02:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x6c4078…
04-29 08:29:36	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xdda63d…
04-29 08:27:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x729aec…
04-29 08:27:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x557edb…
04-29 08:27:06	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc69fd1…
04-23 10:33:06	xagusd up or down on april 23 2026	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x775287…
04-23 10:32:04	wti closes above 91 on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xb99689…
04-22 05:17:04	ndx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x3d3aae…
04-22 05:16:06	spx up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xb3df27…
04-22 05:15:52	spx opens up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x180a16…
04-21 05:53:48	xagusd up or down on april 21 2026	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x4a4046…
04-21 05:52:06	googl close above 330 on april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xd8c166…
04-21 05:51:02	spx opens up or down on april 21 2026	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xdb071d…
04-12 17:43:19	wti up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xb2dfa0…
04-12 13:47:17	spx opens up or down on april 13 2026	Up	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x851f8d…
04-11 15:47:43	bitcoin above 68k on april 15	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x329174…
04-11 15:44:47	dogecoin up or down on april 11 2026	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xbee8c4…
04-11 15:38:31	spx opens up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfce96b…
03-20 08:56:03	will elon musks net worth be between 670b and 680b on march 31	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x91917d…
03-18 12:43:17	spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	Up	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x891f90…
03-18 08:08:45	spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xa0cc85…
03-14 12:30:45	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb4dbeb…
03-14 12:23:47	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x7858f3…
03-13 10:36:19	gc up or down on march 13 2026	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x415680…
03-12 17:45:29	aapl above 265 on march 13 2026	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xbde48d…
03-12 17:43:47	msft above 410 on march 13 2026	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xd39f32…
03-09 17:40:05	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xb49d24…
03-09 17:39:49	will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x2d2d8d…
02-27 08:17:55	will the climate fund initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x41b82e…
02-25 14:40:30	snow quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 0pt27	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xec4f12…
02-25 14:38:16	spx up or down on february 25 2026	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xe99da5…
02-25 14:36:32	dax up or down on february 25 2026	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xccf26f…
02-25 14:35:46	gc up or down on february 25 2026	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe5d7ec…
02-22 14:50:10	si up or down on february 23 2026	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x62e36c…
02-22 14:49:50	gc up or down on february 23 2026	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x123a8b…
02-20 09:58:16	gc up or down on february 20 2026	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x74acec…
02-20 09:48:18	spx opens up or down on february 20 2026	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xd375c9…
02-19 15:54:44	will the cash initiative or counter proposal be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2b0441…
02-18 10:37:00	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xa05c49…
02-18 10:34:10	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 23 2026 0pt05	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xfb5508…
02-18 10:31:32	wmt quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 19 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4d50e6…
02-18 10:31:14	dash quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 18 2026 0pt58	No	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x876229…
02-18 10:30:34	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xb1a2cf…
02-18 10:24:50	spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x9e8d16…
02-14 09:49:39	will the climate fund initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x42d4ac…
02-13 15:27:17	btc updown 5m 1770996300	Down	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x650901…
02-13 15:26:51	btc updown 5m 1770996300	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x13a703…
02-13 15:26:07	btc updown 5m 1770996300	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x938116…
02-13 15:25:33	btc updown 5m 1770996300	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x2b1297…
02-13 15:25:09	btc updown 5m 1770996300	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xac9a61…
02-13 15:19:23	btc updown 5m 1770995700	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x811d5b…
02-13 15:15:29	btc updown 5m 1770995700	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa4366d…
02-13 15:15:17	btc updown 5m 1770995700	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf572a7…
02-13 08:57:57	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x854884…
02-13 08:55:19	will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x225e97…
02-13 08:52:35	will the cash initiative or counter proposal be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x2b7ac0…
02-13 08:48:07	meta close above 670 on february 13 2026	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x2cd691…
02-13 08:46:13	will googl close between 325 and 330 week february 13 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x751e4e…
02-13 08:46:05	will googl close between 320 and 325 week february 13 2026	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xe1088c…
02-13 08:43:19	msft above 390 on february 13 2026	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x73cc7c…
02-13 08:41:05	gc up or down on february 13 2026	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x5d31c1…
02-13 08:40:53	si up or down on february 13 2026	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x5c78fb…
02-13 08:40:13	amzn close above 205 on february 13 2026	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x725474…
02-12 15:57:01	spx up or down on february 12 2026	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x23072c…
02-12 15:56:43	nvda up or down on february 12 2026	Up	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x2ff681…
02-12 15:37:01	btc updown 5m 1770910500	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x6db64a…
02-12 15:04:17	btc updown 5m 1770908400	Down	SELL	7	66¢	$4	0x3f3d01…
02-12 15:00:51	btc updown 5m 1770908400	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xc0b412…
02-12 11:58:41	nvda up or down on february 12 2026	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xd34420…
02-12 11:55:27	wmt quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 19 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x90c3ac…
02-12 11:46:45	amzn above 210 on february 13 2026	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x96ac56…
02-12 11:30:39	btc updown 15m 1770895800	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x052db6…
02-12 11:25:13	spx up or down on february 12 2026	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x043a72…
02-12 11:20:21	nvda up or down on february 12 2026	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xb666e1…
02-12 11:11:57	pins quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 12 2026 0pt68	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xab236a…
02-12 11:11:13	coin quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 12 2026 0pt61	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x6d4e13…
02-11 14:18:49	gc up or down on february 11 2026	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x909d13…
02-11 12:58:43	nvda above 170 on february 13 2026	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x120bcf…
02-11 12:19:49	bitcoin above 66k on february 11	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x0a373e…
02-11 12:19:39	bitcoin above 64k on february 11	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x620c14…