Humble-Pecan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$182

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

284

Trades

714

lifetime

Volume

$463.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$650

Open exposure

$2.68K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-30 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

45% 64% -$15,725

Other

24% 60% +$56

Sports

16% 33% -$5,371

Crypto

14% 67% +$5,954

Tech

1% 100% +$376

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes		+2,709	$2,500	99¢	$2.7K	+$182	10-30 09:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$40.5K	20,533	20,533	+0	Yes	+$512	07-19 22:03
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	4	$35.4K	17,721	17,721	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 06:16
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	13	$28.8K	15,954	15,954	+0	No	+$1,001	08-08 04:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$24.9K	30,649	30,644	+5	Yes	-$4,209	04-03 17:02
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$22.9K	58,109	58,109	+0	No	-$4,873	07-19 21:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$20.3K	10,303	10,303	+0	No	+$293	10-28 18:00
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	19	$20.2K	10,249	10,249	+0	No	+$238	08-10 04:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	3	$15.4K	8,489	8,489	+0	No	-$605	06-14 04:24
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 22	3	$12.4K	6,370	6,370	+0	Yes	+$363	08-22 21:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	3	$12.3K	6,359	6,359	+0	Yes	+$320	10-25 18:56
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	12	$10.5K	5,556	5,556	+0	No	+$550	08-09 05:45
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	3	$10.3K	5,415	5,415	+0	Yes	+$305	07-28 06:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	3	$10.2K	5,657	5,657	+0	Yes	+$195	07-26 05:12
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$9.0K	22,022	22,022	+0	No	-$1,011	07-15 20:49
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$8.6K	6,127	6,127	+0	No	+$547	03-26 03:33
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	2	$8.2K	9,259	9,259	+0	No	-$1,849	07-19 19:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$7.7K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	10-28 19:02
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$7.6K	12,340	12,340	+0	Yes	-$7,450	02-28 07:32
bitcoin up or down on august 12 2026	2	$6.5K	5,639	5,639	+0	Down	+$509	08-12 06:08
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$6.4K	3,994	3,994	+0	No	+$427	01-29 15:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	1	$6.0K	6,375	0	+6,375	Yes	+$375	10-17 05:13
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	8	$5.9K	6,853	6,853	+0	open	—	10-28 19:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$5.9K	5,902	5,902	+0	No	-$612	09-11 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	9	$5.4K	3,542	3,542	+0	Up	+$1,449	10-09 15:47
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	2	$5.4K	3,100	3,100	+0	No	+$169	03-04 06:47
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$5.3K	3,012	3,012	+0	No	+$295	01-23 21:01
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 31	3	$5.0K	5,681	0	+5,681	No	-$4,999	08-22 14:06
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	3	$4.6K	3,055	3,055	+0	Up	+$1,552	10-25 16:15
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$4.4K	2,873	2,873	+0	No	+$1,370	04-01 08:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$4.3K	3,302	3,302	+0	No	+$2,283	06-01 17:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:27:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,708	92¢	$2,499	0x1c4f9e…
10-30 09:27:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x540850…
10-29 13:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	204	54¢	$111	0xa84605…
10-29 13:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x9ea220…
10-28 19:02:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,843	26¢	$725	0xa7c076…
10-28 19:02:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8,000	46¢	$3,701	0xa40ef5…
10-28 18:01:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29?	Up	SELL	312	58¢	$181	0x4e9394…
10-28 18:00:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10,303	100¢	$10,293	0x0ef197…
10-28 17:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	312	58¢	$181	0xbbc319…
10-28 17:46:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10,303	97¢	$10,000	0x68c159…
10-28 08:39:46	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	8,000	50¢	$4,000	0xdf581d…
10-28 06:45:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,843	35¢	$1,000	0xc63756…
10-28 02:19:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	925	20¢	$189	0x3e27c0…
10-27 20:16:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	925	54¢	$500	0x557a27…
10-27 20:01:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,051	36¢	$380	0xb6df8a…
10-27 19:17:27	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,000	52¢	$524	0x279ae5…
10-27 19:16:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,033	55¢	$572	0xbbea44…
10-27 13:02:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,084	65¢	$2,000	0xa17ff6…
10-25 18:56:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	3,359	100¢	$3,349	0x9bcd68…
10-25 16:15:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	SELL	3,055	100¢	$3,052	0x840b63…
10-25 06:18:33	XRP Up or Down on October 25?	Up	SELL	564	94¢	$530	0x2fa3d8…
10-25 03:51:24	XRP Up or Down on October 25?	Up	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x2390a7…
10-24 16:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	2,000	50¢	$1,000	0x9143d4…
10-24 16:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	1,055	47¢	$500	0x903eab…
10-24 16:04:11	XRP Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	1,064	47¢	$500	0x2c2613…
10-24 16:03:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	3,000	99¢	$2,971	0xc84e9a…
10-22 04:55:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	6,359	94¢	$6,000	0xac5ad0…
10-17 05:13:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	6,375	94¢	$6,000	0x93820a…
10-15 12:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	187	53¢	$100	0xe533e5…
10-15 12:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0xfbc130…
10-15 12:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	109	52¢	$57	0x244cee…
10-15 12:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0x18eeb3…
10-15 12:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xe7fc8d…
10-15 12:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x9f8d9b…
10-14 12:30:35	bitcoin up or down on october 14 2026	Up	SELL	1,351	30¢	$411	0x114316…
10-14 12:16:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc8678e…
10-14 12:16:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x948f28…
10-14 12:15:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x6ca0b8…
10-14 12:15:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x3fedbc…
10-14 12:15:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xe980ba…
10-14 12:15:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x7ba278…
10-14 12:15:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xdae29b…
10-14 12:15:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0x124eda…
10-14 12:15:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0xbe123e…
10-14 12:15:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xb3ed94…
10-14 12:15:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x6a128f…
10-14 12:15:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x4b2236…
10-14 12:15:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x96f1e2…
10-14 12:15:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x95a7b7…
10-14 12:15:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xe913a2…
10-14 12:15:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xd53864…
10-14 12:15:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0x6e0161…
10-14 12:15:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x4ae085…
10-14 12:09:59	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	SELL	111	80¢	$88	0x6ec6f2…
10-14 12:09:56	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	SELL	120	80¢	$96	0x29b61f…
10-14 12:09:53	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	SELL	120	80¢	$96	0xe0333f…
10-14 12:09:53	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	SELL	120	80¢	$96	0xb3b8bd…
10-14 12:09:53	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	SELL	114	80¢	$92	0x6ea878…
10-14 11:15:49	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	270	51¢	$138	0x33ab60…
10-14 11:11:59	bitcoin up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	800	47¢	$374	0x2d29d6…
10-14 11:11:37	bitcoin up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	323	46¢	$149	0x98ffde…
10-14 11:11:02	bitcoin up or down october 14 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	315	52¢	$164	0xf58758…
10-14 05:43:31	bitcoin up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	228	53¢	$121	0x543e72…
10-13 08:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13?	Up	SELL	792	90¢	$711	0x8b1ea3…
10-13 08:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13?	Up	SELL	23	89¢	$20	0x076a63…
10-12 16:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13?	Up	BUY	600	51¢	$306	0xaf2a7d…
10-12 16:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13?	Up	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x10c9e5…
10-12 15:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6c4db6…
10-09 15:47:52	bitcoin up or down on october 9 2026	Up	SELL	1,142	100¢	$1,141	0x9d7d6b…
10-09 12:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	SELL	1,000	97¢	$970	0x59e3b5…
10-09 09:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	SELL	400	93¢	$372	0x8371c1…
10-09 09:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	SELL	1,000	93¢	$934	0x2b4079…
10-08 18:43:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	1,587	63¢	$1,000	0x944731…
10-08 16:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	341	49¢	$168	0xb072c9…
10-08 16:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	449	49¢	$220	0xf290ab…
10-08 16:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	999	50¢	$500	0x863779…
10-08 16:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	166	48¢	$80	0x9bb302…
09-29 10:20:36	bitcoin up or down on september 29 2026	Up	SELL	126	87¢	$110	0x7affda…
09-29 10:17:36	bitcoin up or down on september 29 2026	Up	SELL	327	90¢	$294	0x8551d3…
09-29 10:17:17	bitcoin up or down on september 29 2026	Up	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x943728…
09-28 15:59:05	bitcoin up or down on september 29 2026	Up	BUY	473	51¢	$241	0xe809f7…
09-16 18:03:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,124	100¢	$1,122	0x25138e…
09-16 13:48:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0x4075ee…
09-11 12:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	1,803	7¢	$131	0x7891f5…
09-11 12:09:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	610	40¢	$244	0x2ce3ed…
09-11 11:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	1,855	54¢	$1,000	0x4ee137…
09-11 11:52:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	610	41¢	$250	0xf24e00…
09-09 18:43:27	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	SELL	635	100¢	$634	0xd181f8…
09-09 18:43:27	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xc5d603…
09-09 18:43:27	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	SELL	712	100¢	$711	0x6f4229…
09-09 18:43:27	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	SELL	575	100¢	$574	0x223f75…
09-09 18:43:25	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	SELL	295	100¢	$294	0x1b7975…
09-09 15:59:12	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	No	BUY	295	68¢	$200	0x9bd324…
09-09 15:55:52	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	BUY	1,128	89¢	$1,000	0x5776f8…
09-09 15:55:24	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	BUY	186	84¢	$156	0x64b3e7…
09-09 15:54:10	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?	No	BUY	698	82¢	$571	0xf467f2…
09-04 12:30:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,292	45¢	$2,394	0x457c50…
09-03 12:36:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,292	57¢	$3,000	0x44dfae…
08-26 12:26:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 12:15 UTC	Up	SELL	509	99¢	$505	0xc399fc…
08-26 12:13:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	283	53¢	$150	0xe12d2d…