Loyal-Speculation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

280

Trades

282

lifetime

Volume

$3.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-31 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 229 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$4

Politics

3% 80% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-14 14:26
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$23	24	+24	No	-$23	05-15 05:29
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-13 06:15
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-12 07:23
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 11?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-11 11:37
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-10 09:22
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-09 09:20
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on May 8?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-08 04:05
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-07 17:03
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-07 06:29
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 6?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-06 09:33
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on May 5?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-05 11:45
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-05 02:47
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 3?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-03 15:00
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-04 15:53
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 2?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-02 11:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$1	04-12 02:31
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-08 10:26
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-07 07:04
highest temperature in seoul on april 5 2026 12c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-05 09:13
highest temperature in lucknow on april 3 2026 36c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 14:17
highest temperature in wellington on april 3 2026 20c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 07:36
highest temperature in seoul on april 2 2026 14c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 10:30
highest temperature in los angeles on april 1 2026 68 69f	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-02 03:30
highest temperature in istanbul on april 1 2026 15c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-01 15:13
highest temperature in wellington on april 1 2026 17c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-01 08:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-31 08:31
highest temperature in miami on march 30 2026 80 81f	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-31 01:46
highest temperature in chongqing on march 30 2026 24c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-30 09:21
highest temperature in miami on march 29 2026 82 83f	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-30 01:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:52:01	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9349db…
10-31 10:41:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x858fd5…
10-30 10:13:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x42da56…
10-29 17:40:20	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf7d562…
10-29 09:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xea2f01…
10-28 07:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x723605…
10-27 08:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f40c4…
10-26 09:16:26	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x44e39f…
10-24 11:22:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xabd0ee…
10-22 10:12:14	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x38e93b…
10-20 07:30:50	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd02356…
10-19 09:09:29	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb86361…
10-18 09:06:41	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x30c753…
10-17 14:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0b251…
10-16 08:59:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x87c2b4…
10-15 09:17:34	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1c139e…
10-14 09:17:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x27da7e…
10-13 09:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3fd44c…
10-12 08:23:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x109926…
10-11 08:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x32a865…
10-08 08:24:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x00389f…
10-07 14:18:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5bff8e…
10-06 07:46:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2bed7b…
10-04 15:10:08	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70332c…
10-03 07:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xadae30…
10-02 11:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3eca5a…
10-01 08:18:05	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on October 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4152e0…
09-30 15:48:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe1fe62…
09-30 12:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x118a39…
09-29 14:09:15	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x00ad19…
09-28 09:26:53	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbbeeb0…
09-27 08:43:59	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb60b52…
09-25 12:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc77df3…
09-24 08:25:32	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x85825b…
09-23 07:15:38	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b5846…
09-22 08:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4c0667…
09-21 09:18:42	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56423f…
09-20 05:39:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa40fd7…
09-19 08:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5064ef…
09-18 06:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x329700…
09-17 04:01:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcb3316…
09-16 08:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3527cc…
09-15 09:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xee3a71…
09-14 08:21:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x958102…
09-12 16:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8e6ff2…
09-11 07:15:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbb1b27…
09-10 06:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3c28ba…
09-09 02:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89a3dc…
09-08 02:35:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1c3b20…
09-07 08:18:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4588c5…
09-06 17:32:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11b3f6…
09-06 09:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3c1862…
09-05 01:03:36	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf1120b…
09-03 09:47:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x443b82…
09-02 07:37:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa03dd3…
08-30 08:29:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8ab278…
08-29 07:58:07	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcad1b5…
08-28 08:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x964dbb…
08-27 08:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7b0a8…
08-26 08:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8844a4…
08-25 09:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x912c02…
08-24 09:50:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x812bf0…
08-23 14:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d5511…
08-22 08:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f6db1…
08-21 07:10:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70471d…
08-20 08:38:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb86dda…
08-19 11:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x87bb56…
08-18 08:12:25	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16b21f…
08-17 07:20:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21c17d…
08-16 11:16:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcb89c0…
08-15 09:45:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60f50b…
08-14 06:46:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcec2a4…
08-13 07:54:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8133e6…
08-12 07:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3bd8ba…
08-11 06:51:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xacdb95…
08-10 07:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa59df5…
08-09 01:21:48	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb7de49…
08-08 07:26:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4302de…
08-07 01:09:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x47613c…
08-06 06:35:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a3c98…
08-05 07:51:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f17ed…
08-04 08:11:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x599582…
08-03 07:16:35	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29ca93…
08-02 01:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x95b0a0…
08-01 06:59:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x783826…
07-31 08:23:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x218b24…
07-30 06:47:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x432051…
07-29 06:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3a6210…
07-28 06:20:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9bc443…
07-27 08:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfb3748…
07-26 06:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3ad25…
07-25 07:48:46	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x08566e…
07-24 09:55:45	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x28c3df…
07-23 07:29:03	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4189bf…
07-22 01:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x608f95…
07-20 23:53:51	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4407f8…
07-20 07:49:25	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfb34f2…
07-18 23:13:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5c356b…
07-18 00:24:40	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x723d59…
07-17 06:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb2e11f…