Daring-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$310

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.6%

Resolved

Trades

722

lifetime

Volume

$16.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-20 23:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 72% +$287

Other

1% 50% +$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
eth updown 15m 1770146100	27	$693	591	589	+1	open	—	02-03 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$664	382	382	+0	open	—	05-18 15:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	4	$634	412	412	+0	open	—	05-18 10:09
eth updown 15m 1770141600	8	$450	391	386	+5	open	—	02-03 18:11
btc updown 15m 1770142500	7	$419	380	100	+280	open	—	02-03 18:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	4	$371	381	381	+0	open	—	05-18 15:08
eth updown 15m 1770142500	4	$310	255	253	+2	open	—	02-03 18:22
eth updown 15m 1770129000	5	$304	170	170	+0	open	—	02-03 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	4	$295	168	168	+0	Down	+$35	05-12 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	4	$286	247	247	+0	Up	$-14	05-12 19:59
btc updown 15m 1770066900	8	$283	186	184	+2	open	—	02-02 21:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	2	$279	189	189	+0	Up	+$79	05-12 19:52
sol updown 15m 1770064200	4	$270	172	171	+1	open	—	02-02 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$252	168	168	+0	Down	+$61	05-07 18:29
eth updown 15m 1770111000	3	$242	249	0	+249	open	—	02-03 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	3	$234	130	130	+0	Up	+$24	05-13 21:30
eth updown 15m 1770048000	8	$218	137	115	+22	open	—	02-02 16:13
btc updown 15m 1770065100	7	$210	240	0	+240	open	—	02-02 20:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$210	118	118	+0	Up	+$10	05-13 21:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	2	$206	124	124	+0	Down	+$6	05-12 19:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$205	162	162	+0	Up	+$5	05-12 19:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$203	137	137	+0	open	—	05-14 10:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$202	104	104	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$202	105	105	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 09:03
eth updown 15m 1770140700	11	$197	367	367	+0	open	—	02-03 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	3	$190	260	0	+260	open	—	05-18 09:59
sol updown 15m 1770224400	2	$188	100	100	+0	open	—	02-04 17:12
eth updown 15m 1770046200	4	$183	151	50	+100	open	—	02-02 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	3	$174	106	106	+0	open	—	05-20 23:19
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$174	94	94	+0	Up	+$14	05-12 19:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 23:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	53	85¢	$45	0x77be44…
05-20 23:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	53	54¢	$29	0xde8ed5…
05-20 23:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x57e2c4…
05-20 23:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x2b3604…
05-20 23:13:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xbedd5d…
05-20 23:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	67	76¢	$51	0xd0ff9c…
05-20 23:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	27	76¢	$21	0x6b00c5…
05-20 23:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x428e8d…
05-20 23:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xbfe54a…
05-18 15:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	122	18¢	$22	0x3775ce…
05-18 15:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x45a929…
05-18 15:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x0047fa…
05-18 15:08:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	179	34¢	$61	0x0d242f…
05-18 15:07:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x386266…
05-18 15:06:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	201	55¢	$110	0x3a79a2…
05-18 15:06:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	201	50¢	$100	0x62984d…
05-18 15:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	382	95¢	$364	0x7d4984…
05-18 15:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x73b81e…
05-18 15:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	126	80¢	$100	0x7fcdd6…
05-18 15:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x0ac3a0…
05-18 10:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	214	96¢	$206	0xd7b41f…
05-18 10:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	198	65¢	$129	0xba7e86…
05-18 10:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0x9fe1e2…
05-18 10:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	295	68¢	$200	0x881d02…
05-18 10:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x975f7f…
05-18 10:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xbf2cef…
05-18 10:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x68f8d6…
05-18 10:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xdcca2d…
05-18 09:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x723628…
05-18 09:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x480626…
05-18 09:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xb295b9…
05-14 10:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	137	75¢	$103	0x37304a…
05-14 10:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0x0cc5a9…
05-14 10:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	991	10¢	$100	0xc7cec5…
05-13 21:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	118	93¢	$110	0x4571d1…
05-13 21:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x1fa0d9…
05-13 21:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x4dfe89…
05-13 21:32:52	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x28a1aa…
05-13 21:31:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x6495bb…
05-13 21:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0x1a2812…
05-13 21:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	130	99¢	$129	0xdcbe8d…
05-13 21:29:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xb0adbe…
05-13 21:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xaf74e8…
05-13 18:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa11662…
05-13 18:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x030429…
05-13 18:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	24	23¢	$5	0x82a3ba…
05-13 18:53:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x5db668…
05-13 18:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	188	12¢	$23	0x470fb3…
05-13 18:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x1cba2f…
05-13 18:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd8f0e1…
05-13 18:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0x52eddc…
05-13 18:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x0dc51e…
05-13 18:42:53	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x74f97a…
05-13 18:42:11	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x261536…
05-13 09:15:06	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x17309e…
05-13 09:13:14	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x2b407d…
05-13 09:11:17	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x9713ae…
05-13 09:11:15	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x8f852c…
05-13 09:08:52	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0xf9ee29…
05-13 09:05:43	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x41f4dd…
05-13 09:03:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	105	97¢	$102	0xb67353…
05-13 09:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x6ebdb9…
05-12 19:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	247	55¢	$136	0xa1e90f…
05-12 19:57:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	66	75¢	$50	0x91b5f5…
05-12 19:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x568285…
05-12 19:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0x4c9ef4…
05-12 19:52:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x539990…
05-12 19:52:42	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	64	95¢	$61	0x1e1ef4…
05-12 19:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	189	95¢	$179	0x5f8c45…
05-12 19:52:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xfce56e…
05-12 19:51:28	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	64	79¢	$50	0x8b7c20…
05-12 19:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x954ad2…
05-12 19:49:26	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	94	99¢	$94	0xdb2dbc…
05-12 19:48:09	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	94	85¢	$80	0x3a4951…
05-12 19:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	162	65¢	$105	0xe66413…
05-12 19:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x2d93bc…
05-12 19:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	121	66¢	$80	0xfb9aed…
05-12 19:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	168	98¢	$165	0x0dec4f…
05-12 19:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x936588…
05-12 19:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xd7a507…
05-12 19:41:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	38	64¢	$24	0xf1c4d1…
05-12 19:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0x523090…
05-12 19:40:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x1f2c82…
05-12 19:36:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	124	86¢	$106	0xb84fb2…
05-12 19:36:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	124	80¢	$100	0x7c661d…
05-12 19:34:11	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0x382d7a…
05-12 19:33:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x0574a9…
05-12 19:32:47	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x5315a4…
05-12 19:32:36	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x04d2e9…
05-12 19:31:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0x512c32…
05-12 19:29:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0x22748c…
05-12 19:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xbed60c…
05-12 19:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0xbdb296…
05-12 19:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x9058cd…
05-12 19:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x7d1940…
05-11 18:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	182	11¢	$20	0xecf9b1…
05-11 18:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x00fc8e…
05-11 18:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x6bcffe…
05-11 18:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x55e4c2…
05-11 18:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x202b4f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xf49a…f9ba	135	$1.31K	2,130	03-09 12:24
Palatable-Patent 0x0c7c…e4cb	133	$12.5K	4,807	05-18 15:09
(anonymous) 0xfb1c…963e	132	$31.8K	2,026	05-13 21:27
(anonymous) 0x3415…71b7	128	$639	129	02-04 17:07
(anonymous) 0xcbd5…d185	127	$693	131	02-04 17:07
(anonymous) 0xe007…548c	122	$115.3K	12,494	02-08 20:28
Indolent-Classroom 0x0d19…38d1	121	$585	122	02-08 20:22
(anonymous) 0x88f4…d4db	120	$28.8K	2,665	05-20 23:19