Modest-Moat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

28.1%

Resolved

Trades

173

lifetime

Volume

$471

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 06-07 13:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Politics

40% 6% -$26

Other

31% 28% +$46

Sports

20% 21% -$15

Crypto

5% 20% -$8

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$3

Tech

2% 0% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-07).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$32	89	89	+0	No	+$16	05-28 16:44
Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	6	$24	95	95	+0	No	-$3	05-12 02:14
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	4	$23	134	134	+0	No	+$0	05-15 11:34
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	2	$19	120	120	+0	No	+$7	05-24 13:40
Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	6	$19	106	106	+0	No	-$8	05-14 08:06
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	4	$13	77	77	+0	No	-$1	05-22 14:03
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	4	$13	72	72	+0	No	-$2	05-12 02:14
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	2	$11	138	138	+0	No	-$3	05-12 02:13
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?	4	$11	48	47	+1	Yes	-$3	05-26 17:37
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	2	$11	11	11	+0	Yes	$0	05-14 02:25
Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN?	3	$11	16	16	+0	No	+$3	05-13 07:27
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	3	$10	8	8	+0	Houston Astros	+$3	05-17 00:36
Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	6	$10	54	54	+0	No	-$4	05-11 00:20
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$9	193	193	+0	No	+$1	05-12 02:12
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	3	$9	48	48	+0	No	-$4	05-12 02:13
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	2	$9	22	22	+0	Pittsburgh Pirates	-$3	05-12 23:10
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?	2	$9	30	30	+0	Yes	-$2	05-10 19:56
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	7	$9	77	77	+0	No	-$5	05-26 00:35
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$9	72	0	+72	No	-$9	05-14 15:24
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	5	$8	103	103	+0	No	-$8	06-07 13:27
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	5	$8	10	10	+0	Yes	-$1	05-27 13:06
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs	2	$8	13	8	+5	Chicago Cubs	$0	05-05 01:38
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$8	133	133	+0	No	+$0	05-11 21:19
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	3	$8	16	16	+0	New York Yankees	-$2	05-03 17:56
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	3	$7	27	27	+0	Yes	-$5	05-16 05:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	4	$7	18	18	+0	Yes	-$2	05-23 15:13
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	2	$7	13	13	+0	Atlanta Braves	-$2	05-20 23:05
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?	2	$7	35	35	+0	Yes	-$2	05-28 16:44
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	2	$7	6	6	+0	No	+$0	05-24 13:41
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros	2	$6	11	11	+0	Los Angeles Dodgers	-$1	05-06 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 13:27:22	Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	103	0¢	$0	0xd979b8…
06-07 13:27:15	tread fdv above 200m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0x39ca9e…
06-07 13:27:06	tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x1151fd…
06-07 13:26:54	will neuralinks valuation hit low 35b by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x55cc18…
06-01 23:54:31	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x73e50f…
06-01 23:54:24	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xf84db4…
05-28 20:07:07	Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xfc38b9…
05-28 16:44:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	14¢	$5	0x5c9a56…
05-28 16:44:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	10¢	$2	0x1bf53d…
05-28 16:44:35	Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?	No	SELL	35	7¢	$2	0x86d69b…
05-28 03:26:49	Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x3aefb6…
05-27 23:50:42	Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?	No	BUY	35	13¢	$5	0x546559…
05-27 22:07:20	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x0f370f…
05-27 13:06:02	Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xb1e28c…
05-27 13:05:30	Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xa54d62…
05-27 13:05:13	Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x39c899…
05-27 09:14:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xcdf739…
05-27 08:19:23	Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf779ba…
05-27 02:55:32	Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x4fc454…
05-27 02:53:00	Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x58a9d8…
05-27 00:45:54	Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0x6613c8…
05-26 23:49:40	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x434338…
05-26 23:49:36	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xfabdc5…
05-26 22:09:06	Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July?	Yes	SELL	43	5¢	$2	0xc95396…
05-26 17:37:36	Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?	No	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x83194b…
05-26 17:31:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0xcafef6…
05-26 09:00:16	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xacf33a…
05-26 01:21:18	Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x65c11e…
05-26 00:54:40	Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July?	Yes	BUY	43	6¢	$3	0x2ba463…
05-26 00:35:01	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x296147…
05-26 00:33:58	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0xc08a86…
05-25 22:58:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x32d840…
05-25 22:57:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x9ffe69…
05-25 22:56:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0xd9ef3d…
05-25 21:53:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x19fc85…
05-25 20:01:28	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x42bd92…
05-25 16:43:36	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xc44411…
05-25 05:54:17	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xac09a3…
05-25 05:52:11	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x6fbdf3…
05-25 05:52:09	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x22668c…
05-25 05:51:38	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xd88c06…
05-25 00:46:59	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0xe19760…
05-24 22:25:12	Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?	No	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x7c66af…
05-24 13:42:11	Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x3fba1a…
05-24 13:41:05	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	SELL	6	62¢	$3	0x8e50fb…
05-24 13:41:01	Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?	No	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0x005136…
05-24 13:40:58	Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xb75ccb…
05-24 13:40:54	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	Yes	SELL	120	11¢	$13	0x7c14c0…
05-24 04:59:52	Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?	No	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0x62494d…
05-24 03:10:02	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0xd3551d…
05-23 20:05:48	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x7c0406…
05-23 19:03:32	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x022c50…
05-23 19:02:25	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0x79b15d…
05-23 19:01:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xddade4…
05-23 19:01:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xbaca5e…
05-23 15:13:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x1b2830…
05-23 14:25:29	Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x7f88d9…
05-23 13:54:41	Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x535e54…
05-23 09:25:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x9d5549…
05-23 04:02:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xbab885…
05-23 01:03:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x64e4e1…
05-22 14:03:53	Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	53	6¢	$3	0x988b33…
05-22 14:02:17	Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0x4a6786…
05-21 17:22:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	36¢	$12	0xd98e70…
05-21 17:22:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	36¢	$7	0x2d8a6e…
05-21 03:31:13	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x46df75…
05-21 03:25:58	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0xb96a71…
05-21 03:12:43	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x79b90f…
05-21 02:23:12	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0xac0543…
05-21 01:44:16	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	9¢	$4	0x8c4905…
05-20 23:05:09	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xb6bd3a…
05-20 09:54:58	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xf1adda…
05-20 07:27:18	Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 5%?	Yes	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0x17e192…
05-20 05:17:52	Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 5%?	Yes	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0xb364b4…
05-19 14:32:04	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x1d9060…
05-19 13:18:31	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0x3987e1…
05-17 21:36:25	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x15a120…
05-17 20:30:44	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xd431bb…
05-17 14:31:55	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xbcb01f…
05-17 14:31:43	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xdff127…
05-17 12:59:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	9¢	$8	0x61e8e1…
05-17 00:36:42	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xd167e1…
05-16 23:24:38	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x87c283…
05-16 20:13:49	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	SELL	11	14¢	$2	0xb86e5d…
05-16 16:35:04	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	11	40¢	$5	0x2d13bb…
05-16 16:30:52	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0x8d5fcd…
05-16 05:00:11	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	No	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xa06cc1…
05-16 04:58:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	No	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x13c446…
05-15 14:28:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	No	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0xaf3261…
05-15 11:34:14	Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	64	8¢	$5	0x87a825…
05-15 11:33:11	Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Yes	BUY	64	9¢	$6	0x725d81…
05-15 10:46:10	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xb3520d…
05-14 23:52:59	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0x5da91a…
05-14 23:51:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x21b4b5…
05-14 15:24:59	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$4	0x450719…
05-14 15:24:10	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	12¢	$9	0x48e532…
05-14 14:33:51	Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	No	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x245575…
05-14 08:06:22	Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x9e4de5…
05-14 08:04:46	Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	55	4¢	$2	0xe69b5d…
05-14 02:25:02	Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	No	SELL	11	51¢	$5	0x701310…