Modest-Moat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$207

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 06-07 13:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Sports

35% 0% $-5

Politics

27% — —

Other

20% — —

Crypto

12% — —

Pop-Culture

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$32	89	89	+0	open	—	05-28 16:44
Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN?	3	$11	16	16	+0	open	—	05-13 07:27
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	3	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	05-17 00:36
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	2	$9	22	22	+0	Pittsburgh Pirates	$-3	05-12 23:10
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?	2	$9	30	30	+0	open	—	05-10 19:56
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$9	72	0	+72	open	—	05-14 15:24
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs	2	$8	13	8	+5	Chicago Cubs	$-0	05-05 01:38
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	3	$8	16	16	+0	open	—	05-03 17:56
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	3	$7	27	27	+0	open	—	05-16 05:00
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	2	$7	13	13	+0	open	—	05-20 23:05
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?	2	$7	35	35	+0	open	—	05-28 16:44
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros	2	$6	11	11	+0	Los Angeles Dodgers	$-1	05-06 18:58
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	6	$6	65	65	+0	open	—	05-14 23:52
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	2	$6	11	11	+0	open	—	05-16 20:13
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	3	$6	10	10	+0	open	—	05-26 23:49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	2	$5	13	13	+0	open	—	05-25 22:58
Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?	2	$5	14	14	+0	open	—	05-05 11:48
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$5	14	14	+0	open	—	05-15 10:46
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels	2	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	05-17 20:30
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	2	$5	8	8	+0	open	—	05-17 21:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$5	10	18	-7	open	—	05-23 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-01 14:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-29 21:28
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$5	17	17	+0	open	—	05-23 19:03
tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	2	$3	20	20	+0	open	—	06-07 13:27
tread fdv above 200m one day after launch	3	$3	16	16	+0	open	—	06-07 13:27
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	2	$3	5	2	+3	open	—	05-25 22:57
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$2	12	12	+0	open	—	05-27 22:07
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	1	$2	0	24	-24	open	—	05-28 16:44
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	4	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	05-25 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 13:27:15	tread fdv above 200m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0x39ca9e…
06-07 13:27:06	tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x1151fd…
06-07 13:26:54	will neuralinks valuation hit low 35b by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x55cc18…
06-01 23:54:31	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x73e50f…
06-01 23:54:24	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xf84db4…
05-28 20:07:07	Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xfc38b9…
05-28 16:44:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	14¢	$5	0x5c9a56…
05-28 16:44:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	10¢	$2	0x1bf53d…
05-28 16:44:35	Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?	No	SELL	35	7¢	$2	0x86d69b…
05-27 23:50:42	Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?	No	BUY	35	13¢	$5	0x546559…
05-27 22:07:20	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x0f370f…
05-26 23:49:40	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x434338…
05-26 23:49:36	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xfabdc5…
05-26 09:00:16	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xacf33a…
05-25 22:58:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x32d840…
05-25 22:57:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x9ffe69…
05-25 22:56:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0xd9ef3d…
05-25 21:53:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x19fc85…
05-25 16:43:36	New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xc44411…
05-25 05:54:17	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xac09a3…
05-25 05:52:11	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x6fbdf3…
05-25 05:52:09	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x22668c…
05-25 05:51:38	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xd88c06…
05-23 20:05:48	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x7c0406…
05-23 19:03:32	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x022c50…
05-23 19:02:25	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0x79b15d…
05-23 19:01:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xddade4…
05-23 19:01:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xbaca5e…
05-23 15:13:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x1b2830…
05-23 09:25:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x9d5549…
05-23 04:02:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xbab885…
05-21 17:22:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	36¢	$12	0xd98e70…
05-21 17:22:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	36¢	$7	0x2d8a6e…
05-20 23:05:09	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xb6bd3a…
05-20 09:54:58	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xf1adda…
05-17 21:36:25	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x15a120…
05-17 20:30:44	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xd431bb…
05-17 14:31:55	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xbcb01f…
05-17 14:31:43	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xdff127…
05-17 12:59:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	9¢	$8	0x61e8e1…
05-17 00:36:42	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xd167e1…
05-16 23:24:38	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x87c283…
05-16 20:13:49	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	SELL	11	14¢	$2	0xb86e5d…
05-16 16:35:04	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	11	40¢	$5	0x2d13bb…
05-16 16:30:52	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0x8d5fcd…
05-16 05:00:11	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	No	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xa06cc1…
05-16 04:58:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	No	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x13c446…
05-15 14:28:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	No	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0xaf3261…
05-15 10:46:10	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xb3520d…
05-14 23:52:59	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0x5da91a…
05-14 23:51:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x21b4b5…
05-14 15:24:59	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$4	0x450719…
05-14 15:24:10	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	12¢	$9	0x48e532…
05-13 07:27:55	Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$2	0x387104…
05-12 23:10:32	Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Colorado Rockies	SELL	22	14¢	$3	0xcc07ad…
05-12 09:36:40	Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Colorado Rockies	BUY	22	27¢	$6	0xa1e05e…
05-10 19:56:52	Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x39839c…
05-10 06:07:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x18d1ec…
05-10 04:19:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x51271f…
05-10 03:29:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x611ed5…
05-10 02:42:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x1ea5fb…
05-06 18:58:08	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	SELL	11	22¢	$2	0xcaa58e…
05-06 09:53:10	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x4f480b…
05-05 11:48:42	Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0xb41fb7…
05-05 01:38:34	Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x9d739e…
05-04 16:19:36	Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xdba25f…
05-04 10:22:42	Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	13	34¢	$4	0x78864c…
05-03 17:56:46	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles	SELL	14	18¢	$3	0x52e63a…
05-03 17:56:40	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x83c038…
05-03 15:32:40	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xbaada9…
05-01 14:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xdc3c16…
05-01 07:22:36	Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0xad3d81…
04-30 10:31:54	Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x54750b…
04-30 07:01:08	Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xcf4db9…
04-29 21:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x64eaf1…