Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$380

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

11.7%

Resolved

212

Trades

2,084

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$236

14 positions

First seen

2026-09-26

last 10-27 18:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Other

60% 13% -$259

Politics

27% 10% -$64

Tech

7% 8% -$30

Crypto

4% 0% -$10

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% 33% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 214 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	+62	$40	57¢	$36	-$5	10-12 02:16
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	+66	$42	50¢	$33	-$9	10-22 00:31
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	+66	$27	50¢	$33	+$6	10-22 00:31
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	+62	$23	42¢	$26	+$3	10-12 02:16
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+20	$15	93¢	$19	+$4	10-22 03:14
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	No	+22	$17	79¢	$17	+$0	10-07 14:01
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+22	$17	72¢	$16	-$1	10-12 22:14
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	Yes	+22	$18	70¢	$15	-$3	10-14 01:41
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	+22	$13	66¢	$15	+$2	10-05 10:07
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	+22	$10	34¢	$7	-$3	10-05 11:27
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	+22	$5	30¢	$7	+$2	10-14 01:41
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+22	$6	28¢	$6	+$0	10-12 22:13
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	+22	$6	21¢	$5	-$1	10-07 11:50
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	+20	$5	7¢	$1	-$4	10-22 03:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?	8	$92	176	0	+176	open	—	10-23 06:24
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	6	$77	102	22	+80	open	—	10-13 11:28
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?	4	$73	44	44	+0	open	—	10-05 02:09
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	7	$72	108	22	+85	No	-$1	10-03 12:00
Canza FDV above $150M one day after launch?	7	$70	132	0	+132	open	—	10-25 10:13
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	7	$69	132	0	+132	open	—	10-22 00:31
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	7	$69	130	2	+128	open	—	10-12 09:09
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?	8	$68	130	2	+128	open	—	10-10 08:30
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30?	7	$68	128	4	+124	open	—	10-18 14:03
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	5	$68	54	34	+20	open	—	10-04 03:36
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	9	$67	129	5	+124	open	—	10-12 02:16
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 15, 2026?	4	$62	42	42	+0	No	-$1	10-02 11:54
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	5	$54	67	23	+44	No	$0	10-06 14:50
will texas instruments txn q3 analog revenue be above 20261008120026000 5pt25b	5	$51	110	0	+110	No	-$7	10-13 07:07
Will Tucker Kraft finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season?	4	$51	142	118	+24	open	—	10-14 09:39
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	4	$51	66	22	+44	open	—	10-23 02:10
AWS service disrupted by November 30?	6	$50	64	24	+40	open	—	10-26 01:53
Next James Bond announced by October 31, 2026?	4	$49	66	22	+44	open	—	10-13 11:34
will ge vernova gev q3 orders be above 20261008120047000 26b	5	$48	88	0	+88	open	—	10-14 22:55
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	6	$48	94	6	+88	open	—	10-06 11:37
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	4	$47	66	22	+44	open	—	10-10 04:25
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	5	$47	86	2	+84	open	—	10-12 13:03
will lam research lrcx q1 total revenue be above 20261008120025000 8pt5b	4	$47	88	0	+88	No	-$3	10-14 10:18
Grok (Web) Outage by October 31, 2026?	4	$47	88	0	+88	open	—	10-21 20:54
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026?	5	$47	88	4	+84	open	—	10-11 10:09
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?	7	$47	64	24	+40	open	—	10-10 08:30
ChatGPT Full Outage by November 30?	4	$47	88	0	+88	open	—	10-16 05:11
Will Jagrup Brar win the next Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	5	$47	88	0	+88	No	-$3	10-21 00:36
Will Solana hit $150 by June 30, 2027?	5	$47	88	0	+88	open	—	10-19 02:44
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	5	$46	89	1	+88	open	—	10-22 02:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 18:10:26	Will Shang-Chi die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x473cc5…
10-27 18:07:02	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth 0.5% to 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	18	32¢	$6	0x136f53…
10-27 11:23:02	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth 0.5% to 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	0	32¢	$0	0x61bea4…
10-27 09:18:02	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x0c35ee…
10-27 09:17:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x922057…
10-27 09:17:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x3d447f…
10-26 02:09:03	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%?	No	SELL	13	22¢	$3	0x589a4a…
10-26 02:05:24	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x5d37a0…
10-26 02:02:50	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?	Yes	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0xe5326e…
10-26 01:55:24	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	24¢	$5	0x6eb65b…
10-26 01:55:08	Will Joel Rowswell win the 2026 Sault Ste. Marie mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	22	24¢	$5	0xd77dab…
10-26 01:53:56	AWS service disrupted by November 30?	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x37a63c…
10-26 00:00:06	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xb0568c…
10-25 22:19:53	Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xdd5167…
10-25 21:37:00	Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x944751…
10-25 21:26:59	Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x10a7aa…
10-25 14:26:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0x2ff28b…
10-25 11:44:48	Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xbc1f80…
10-25 11:24:53	Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years?	No	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xae50aa…
10-25 10:28:17	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x8cd33f…
10-25 10:28:15	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0xccab8b…
10-25 10:28:15	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0xc76d8c…
10-25 10:16:20	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	No	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0xdd3956…
10-25 10:15:20	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x053ab9…
10-25 10:15:18	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0x6e52ba…
10-25 10:13:20	Canza FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0xb91e4b…
10-25 09:58:11	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	22	43¢	$9	0xf2b306…
10-25 09:58:08	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0xe5a567…
10-25 09:45:44	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x81f3d3…
10-25 09:38:33	Canza FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0x71db2d…
10-25 09:37:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0xbd3051…
10-25 09:37:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x10cb68…
10-25 08:55:21	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x86428e…
10-25 08:50:00	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0xc5263a…
10-25 08:46:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0xb28edd…
10-25 08:06:44	Will SZA headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0xdcace4…
10-25 08:06:44	Will SZA headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xb2c7b4…
10-25 07:22:56	Will Widow's Bay rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	No	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x367585…
10-25 07:22:54	Will Widow's Bay rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xbf6d64…
10-25 06:51:45	Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x1aa3c7…
10-25 06:14:21	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0x2b44de…
10-25 06:10:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?	Yes	BUY	21	20¢	$4	0xbec098…
10-25 06:10:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xa8c416…
10-25 06:03:53	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x595057…
10-25 05:48:44	Will Shang-Chi die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$6	0x5407c4…
10-25 05:46:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-03 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0xd14007…
10-25 05:46:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-03 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0xee6f20…
10-25 04:54:44	Will PSOE win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xa858d2…
10-25 04:54:42	Will PSOE win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x30a7d0…
10-25 04:47:14	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x61d770…
10-25 04:37:44	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0xce3b28…
10-25 04:37:41	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0xd08aa9…
10-25 04:37:12	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0x777ece…
10-25 04:37:12	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x3cd55a…
10-25 04:33:56	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	No	BUY	14	60¢	$9	0x066eab…
10-25 04:33:54	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	Yes	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x0cd613…
10-25 04:25:09	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x512f9f…
10-25 04:25:06	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	22	34¢	$7	0xc2ddf7…
10-25 04:14:38	Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x71ad79…
10-25 04:14:38	Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x693c34…
10-25 04:09:02	Will Maurice Vunobolki win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x32a3ee…
10-25 03:53:14	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0xb9e656…
10-25 03:38:41	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xb5486e…
10-25 03:13:29	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?	Yes	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x1d993d…
10-25 02:59:17	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0xb88b73…
10-25 02:57:33	Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x3d22ec…
10-25 02:57:14	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth 0.5% to 1.5%?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0xf55a2d…
10-25 02:57:14	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x3c08b2…
10-25 02:57:14	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x2cad14…
10-25 02:57:14	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x1a82f8…
10-25 02:55:17	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	22	33¢	$7	0xf409e2…
10-25 02:51:14	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0xb71199…
10-25 02:51:11	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0xc0dacd…
10-25 02:21:24	Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x5ab353…
10-25 02:21:23	Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x557e49…
10-25 02:00:38	Will PSOE win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	22	39¢	$9	0x8b2bac…
10-25 02:00:36	Will PSOE win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	22	65¢	$14	0x14b4c0…
10-25 01:39:00	Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0x8dbb59…
10-25 01:32:09	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	22	22¢	$5	0xa9dc8f…
10-25 01:30:54	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $323,000 and $327,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	26¢	$6	0x3988a1…
10-25 01:28:30	Will FTI Consulting (FCN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	22	35¢	$8	0xfe9314…
10-25 01:28:17	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	19¢	$4	0xe7f741…
10-25 01:28:05	Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	16¢	$4	0xe9c997…
10-25 01:27:48	Will AlloX FDV be above $65M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	22	30¢	$7	0x726bad…
10-25 01:27:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	22	33¢	$7	0xf9ce85…
10-25 01:27:20	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 350,000 and 400,000?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x3a2ad5…
10-24 12:31:12	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x475b45…
10-24 11:52:18	Will PP win the most seats in Cantabria in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	22	87¢	$19	0xa277d1…
10-24 09:55:30	Will Len Isleifson win the 2026 Brandon mayoral election?	No	SELL	19	53¢	$10	0x4133d7…
10-24 09:41:42	Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0x2995c3…
10-24 07:25:24	Will Podemos win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x639f46…
10-24 07:25:23	Will Podemos win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x693ec4…
10-23 23:40:05	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0xa37551…
10-23 22:54:30	Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x6d9b24…
10-23 18:24:21	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $150M and $175M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xdb8283…
10-23 17:45:23	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $150M and $175M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0xaabfb1…
10-23 17:45:23	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $150M and $175M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x935ac8…
10-23 17:45:23	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $150M and $175M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x84c48e…
10-23 16:57:36	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x16837e…
10-23 15:17:33	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0x912d4e…