Earnest-Capital — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.1%

Resolved

187

Trades

197

lifetime

Volume

$5.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 22:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 109 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 100% +$8

Other

46% 99% +$8

Politics

5% 100% +$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	3	$123	124	0	+124	No	+$0	05-02 10:57
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 12-18?	1	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$0	10-16 14:27
bitcoin above 58k on july 9 2026	1	$64	65	0	+65	Yes	+$0	07-07 18:27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$0	07-20 02:46
Will the Conservative Party win control of the most London borough councils?	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$0	05-06 12:28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	05-21 19:45
bitcoin above 54k on july 1 2026	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	06-30 22:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	1	$58	59	0	+59	Yes	+$0	05-26 03:34
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$58	58	0	+58	No	+$0	06-24 10:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 27?	1	$56	56	0	+56	Yes	+$0	10-27 03:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 20?	1	$56	56	0	+56	Yes	+$0	10-20 05:29
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	1	$55	56	0	+56	No	+$0	07-30 18:42
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	05-18 06:43
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	05-30 16:17
ethereum above 2600 on april 24	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	04-23 22:17
highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	1	$53	53	0	+53	Yes	+$0	04-16 10:11
highest temperature in mexico city on april 14 2026 21c	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	04-13 17:25
bitcoin above 66k on june 26 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	06-25 09:28
bitcoin above 92k on october 2 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	10-01 04:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 13?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	10-13 12:55
bitcoin above 64k on april 22	1	$52	52	0	+52	Yes	+$0	04-20 07:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?	2	$51	51	0	+51	Yes	+$0	09-17 22:49
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$0	07-16 21:04
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25?	1	$50	51	0	+51	Yes	+$0	04-24 23:04
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	2	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	06-22 07:30
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 5-11?	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	10-09 06:02
will ethereum dip to 2000 april 13 19	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	04-19 01:46
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	$0	04-03 13:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	05-05 04:21
bitcoin above 66k on july 11 2026	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	07-11 03:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 22:13:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on November 4?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xcaeb5a…
10-27 19:02:15	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa522fb…
10-27 03:01:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x3b1172…
10-26 05:17:05	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x84bf5b…
10-20 08:29:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xdeaf85…
10-20 05:29:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x9f701a…
10-18 12:58:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x3e061d…
10-16 14:27:54	Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x663bba…
10-13 12:55:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 13?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x679c04…
10-12 15:32:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x88a7ff…
10-09 14:21:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 9?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x556ab4…
10-09 06:02:04	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0x7d1e4a…
10-06 09:39:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xd12a8e…
10-01 05:15:12	bitcoin above 90k on october 2 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x9b8bdd…
10-01 04:53:08	bitcoin above 92k on october 2 2026	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x4e323d…
09-25 22:23:18	bitcoin above 80k on september 26 2026	Yes	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0xe72b8e…
09-25 17:04:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 21-27?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x18ab11…
09-23 12:24:20	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe20217…
09-21 20:55:13	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xa24f85…
09-17 22:49:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe04ee8…
09-17 18:50:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x83fbc0…
09-14 03:40:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 14?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc326f6…
09-12 06:59:42	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x9230d9…
09-07 14:26:37	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 8?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x3544d9…
09-04 03:04:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 5?	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xb073c4…
09-02 09:59:36	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x19d1a3…
08-26 22:55:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x7eb27f…
08-25 10:01:27	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xabd8fd…
08-23 23:38:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xa4a159…
08-22 04:35:42	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x88ef6a…
08-18 06:32:18	bitcoin above 62k on august 18 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2a99b8…
08-17 09:45:03	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x3808f2…
08-15 00:11:00	bitcoin above 60k on august 16 2026	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x722052…
08-12 12:25:18	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x71db73…
08-08 12:59:10	bitcoin above 64k on august 8 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x57a3bc…
08-07 20:37:45	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$41	0x15626c…
08-05 19:10:14	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x3d54cf…
07-30 20:54:09	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xaccbab…
07-30 18:42:11	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$55	0xd14348…
07-26 12:07:18	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 20 26 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xeb5d7b…
07-24 13:50:00	will bitcoin dip to 56k july 20 26 2026	No	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0x676d6b…
07-22 10:08:01	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xa419dd…
07-20 02:46:18	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$63	0x42d704…
07-18 22:54:39	Will Eric Cole win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x9094eb…
07-16 21:04:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$50	0xa2278e…
07-13 05:57:44	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa607f2…
07-12 17:06:49	bitcoin above 60k on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x86ff27…
07-11 06:01:41	will ethereum dip to 1600 july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xea499f…
07-11 03:19:49	bitcoin above 66k on july 11 2026	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x35ed57…
07-09 16:04:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xe3a8a9…
07-09 13:28:49	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7a3eb4…
07-07 22:59:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xc7883f…
07-07 18:27:29	bitcoin above 58k on july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$64	0x217e0b…
07-06 01:54:40	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 5	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x5a5b44…
07-05 06:38:52	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x4db999…
07-04 23:01:13	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x80645b…
07-04 09:07:05	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x19346e…
07-03 09:42:26	will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd814d1…
07-03 04:12:50	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xc1920a…
07-02 05:21:13	bitcoin above 56k on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x78223e…
07-01 22:27:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x5a3fd8…
06-30 22:32:07	bitcoin above 54k on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x897a4e…
06-30 09:54:17	Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xee6fb7…
06-25 09:28:08	bitcoin above 66k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xf4f514…
06-24 10:47:41	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xd8fa03…
06-22 07:30:04	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xcc5ae3…
06-22 05:29:34	bitcoin above 58k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xfa2724…
06-21 20:53:17	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x96d34e…
06-21 15:02:22	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x3582a5…
06-05 16:31:22	ethereum above 1900 on june 7 2026	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xfc0b1a…
06-02 17:36:53	Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xba316b…
06-01 21:34:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0x340540…
06-01 19:59:42	Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xbdcfc4…
06-01 09:29:03	Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb59a79…
05-31 22:09:28	Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x8a9cc6…
05-31 13:33:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9fcbc9…
05-30 22:00:56	Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7c360e…
05-30 19:25:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xae85a3…
05-30 16:17:30	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x7b235f…
05-30 06:29:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbc6ed9…
05-29 23:01:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7ec6c3…
05-29 02:54:54	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6ecfa8…
05-28 11:38:05	Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6679f4…
05-28 10:29:57	Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x6162b8…
05-28 00:35:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x19ad04…
05-27 15:29:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xefa78d…
05-27 12:35:22	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x2bc185…
05-26 18:18:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf64c77…
05-26 13:35:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbc3c49…
05-26 03:34:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	59	100¢	$58	0x7daeee…
05-25 16:30:56	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xe7d32f…
05-25 13:29:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x6df47d…
05-24 21:39:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x89ab1e…
05-24 15:30:03	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x26a697…
05-24 06:23:17	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x67c2af…
05-23 20:27:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xfeb16d…
05-23 14:43:55	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x4f9ffc…
05-23 00:50:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd4fd40…
05-22 09:33:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xb3c79e…
05-22 05:26:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x24e3de…