Earnest-Capital — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-30 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 100% +$0

Other

31% 100% +$0

Politics

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 54k on july 1 2026	1	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	06-30 22:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	1	$58	59	0	+59	open	—	05-26 03:34
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$53	53	0	+53	open	—	05-30 16:17
ethereum above 2600 on april 24	1	$53	53	0	+53	open	—	04-23 22:17
highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	1	$53	53	0	+53	open	—	04-16 10:11
highest temperature in mexico city on april 14 2026 21c	1	$53	53	0	+53	open	—	04-13 17:25
bitcoin above 66k on june 26 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	open	—	06-25 09:28
bitcoin above 64k on april 22	1	$52	52	0	+52	open	—	04-20 07:09
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25?	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	04-24 23:04
will ethereum dip to 2000 april 13 19	1	$48	48	0	+48	open	—	04-19 01:46
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	2	$48	24	24	+0	open	—	04-03 13:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?	1	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	05-05 04:21
ethereum above 2100 on april 22	1	$46	46	0	+46	open	—	04-21 22:05
bitcoin above 56k on july 2 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	open	—	07-02 05:21
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	2	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	04-27 08:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?	1	$40	41	0	+41	open	—	04-26 08:35
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	2	$39	40	0	+40	No	+$0	05-08 22:01
will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	1	$34	35	0	+35	open	—	04-17 16:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	2	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	05-20 00:54
highest temperature in wellington on april 21 2026 13c	1	$31	31	0	+31	open	—	04-21 11:25
ethereum above 1900 on april 14	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-13 10:51
highest temperature in chengdu on march 29 2026 13c	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	03-26 20:30
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 165 189	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	04-16 21:19
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	03-29 15:50
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 1?	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	04-30 22:40
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	05-19 06:13
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24?	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	05-24 15:30
bitcoin above 82k on april 18	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-17 12:39
bitcoin above 84k on april 24	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	04-23 14:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	05-04 06:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 05:21:13	bitcoin above 56k on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x78223e…
06-30 22:32:07	bitcoin above 54k on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x897a4e…
06-30 09:54:17	Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xee6fb7…
06-25 09:28:08	bitcoin above 66k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xf4f514…
06-22 05:29:34	bitcoin above 58k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xfa2724…
06-05 16:31:22	ethereum above 1900 on june 7 2026	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xfc0b1a…
06-01 21:34:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0x340540…
06-01 19:59:42	Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xbdcfc4…
06-01 09:29:03	Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb59a79…
05-31 13:33:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9fcbc9…
05-30 22:00:56	Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7c360e…
05-30 16:17:30	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x7b235f…
05-30 06:29:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbc6ed9…
05-29 23:01:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7ec6c3…
05-29 02:54:54	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6ecfa8…
05-26 18:18:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf64c77…
05-26 13:35:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbc3c49…
05-26 03:34:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	59	100¢	$58	0x7daeee…
05-25 13:29:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x6df47d…
05-24 21:39:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x89ab1e…
05-24 15:30:03	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x26a697…
05-24 06:23:17	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x67c2af…
05-23 00:50:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd4fd40…
05-22 09:33:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xb3c79e…
05-22 05:26:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x24e3de…
05-20 00:54:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc1e084…
05-19 17:43:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x90564a…
05-19 10:50:00	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xab9f23…
05-19 06:13:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x0237b1…
05-18 19:32:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe009f9…
05-16 09:20:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa16cf8…
05-12 02:59:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x608c9f…
05-11 15:03:54	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xdabf1e…
05-10 20:13:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x9042a2…
05-09 13:05:36	Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x785a83…
05-08 22:01:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4a227c…
05-08 08:00:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x16040d…
05-05 21:47:40	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbf19fb…
05-05 04:21:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xb2fc50…
05-04 06:51:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd03ce1…
05-03 10:54:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x0a3cc7…
05-02 06:44:22	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa9e80d…
05-01 10:01:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3b4ca7…
04-30 22:40:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 1?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x84a313…
04-29 15:08:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2e1b83…
04-27 08:15:44	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4f1cb5…
04-26 21:14:00	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on April 27?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb0e246…
04-26 18:34:40	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe0222c…
04-26 15:27:46	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4edf40…
04-26 08:35:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0xe4104d…
04-26 02:09:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x91c31b…
04-24 23:04:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	51	100¢	$50	0xc6252a…
04-24 20:26:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xbaf140…
04-23 22:31:08	highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 21c	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x090531…
04-23 22:17:24	ethereum above 2600 on april 24	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xb62250…
04-23 14:46:22	bitcoin above 84k on april 24	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x0c70b9…
04-22 06:54:02	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on april 22	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf9d7cf…
04-21 22:05:20	ethereum above 2100 on april 22	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x73b6c1…
04-21 11:25:50	highest temperature in wellington on april 21 2026 13c	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x603026…
04-21 00:54:34	ethereum above 2500 on april 21	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x84d654…
04-20 19:51:42	bitcoin above 84k on april 22	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb6cc08…
04-20 07:09:48	bitcoin above 64k on april 22	Yes	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xccbdf2…
04-19 07:33:42	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 165 189	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x733ef3…
04-19 01:46:10	will ethereum dip to 2000 april 13 19	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x8d1e31…
04-17 16:48:26	will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0xe7305b…
04-17 12:39:10	bitcoin above 82k on april 18	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xb74866…
04-16 21:19:10	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 165 189	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x2f3f59…
04-16 10:11:46	highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xd2483d…
04-15 21:47:12	bitcoin above 66k on april 18	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xcb6975…
04-15 02:44:20	bitcoin above 70k on april 15	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x21562e…
04-13 23:10:29	ethereum above 2100 on april 14	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x7ed488…
04-13 17:25:03	highest temperature in mexico city on april 14 2026 21c	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xd807c3…
04-13 10:51:57	ethereum above 1900 on april 14	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x76d8fc…
04-12 06:51:57	will patrick cantlay win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x34e4f6…
04-11 07:24:51	will ben griffin win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb130df…
04-07 06:18:23	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on april 7	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xad9820…
04-05 05:42:25	highest temperature in london on april 5 2026 18corhigher	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x02f630…
04-03 13:11:41	Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xeef831…
04-01 13:30:11	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on april 1	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x69adeb…
04-01 00:28:49	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 115 139	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x4096e1…
03-29 15:50:38	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xc5895f…
03-27 07:06:21	bitcoin above 60k on march 28	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x407883…
03-26 20:30:41	highest temperature in chengdu on march 29 2026 13c	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb3e38c…
03-14 17:48:51	Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc514fb…
02-10 08:28:17	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x34f45e…
02-04 12:48:32	will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf1f948…
01-27 01:50:11	will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeb6f1a…
01-22 20:05:14	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf2e5a0…
01-20 08:15:24	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2f1567…
01-13 06:16:49	will bitcoin dip to 60k in january 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x79af43…
01-10 02:28:16	will felix auger aliassime win the 2026 australian open	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x2cf6f8…
01-07 04:24:47	nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe18bad…
01-01 09:56:57	will frankenstein win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x17dce7…