Modest-Spokesman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.31K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

76.8%

Resolved

377

Trades

1,708

lifetime

Volume

$181.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$106

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 09-17 14:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Other

68% 79% -$1,668

Politics

18% 82% -$545

Crypto

13% 75% -$80

Tech

1% 33% -$102

Sports

0% 100% +$82

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No		+130	$8	6¢	$8	$0	09-06 12:35
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes		+0	-$4	82¢	$0	+$4	06-08 09:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	24	$8.0K	9,000	7,500	+1,500	Howard Bison	-$945	03-17 23:20
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports - Map 1 Winner	16	$4.6K	2,349	2,347	+2	KRÜ Esports	+$74	04-25 21:41
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31?	31	$4.6K	2,203	2,439	-236	No	+$54	05-31 02:37
will mrbeasts next video get between 76 and 77 million views on day 6	5	$3.6K	1,606	2,006	-400	No	+$20	03-27 13:41
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 60 79	2	$3.5K	3,504	0	+3,504	No	+$4	03-30 17:48
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	4	$3.2K	1,602	1,602	+0	No	+$1	04-02 07:55
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	14	$2.7K	1,467	1,387	+80	No	+$15	05-16 22:50
laso finance fdv above 50m one day after launch	16	$2.6K	1,365	1,365	+0	No	-$11	06-26 23:43
val geng pr1 2026 04 12	23	$2.5K	1,840	1,040	+800	Gen.G Esports	+$50	04-12 12:41
cs2 aur1 hotu 2026 04 13 game2	16	$2.4K	2,593	125	+2,468	Aurora Gaming	+$260	04-13 22:56
will mrbeasts next video get between 77 and 78 million views on day 6	7	$2.2K	2,142	266	+1,876	No	$0	03-27 15:34
will gta 6 cost 100	4	$2.2K	1,901	301	+1,600	No	+$2	02-28 22:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$2.1K	2,613	600	+2,013	Yes	-$108	04-07 22:33
will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1 287	5	$2.0K	2,103	100	+2,003	No	+$8	03-28 10:44
will mrbeasts next video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4	2	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	No	+$2	03-25 15:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	No	+$2	04-30 22:02
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	Yes	+$2	03-31 20:37
cs2 b8 3dmax 2026 04 06	5	$1.8K	1,000	2,000	-1,000	3DMAX	+$668	04-06 10:22
will xai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$1.7K	1,746	0	+1,746	No	+$5	03-31 13:02
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	6	$1.7K	1,706	0	+1,706	No	+$8	03-28 21:52
crude oil all time high by march 31	17	$1.7K	859	1,000	-141	No	+$24	03-17 16:49
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	3	$1.6K	803	803	+0	No	+$0	03-17 11:18
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	5	$1.6K	1,585	0	+1,585	No	+$5	03-31 22:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	16	$1.6K	1,300	625	+675	Yes	-$505	02-27 18:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	14	$1.5K	2,000	1,600	+401	Yes	+$112	03-02 20:36
cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	3	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	Texas Longhorns	+$0	03-17 15:44
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20	3	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	Iowa Hawkeyes	+$10	03-20 23:11
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch?	61	$1.5K	2,874	2,725	+149	open	—	09-17 13:49
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	6	$1.5K	1,542	994	+548	Yes	-$1,062	07-07 17:59
cbb sfl lou 2026 03 19	6	$1.4K	1,000	450	+550	Louisville Cardinals	+$7	03-19 22:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 14:47:27	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x560d50…
09-17 14:46:34	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	246	57¢	$140	0x723ad8…
09-17 13:56:25	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x1a89b5…
09-17 13:52:15	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x3600b8…
09-17 13:51:55	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0xd8ea3c…
09-17 13:49:28	Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xf0b8f3…
09-09 10:25:49	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x6db591…
09-09 10:21:12	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0xde9c2b…
09-09 09:03:10	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x497dde…
09-09 09:03:09	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0xab03bd…
09-09 02:31:19	Felix Protocol FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xaac3f3…
09-07 18:08:13	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	83	21¢	$17	0x2be95d…
09-07 09:20:09	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	18	91¢	$17	0x1094a6…
09-06 20:11:25	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	79	77¢	$61	0x53ecc7…
09-06 16:32:34	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	29	91¢	$26	0x9698a2…
09-06 12:35:30	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	130	6¢	$8	0x09ebf3…
09-06 11:46:00	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	54	10¢	$5	0xf3b9e4…
09-03 19:44:00	Umia FDV above $35M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x4248e1…
09-03 12:53:51	Umia FDV above $35M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xfb3cb2…
09-03 09:27:16	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0xcb988c…
08-27 18:10:04	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	130	93¢	$121	0xae70d4…
08-21 12:43:58	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x27cc69…
08-21 12:43:36	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0x15139f…
08-21 06:54:21	Tuyo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x179aa0…
08-18 18:17:18	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	130	94¢	$122	0xd20406…
08-18 09:45:01	Ethereal FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xeabc15…
08-11 15:08:46	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x37b808…
08-10 20:32:00	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	174	13¢	$22	0xacd5df…
08-10 19:40:55	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xca9734…
08-09 20:16:03	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0xc912ec…
08-09 20:15:28	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	32¢	$12	0xb1caac…
08-09 11:10:28	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xd6b156…
08-05 22:37:11	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	25¢	$3	0xe6bf05…
08-04 20:10:39	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xf211bb…
08-03 23:33:14	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	20¢	$12	0x06cafe…
08-03 15:33:39	Ethereal FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x2292e4…
08-03 10:39:51	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x87c0b0…
08-03 10:29:53	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x7e9832…
08-03 10:29:53	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x628d13…
08-03 10:29:23	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	205	27¢	$56	0xd0f118…
07-30 21:45:09	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0xeef9f3…
07-30 16:44:11	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	62	23¢	$14	0x35b261…
07-29 19:06:54	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	60	61¢	$37	0x253036…
07-29 19:06:29	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xa8ed6a…
07-29 19:06:27	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	24	62¢	$15	0xc3cb7d…
07-29 18:37:44	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xc6efa5…
07-29 10:12:48	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x768c82…
07-28 20:55:56	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	16	22¢	$3	0x1857a4…
07-28 20:55:22	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	70	23¢	$16	0x7deabe…
07-28 20:51:29	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x70d1ba…
07-28 20:50:52	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	137	45¢	$62	0xca65b5…
07-28 20:50:26	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	55	46¢	$25	0xd207e2…
07-28 20:48:55	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	104	47¢	$49	0xf55e49…
07-28 12:42:46	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x67f9d7…
07-28 12:42:46	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x67f9d7…
07-27 22:15:36	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0d31e6…
07-27 22:13:57	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x2d42e6…
07-27 20:18:15	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x80047f…
07-27 20:18:13	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9af502…
07-27 20:18:13	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0x9af502…
07-26 11:01:49	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xe39448…
07-26 02:31:21	Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$15	0xc6609e…
07-26 02:08:40	Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	92	90¢	$83	0x7e5dd2…
07-25 20:32:43	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	33	88¢	$29	0x55e63a…
07-24 09:43:12	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x55c3b1…
07-22 22:13:49	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$15	0x2add69…
07-22 08:25:49	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xf26a64…
07-22 08:20:31	Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xbc2b52…
07-22 08:16:18	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x29a268…
07-21 11:45:13	Ethereal FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	180	92¢	$166	0xcf7e7b…
07-21 05:19:19	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x015afd…
07-20 11:47:28	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xa49fc8…
07-20 10:25:39	Ethereal FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x9303da…
07-20 10:25:30	Ethereal FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x7f4ac3…
07-20 09:12:04	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x9c2404…
07-20 09:11:33	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0xf3fb83…
07-20 08:05:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0xb7d440…
07-20 07:54:06	Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	66¢	$40	0xf9335b…
07-19 18:23:43	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xf6de6c…
07-18 14:19:24	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0xacf623…
07-15 20:58:02	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0a50c8…
07-15 20:57:47	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xaee036…
07-15 20:56:37	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x022cad…
07-15 20:56:04	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xcae04c…
07-15 20:55:43	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	302	99¢	$300	0x77becc…
07-15 20:55:26	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	401	100¢	$400	0xc24341…
07-14 20:44:38	squid fdv above 200m one day after launch 483	Yes	SELL	85	19¢	$16	0x31ca79…
07-14 20:43:49	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	80	26¢	$20	0x50c15a…
07-14 20:43:40	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x1f60d4…
07-12 17:58:46	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0xb9446d…
07-12 11:38:10	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x71fc04…
07-12 11:24:49	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x064852…
07-09 21:54:55	Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x8feb55…
07-09 21:38:58	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0xc33847…
07-09 21:33:49	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xb3b5db…
07-09 15:59:17	Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	76	79¢	$60	0x4b6024…
07-08 06:51:28	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x4abceb…
07-07 21:54:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xd436cb…
07-07 21:53:20	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 btts	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x59332f…
07-07 21:52:20	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x015753…