Standard-Enthusiasm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

Trades

735

lifetime

Volume

$68.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$93

Open exposure

$441

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 07-22 02:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

85% 100% +$2

Other

12% 0% $-22

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-680	$-184	26¢	$-173	+$10	06-01 13:29
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	-408	$-167	36¢	$-147	+$20	07-02 06:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+79	$59	99¢	$78	+$19	06-11 12:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+200	$114	22¢	$43	$-71	05-30 02:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	4	$10.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	02-28 07:37
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	1	$5.4K	0	5,358	-5,358	open	—	02-28 07:33
Iran leadership change by April 30?	26	$4.3K	2,341	2,341	+0	open	—	04-30 13:52
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	5	$3.5K	2,800	1,800	+1,000	open	—	04-06 07:43
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	3	$2.2K	1,500	1,000	+500	open	—	04-08 08:32
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	36	$2.0K	1,400	1,441	-41	open	—	02-28 16:20
will iran strike israel on march 10	68	$1.9K	3,050	2,783	+267	open	—	03-13 11:09
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$1.9K	1,006	1,006	+0	open	—	04-01 04:31
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	18	$1.8K	1,104	1,104	+0	open	—	05-23 01:06
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	3	$1.8K	1,890	0	+1,890	open	—	07-18 16:07
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	23	$1.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-21 18:50
Iran leadership change by May 31?	4	$1.5K	1,064	591	+473	open	—	05-24 00:07
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	9	$1.5K	996	996	+0	open	—	03-06 08:52
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	7	$1.5K	1,815	0	+1,815	open	—	07-02 23:40
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	41	$1.4K	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	03-20 05:22
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-23 10:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	10	$1.2K	882	882	+0	open	—	03-31 22:18
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	16	$1.1K	1,186	1,186	+0	open	—	03-29 02:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	9	$1.1K	750	750	+0	open	—	04-30 21:05
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	7	$1.0K	679	679	+0	open	—	04-30 08:25
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	29	$982	1,809	503	+1,306	open	—	06-03 01:45
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	11	$974	600	600	+0	open	—	03-06 08:29
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	7	$834	732	500	+232	open	—	06-13 07:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$738	519	519	+0	open	—	04-08 01:23
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$729	618	618	+0	open	—	03-07 21:25
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	8	$646	1,546	0	+1,546	open	—	07-02 23:30
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	10	$619	550	350	+200	open	—	03-08 14:15
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	3	$558	300	300	+0	open	—	03-07 08:04
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	3	$530	332	220	+112	open	—	07-03 16:00
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$516	0	538	-538	open	—	06-01 13:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 02:58:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	120	81¢	$97	0xe7a328…
07-22 02:58:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xe71328…
07-21 15:55:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x6bcd33…
07-19 12:50:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	87	91¢	$79	0xc1f7a2…
07-18 16:07:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	720	96¢	$691	0x84ef47…
07-18 16:06:42	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	175	96¢	$168	0xaf729e…
07-18 16:04:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	995	96¢	$955	0xe9d185…
07-13 16:51:26	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	105	93¢	$97	0x232a31…
07-07 04:31:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xfa2ef0…
07-07 04:29:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0xd96c8b…
07-07 00:45:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x4b9e74…
07-07 00:45:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x42c5cc…
07-03 16:00:41	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	220	97¢	$213	0xea28e5…
07-02 23:40:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	664	89¢	$590	0xde9d39…
07-02 23:40:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	41¢	$410	0x2ffe13…
07-02 23:31:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	211	88¢	$186	0x92ebad…
07-02 23:30:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	254	27¢	$69	0x5e687b…
07-02 13:45:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	365	74¢	$270	0x25b8ef…
07-02 13:44:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	500	46¢	$230	0x894e15…
07-02 13:43:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	221	74¢	$164	0xe5933e…
07-02 13:42:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	292	44¢	$129	0xb48f6a…
07-02 09:54:53	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x16cc55…
07-02 09:35:55	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4e9205…
07-02 09:03:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	46	80¢	$37	0x347214…
07-02 09:02:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	107	80¢	$86	0x0b125c…
07-02 09:01:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x3ed578…
07-02 09:00:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	383	44¢	$169	0xdbe750…
07-02 09:00:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x6fefae…
07-02 08:59:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x6284a9…
07-02 08:59:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	49	43¢	$21	0x778fba…
07-02 08:59:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x15d27f…
07-02 06:56:13	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	408	41¢	$167	0x443dba…
07-01 00:24:53	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	320	96¢	$307	0x8046c0…
06-30 22:33:41	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x9abef0…
06-30 20:21:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x2f9815…
06-30 15:28:16	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x872f00…
06-30 08:41:52	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xae7ea3…
06-30 03:57:11	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xa7e9d8…
06-29 22:58:59	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x9c9665…
06-29 21:59:56	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by june 30 2026	No	SELL	17	93¢	$16	0x5df22e…
06-29 21:45:19	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x3490ba…
06-29 20:15:32	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x8665b3…
06-29 19:26:37	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xa23089…
06-29 18:10:32	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x450791…
06-29 17:26:14	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xc528b1…
06-28 01:57:16	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x846121…
06-26 15:55:38	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	12	93¢	$12	0x6d1bc3…
06-26 15:50:44	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0xf3e564…
06-25 23:40:46	will lula announce the nomination of an individual for minister of the supreme federal court of brazil by june 30 20260602182956654	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x647140…
06-24 16:05:40	will trump speak to xi jinping in june	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x8956aa…
06-16 13:23:55	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0xd8b46a…
06-15 04:28:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x2d760a…
06-15 04:26:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	312	0¢	$1	0x78298e…
06-13 07:11:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	92	59¢	$54	0x98d80b…
06-13 07:10:16	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	115	73¢	$84	0x7bc21a…
06-13 07:09:57	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	72¢	$61	0x83269b…
06-11 12:40:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	79	75¢	$59	0x307931…
06-11 00:10:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	33¢	$52	0x9d854f…
06-11 00:06:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xc5dc45…
06-10 13:33:58	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x799d4c…
06-10 08:42:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x64e9a1…
06-09 20:41:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0xfe8c6a…
06-09 20:36:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x436689…
06-08 21:49:00	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	No	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x84d2d5…
06-08 21:48:16	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	No	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x8ebb7f…
06-08 21:47:31	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xc4f1b2…
06-08 21:47:01	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x14cec5…
06-08 21:46:57	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x426b7f…
06-08 21:42:36	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in june 2026	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xe72130…
06-08 12:06:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xe19c39…
06-08 09:47:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x89e3af…
06-08 09:22:33	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x9dff32…
06-08 07:02:31	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	67¢	$335	0xdd2c39…
06-08 07:02:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	220	81¢	$178	0xf696e2…
06-08 06:57:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xd800ca…
06-08 05:54:57	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xa30e3a…
06-08 05:43:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x8a8deb…
06-08 05:22:37	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xc7f783…
06-08 04:28:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x2132df…
06-08 04:24:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x556089…
06-08 04:16:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x55ffc5…
06-08 04:08:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x65dc00…
06-08 04:03:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x256c2f…
06-08 04:02:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x8604ba…
06-08 03:14:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	16	54¢	$9	0x3eabe7…
06-08 03:14:01	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x868c33…
06-08 03:08:40	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xfa0e87…
06-08 03:03:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x371cde…
06-08 03:02:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xe38835…
06-08 03:01:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x4c90cc…
06-08 03:00:21	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x03b690…
06-08 02:59:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x9f3daa…
06-08 02:59:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x9f3daa…
06-08 02:58:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	4	35¢	$2	0xb3ad67…
06-08 02:58:16	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	10	35¢	$3	0xe059f4…
06-08 02:55:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x84122e…
06-08 02:53:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x8f66e4…
06-08 02:51:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xfc99f1…
06-08 02:45:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x1d1e61…
06-08 02:10:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x47ea7a…