Probable-Burst — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$527

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.4%

Resolved

395

Trades

451

lifetime

Volume

$21.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 95% -$404

Other

37% 94% -$134

Politics

5% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 72 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia strike kyiv on february 3 2026	2	$1.7K	1,826	0	+1,826	Yes	+$84	02-02 23:12
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-22 03:30 UTC	1	$1.5K	1,538	0	+1,538	Down	+$15	01-22 03:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 04:30 UTC	1	$1.5K	1,523	0	+1,523	Up	+$15	01-21 04:45
russia strike on kyiv municipality by january 24 2026	1	$1.5K	1,508	0	+1,508	Yes	+$2	01-20 03:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 01:45 UTC	1	$1.5K	1,506	0	+1,506	Down	+$35	01-18 01:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 01:00 UTC	1	$1.5K	1,471	0	+1,471	Down	+$1	01-18 01:14
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 22:15 UTC	1	$1.5K	1,471	0	+1,471	Down	+$15	01-13 22:29
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-13 22:00 UTC	1	$1.4K	1,456	0	+1,456	Up	+$15	01-13 22:11
another us strike on venezuela on january 5	1	$1.4K	1,442	0	+1,442	No	+$12	01-06 01:21
will russia strike kyiv on february 12 2026	1	$1.4K	1,437	0	+1,437	Yes	+$11	02-12 00:46
will trump talk to volodymyr zelenskyy in january	1	$1.0K	1,049	0	+1,049	Yes	+$11	01-22 11:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 01:25 UTC	1	$1.0K	1,012	0	+1,012	Up	+$10	03-05 01:29
will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 24 878	7	$700	834	0	+834	Yes	+$134	01-23 22:35
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	3	$500	559	0	+559	Yes	+$59	01-22 08:15
bitcoin up or down february 12 1pm et	1	$400	683	0	+683	Up	-$400	02-12 18:19
will russia strike kyiv on february 7 2026	1	$400	574	0	+574	No	-$400	02-06 22:59
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	1	$100	1,074	0	+1,074	Down	-$100	05-15 04:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3AM ET	4	$85	86	0	+86	Up	+$1	10-09 08:00
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 11AM ET	3	$57	57	0	+57	Down	+$0	10-16 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	09-02 10:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	09-03 02:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	1	$50	50	0	+50	Up	+$0	09-03 11:45
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 12-18?	6	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	10-17 12:22
will russia strike kyiv on february 17 2026	2	$35	55	55	+0	No	-$35	02-18 00:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3PM ET	2	$30	30	0	+30	Down	+$0	10-09 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6PM ET	2	$30	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	10-09 23:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	2	$30	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	10-05 20:25
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3AM ET	2	$30	30	0	+30	Up	+$0	10-16 08:01
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12PM ET	2	$30	30	0	+30	Down	+$0	10-12 17:02
BNB Up or Down - October 11, 6AM ET	3	$29	30	0	+30	Down	+$1	10-11 11:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:09:53	BNB Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa786eb…
10-27 17:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xda123d…
10-27 01:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x68243c…
10-26 16:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcc80b8…
10-26 13:59:54	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb29869…
10-26 13:59:44	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x36f575…
10-26 13:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfc76e2…
10-26 13:29:54	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5ea8b1…
10-26 12:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa07f0b…
10-25 21:39:54	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7a14b1…
10-25 11:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x17ac37…
10-24 22:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd62516…
10-24 21:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x52f506…
10-24 15:49:14	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa9a091…
10-24 15:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3d92da…
10-24 15:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x55dfcd…
10-24 15:19:05	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x013d8f…
10-24 14:54:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf381f4…
10-24 14:34:12	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6604f2…
10-24 14:29:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xade21d…
10-24 14:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x4ccc4f…
10-24 14:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x42ee13…
10-24 13:59:59	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0656c2…
10-24 12:54:21	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x47d2a6…
10-24 09:55:00	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x76f375…
10-24 06:09:05	BNB Up or Down - October 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc4b739…
10-24 05:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2c9791…
10-24 03:59:54	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe92522…
10-24 00:59:42	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x671371…
10-24 00:49:33	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf1b8d6…
10-24 00:44:20	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb4200c…
10-23 21:34:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x730d71…
10-23 21:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x45f112…
10-23 20:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xde2a18…
10-23 20:34:50	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xec0402…
10-23 18:35:00	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd59f4f…
10-23 16:29:27	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x887cbc…
10-23 15:39:30	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x45b6c7…
10-23 15:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x471b7f…
10-23 15:24:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x1eab79…
10-23 15:19:23	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4b5fd0…
10-23 15:00:02	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x164134…
10-23 09:59:11	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x458afe…
10-23 09:49:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xaef105…
10-23 03:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x98ee7d…
10-23 02:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3cf270…
10-23 02:29:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x75750a…
10-23 01:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8ab4a4…
10-23 01:29:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe812cc…
10-22 21:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x83b944…
10-22 20:24:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa91c66…
10-22 19:34:35	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x95b173…
10-22 18:24:15	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb6f5b6…
10-22 17:44:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x5167fd…
10-22 17:34:26	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x54179f…
10-22 17:34:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1e7744…
10-22 17:13:32	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe732cf…
10-22 17:13:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1c5123…
10-22 16:39:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x02f05c…
10-22 16:39:05	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa326bb…
10-22 16:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb903e8…
10-22 15:49:11	XRP Up or Down - October 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xab855c…
10-22 15:44:18	XRP Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb1fc09…
10-22 15:44:14	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x1951e5…
10-22 15:34:05	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6a0f6d…
10-22 15:14:20	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1c7a04…
10-22 14:54:38	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x88dc23…
10-22 14:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x694b25…
10-22 06:04:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x454f81…
10-22 03:39:14	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x35d1ee…
10-22 03:28:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3b59a2…
10-22 03:04:18	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcf7c90…
10-22 03:04:05	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2514df…
10-22 02:54:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x285a0d…
10-22 02:54:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbe7876…
10-22 02:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xadea39…
10-22 02:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x24376e…
10-22 02:34:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xf9de2b…
10-22 02:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x0b411c…
10-22 02:14:05	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6c7c59…
10-22 01:09:20	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x270d11…
10-22 01:09:08	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c3974…
10-21 22:24:15	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x24f409…
10-21 21:19:35	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbd70ed…
10-21 21:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2885ee…
10-21 21:04:45	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x0db773…
10-21 21:04:44	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x996100…
10-21 20:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x68621a…
10-21 20:09:27	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf41c50…
10-21 20:09:23	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xaefbbb…
10-21 20:04:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9da83c…
10-21 20:04:05	BNB Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x770060…
10-21 19:59:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe69aec…
10-21 16:29:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x155b6f…
10-21 14:19:15	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x3b287a…
10-21 13:29:59	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2476aa…
10-21 08:59:41	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6ccb92…
10-21 05:29:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2ab668…
10-21 03:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcbab23…
10-21 02:10:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4c0714…