Grizzled-Wetsuit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$415

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

93.0%

Resolved

2,345

Trades

3,101

lifetime

Volume

$96.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$16

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 09-02 23:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 164 days

Categories

Other

71% 82% -$3

Politics

28% 86% -$376

Crypto

2% 80% -$37

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	-100	-$24	15¢	$-15	+$9	07-21 08:59
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-50	-$2	3¢	$-1	+$1	07-21 08:58
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-100	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	07-21 08:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	7	$2.9K	1,496	1,496	-0	No	+$83	03-07 10:01
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 2nd	8	$2.6K	1,333	1,333	+0	No	+$12	03-02 22:56
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	8	$2.1K	1,109	1,109	+0	No	+$101	03-15 00:16
us forces enter iran by march 7	14	$1.3K	965	390	+575	No	+$16	03-07 20:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$1.2K	8,195	0	+8,195	Yes	-$1,181	04-10 11:47
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	7	$1.2K	1,085	206	+879	No	+$118	03-15 22:21
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$1.2K	704	704	+0	Yes	+$227	02-28 07:22
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$1.1K	554	554	+0	No	+$18	03-25 19:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$1.0K	524	524	+0	No	+$24	01-30 20:29
highest temperature in toronto on march 15 2026 5corhigher	17	$1.0K	508	508	+0	Yes	+$10	03-16 00:33
military action against iran ends by march 30 2026	9	$985	496	496	+0	No	+$5	03-30 16:48
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	10	$934	479	479	+0	No	+$12	01-21 12:50
will the us next strike iran on february 14 2026 et	2	$840	422	422	+0	No	+$3	02-16 15:11
googl close above 315 on february 11 2026	3	$725	365	365	+0	No	+$4	02-11 23:11
bitcoin above 76k on february 5	3	$721	723	0	+723	No	+$3	02-05 14:32
spx up or down on february 3 2026	3	$712	753	50	+703	Down	-$9	02-03 19:06
bitcoin above 80k on february 4	2	$703	708	0	+708	No	+$5	02-04 13:48
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	6	$701	718	0	+718	No	+$17	02-09 14:10
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 9 2026 29c	7	$694	351	351	+0	No	+$8	03-09 23:12
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$679	402	402	+0	Yes	+$108	02-28 07:05
highest temperature in toronto on february 27 2026 8c	4	$637	333	333	+0	No	+$27	02-28 06:25
highest temperature in miami on february 28 2026 80 81f	6	$597	304	304	-0	No	+$11	02-28 16:54
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	3	$595	300	300	+0	No	+$5	03-17 09:13
highest temperature in nyc on march 1 2026 44 45f	3	$593	601	0	+601	No	+$8	03-01 19:39
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	4	$586	663	76	+587	No	+$10	01-30 20:31
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	6	$586	612	0	+612	No	+$26	03-30 17:45
highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 64forhigher	5	$525	536	0	+536	No	+$11	03-16 18:34
highest temperature in chicago on march 16 2026 30 31f	10	$508	517	0	+517	Yes	+$10	03-16 16:00
highest temperature in ankara on march 16 2026 14c	3	$496	250	250	+0	Yes	+$1	03-16 19:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$490	250	250	+0	Yes	+$9	03-01 09:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-02 23:19:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	25	13¢	$3	0x99fa48…
09-02 08:20:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0x3b9178…
09-02 00:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$3	0xad5914…
09-01 21:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0x1dfa96…
09-01 08:20:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x9aa0e9…
09-01 01:19:18	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x692571…
08-31 21:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0xff38fa…
08-31 00:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0x269330…
08-30 23:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0x6a373b…
08-30 21:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0xa7f4fa…
08-30 08:20:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0x9b5b01…
08-30 00:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0xae7c04…
08-29 23:19:33	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x3fe21b…
08-29 21:10:33	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	25	49¢	$12	0x876065…
08-29 12:00:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 30?	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x0988ef…
08-29 08:23:30	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 29?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x2a5fc8…
08-29 08:20:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0x3a007d…
08-29 00:12:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x4a4b0b…
08-28 23:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x1ca57e…
08-28 21:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0xc1c087…
08-28 12:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 29?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x4cc7eb…
08-28 09:20:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0x8363f9…
08-27 23:19:21	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xec0934…
08-27 21:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xcf90de…
08-27 08:23:16	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0x5be351…
08-27 08:20:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0xcd811f…
08-26 23:19:13	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x21ae1f…
08-26 21:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x68cddb…
08-26 08:20:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x642424…
08-26 00:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	25	56¢	$14	0x77774c…
08-25 23:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0x160fa2…
08-25 21:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0xbb8592…
08-25 12:00:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 26?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x25ba2d…
08-25 01:11:55	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0x648ccd…
08-24 23:18:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x5cf42b…
08-24 21:09:54	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xbe9ab3…
08-24 12:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 25?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xb0fbb4…
08-24 05:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$9	0xd3685e…
08-24 00:19:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x40f186…
08-23 23:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x6d9b1f…
08-23 22:12:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	25	35¢	$9	0x7f751d…
08-23 12:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 24?	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x1cff13…
08-23 03:18:55	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0xc1aef1…
08-22 12:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 23?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x75b7d9…
08-22 12:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 23?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x258fc5…
08-22 07:29:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 22?	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x3a442e…
08-22 01:20:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x186e66…
08-21 23:19:21	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x46a46b…
08-21 22:12:21	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0xb6fa60…
08-21 13:26:19	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 21?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x53233b…
08-21 12:00:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 22?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xcb233f…
08-21 07:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 21?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xcec606…
08-20 23:19:13	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x8ec5e8…
08-20 13:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 20?	Yes	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0xa5f6e6…
08-20 12:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 21?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x1b1069…
08-20 07:29:07	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 20?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0x9ad1fc…
08-20 06:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x5f3bf0…
08-20 01:20:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x410e75…
08-19 23:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x41332b…
08-19 13:26:10	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 19?	Yes	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x849089…
08-19 12:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 20?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xf6a096…
08-19 07:29:00	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 19?	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0xe902e4…
08-19 02:19:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x6b0e3b…
08-18 23:18:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xc9f88b…
08-18 13:25:52	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 18?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x480c19…
08-18 12:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xa9d1e5…
08-18 07:28:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 18?	Yes	BUY	25	49¢	$12	0xe60776…
08-18 00:20:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xcb5ef4…
08-17 23:19:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x30a147…
08-17 13:26:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x8b7fe4…
08-17 12:48:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 18?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x4e651b…
08-17 07:29:34	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x9dd814…
08-17 00:20:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x82a96f…
08-16 23:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0xa7a1d1…
08-16 23:12:31	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	25	56¢	$14	0xe04f6b…
08-16 13:26:30	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x42e4e9…
08-16 12:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7f5714…
08-16 07:29:27	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x1869ba…
08-16 00:20:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0x74a469…
08-15 23:19:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x7aeebd…
08-15 12:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 16?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xb81f67…
08-15 12:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 16?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xb442ca…
08-15 10:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xeedbfc…
08-15 10:09:01	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6e39bb…
08-15 09:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x167c3f…
08-15 09:03:27	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x42120a…
08-15 08:57:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x33e844…
08-15 07:54:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4b13f9…
08-15 07:29:12	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 15?	Yes	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0x85344f…
08-15 04:01:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x66c7a0…
08-15 01:20:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xd56767…
08-14 23:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xba12f7…
08-14 23:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0x0ff40f…
08-14 22:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x6b1d0e…
08-14 09:49:01	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xf09116…
08-14 09:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5a485a…
08-14 08:06:52	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x0a6950…
08-14 07:29:30	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on August 14?	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x3afd6b…
08-14 03:09:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xdec9c8…
08-14 03:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 14?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xe82df6…