Stiff-Mathematics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

62.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$119

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 06-06 17:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

57% 100% +$2

Crypto

26% 0% $-11

Other

17% 100% +$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes		+33	$1	5¢	$2	+$1	06-06 17:36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		+15	$1	7¢	$1	$-0	06-06 17:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$24	14	14	+0	No	+$2	05-06 07:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	05-06 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$10	26	0	+26	Down	$-5	05-05 08:27
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$10	9,500	0	+9,500	open	—	04-24 11:25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	3	$10	9,500	0	+9,500	open	—	04-24 11:25
btc updown 5m 1777021500	1	$9	45	0	+45	open	—	04-24 09:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$5	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-24 11:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	$-5	05-05 08:42
btc updown 5m 1777021200	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-24 09:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-05 08:31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-04 08:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$1	116	0	+116	Down	$-1	05-05 08:35
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	04-24 09:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	1	$1	111	0	+111	open	—	04-24 09:30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$1	15	0	+15	open	—	06-06 17:35
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	1	$1	143	0	+143	open	—	04-24 09:41
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?	1	$1	500	0	+500	open	—	04-24 09:41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1	333	0	+333	open	—	04-24 09:19
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1	333	0	+333	open	—	04-24 09:19
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	1	$1	167	0	+167	open	—	04-24 09:41
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	04-24 09:42
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	1	$1	611	0	+611	open	—	04-24 09:20
will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	1	$1	26	0	+26	open	—	04-24 09:43
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	1	$1	46	0	+46	open	—	04-24 09:31
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	1	$1	20	0	+20	Yes	+$19	04-24 09:25
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	1	$1	33	0	+33	open	—	06-06 17:36
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-24 09:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 30?	1	$1	29	0	+29	open	—	04-24 09:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$1	67	0	+67	open	—	04-24 09:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 17:36:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x03c625…
06-06 17:36:22	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe27330…
06-06 17:35:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xf6cc4c…
05-06 07:18:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x046976…
05-06 07:16:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x51254a…
05-06 07:15:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa6bbd3…
05-05 08:45:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0xdd2a17…
05-05 08:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xb3c574…
05-05 08:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	116	1¢	$1	0x72d512…
05-05 08:31:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3cf207…
05-05 08:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa8eadf…
05-05 08:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x6eef32…
05-04 08:25:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd9c9f4…
05-04 08:24:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8ead0e…
04-24 11:25:46	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	4,500	0¢	$4	0x63691a…
04-24 11:25:22	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	4,500	0¢	$4	0x05d93c…
04-24 11:25:04	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xb6e1d6…
04-24 09:43:20	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xad458c…
04-24 09:42:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x747593…
04-24 09:41:30	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5017e8…
04-24 09:41:26	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x03dae2…
04-24 09:41:20	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x871b54…
04-24 09:41:16	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc679c8…
04-24 09:40:24	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x38a683…
04-24 09:38:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x7d6026…
04-24 09:38:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x600264…
04-24 09:37:14	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	4,000	0¢	$4	0x6bc4d1…
04-24 09:37:08	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	4,000	0¢	$4	0xe59ce7…
04-24 09:37:00	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd35f3b…
04-24 09:36:38	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb3b612…
04-24 09:32:52	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbbe8d9…
04-24 09:32:48	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xd064fb…
04-24 09:31:24	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x7657b8…
04-24 09:30:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x09e473…
04-24 09:30:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xac58ac…
04-24 09:25:50	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa228cc…
04-24 09:21:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 30?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xd75d83…
04-24 09:20:22	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	611	0¢	$1	0xff6fb8…
04-24 09:19:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x671a62…
04-24 09:19:32	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x02c0d9…
04-24 09:06:36	btc updown 5m 1777021500	Up	BUY	45	20¢	$9	0x64a685…
04-24 09:00:58	btc updown 5m 1777021200	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xf1ccc6…