Severe-Fort — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

86.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$123

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-04 08:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 100% +$1

Other

35% 65% -$4

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Politics

1% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No		+3	$2	97¢	$2	+$0	07-22 05:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will solana reach 120 february 2 8	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	02-08 02:33
will solana reach 170 in january 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	01-29 20:49
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	3	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	02-24 23:18
will solana reach 150 in january 2026	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-30 09:15
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	2	$7	8	0	+8	Yes	+$2	11-04 08:32
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	2	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$0	06-01 01:35
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	3	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-24 22:54
will solana reach 130 february 9 15	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	02-12 01:17
lal rso mad 2026 01 04 mad	2	$6	12	0	+12	No	-$6	01-04 03:07
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 21?	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	07-21 19:24
will ethereum reach 2700 february 2 8	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	02-08 08:43
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	2	$3	2	2	+0	Yes	+$1	03-13 18:26
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	07-22 03:23
will hyperliquid hit 46 in january	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	01-30 12:12
will messi and ronaldo shake hands during world cup 20260609221211643	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	07-15 18:45
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	06-01 00:31
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?	2	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	05-07 07:52
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	07-22 05:49
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	09-07 22:11
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	05-15 14:33
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	10-04 01:20
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	07-22 09:19
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	09-19 07:46
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	10-12 07:07
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-31?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	10-31 10:20
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-22 07:31
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-08-08?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	08-08 16:32
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	05-23 16:46
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	10-17 13:10
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	02-26 20:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 08:32:54	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xca2578…
11-04 02:55:40	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xe0f49a…
10-31 10:20:55	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xded04f…
10-17 13:10:48	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x8634d5…
10-12 07:07:34	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x30c1cd…
10-04 04:07:55	Will Denmark win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa6c957…
10-04 01:20:04	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x826c7b…
09-19 07:46:54	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x767a54…
09-07 22:11:24	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xe5f411…
08-22 07:31:19	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x961c33…
08-08 16:32:16	Will Vitória SC win on 2026-08-08?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd142f9…
07-27 19:38:00	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x50164b…
07-27 15:42:10	will xrp reach 1pt4 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x94bcf5…
07-22 09:19:55	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x8b90b1…
07-22 05:49:42	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$2	0x2b194d…
07-22 03:23:16	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf75364…
07-21 19:24:42	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x18837c…
07-15 18:45:46	will messi and ronaldo shake hands during world cup 20260609221211643	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x967aef…
07-15 13:58:13	will messi and ronaldo shake hands during world cup 20260609221211643	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc7028f…
06-01 01:35:00	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x541e87…
06-01 00:31:22	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xd0dbf7…
05-31 21:16:23	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6ec5e6…
05-23 16:46:02	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0xb1194b…
05-15 14:33:36	Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x62e49a…
05-07 07:52:25	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0eb764…
05-07 05:44:00	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf29af5…
03-27 21:43:01	will solana reach 120 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x71bad1…
03-27 15:02:33	will solana reach 110 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa6e9fd…
03-13 18:26:47	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1f0a81…
03-04 18:08:05	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x89192e…
02-26 20:56:12	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x80db9f…
02-26 18:14:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xa7c9e0…
02-24 23:18:10	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xadc5f9…
02-24 22:54:18	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x45921a…
02-24 21:48:40	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x30f844…
02-21 03:54:08	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2b46e4…
02-21 01:40:22	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xf51224…
02-20 23:56:54	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x90b169…
02-12 01:17:05	will solana reach 130 february 9 15	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x241bb2…
02-08 08:43:35	will ethereum reach 2700 february 2 8	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe7d5e0…
02-08 02:33:07	will solana reach 120 february 2 8	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfcba68…
01-30 12:12:10	will hyperliquid hit 46 in january	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0dd790…
01-30 09:15:52	will solana reach 150 in january 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6cca7e…
01-29 20:49:44	will solana reach 170 in january 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf8edf9…
01-04 03:07:11	lal rso mad 2026 01 04 mad	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0x7dfe0a…
01-04 01:46:01	lal rso mad 2026 01 04 mad	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x2122ca…