Impolite-Entry-Difficulty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$452

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.2%

Resolved

Trades

319

lifetime

Volume

$24.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 05-11 21:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

47% — —

Other

44% 0% $-429

Crypto

10% 60% $-23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	92	$9.2K	12,968	9,640	+3,327	Yes	$-429	05-11 21:09
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	36	$2.8K	2,815	3,974	-1,159	open	—	04-23 02:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	26	$2.3K	2,308	2,308	+0	open	—	04-23 00:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	30	$1.3K	3,573	3,573	+0	open	—	04-22 07:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	13	$1.1K	1,161	1,161	+0	open	—	04-21 21:32
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	20	$1.1K	1,822	1,822	+0	open	—	04-22 18:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$986	1,351	1,351	+0	open	—	04-28 22:02
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	15	$774	1,261	1,261	+0	open	—	04-21 11:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	4	$416	359	359	+0	Down	+$56	05-09 09:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$355	500	500	+0	open	—	05-07 21:00
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$327	200	200	+0	open	—	04-22 17:09
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	5	$326	400	400	+0	open	—	04-29 22:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	8	$315	318	318	+0	open	—	04-22 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	5	$303	279	279	+0	Down	+$22	05-09 08:56
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	2	$280	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	05-05 17:39
Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	2	$279	250	250	+0	open	—	04-29 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$256	195	195	+0	Down	+$61	05-10 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$202	203	203	+0	Up	+$2	05-10 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	2	$200	224	224	+0	Down	+$0	05-09 08:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$186	199	199	+0	open	—	04-30 22:55
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 3?	2	$184	172	172	+0	open	—	05-03 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	2	$159	196	196	+0	Down	$-41	05-09 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	5	$142	200	200	+0	Up	$-50	05-10 23:55
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	3	$109	68	68	+0	open	—	04-22 17:10
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	3	$109	298	35	+263	open	—	04-30 18:50
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$102	100	100	+0	open	—	04-22 13:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$100	79	79	+0	Down	+$20	05-09 12:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$88	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	05-08 10:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$82	96	96	+0	Up	$-15	05-09 12:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	1	$78	200	0	+200	Up	$-78	05-11 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 21:09:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	1,799	38¢	$683	0x9ff0a8…
05-11 21:00:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0x6283fa…
05-11 20:58:10	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xbac51f…
05-11 20:52:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0x7a731f…
05-11 20:25:35	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	48	35¢	$17	0xfccf80…
05-11 19:49:09	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	56	35¢	$19	0xf89cb4…
05-11 19:48:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xf56ff1…
05-11 19:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0x5bfa8a…
05-11 18:29:00	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	248	35¢	$87	0xd2ef8b…
05-11 18:28:58	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x48c83a…
05-11 18:09:57	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	308	35¢	$108	0x72e39f…
05-11 18:04:23	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	168	36¢	$60	0x18f8b5…
05-10 23:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0xe294bd…
05-10 23:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0xf810c1…
05-10 23:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x343a89…
05-10 23:52:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xffd7d1…
05-10 23:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	169	48¢	$81	0x2597a1…
05-10 23:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	195	82¢	$159	0x5d5237…
05-10 23:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	195	50¢	$98	0xdc423b…
05-10 23:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	203	50¢	$102	0xcf57ea…
05-10 23:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	203	49¢	$100	0x36b621…
05-10 18:14:42	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0xa24496…
05-10 17:14:38	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	680	35¢	$238	0xee2874…
05-10 14:07:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	325	24¢	$78	0xbc3ce5…
05-10 14:07:02	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	32	25¢	$8	0x77b6ad…
05-10 14:01:54	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0x946b18…
05-10 14:01:46	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	129	29¢	$38	0x05b214…
05-10 14:01:21	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	130	30¢	$39	0xaf340b…
05-10 11:49:43	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	646	24¢	$154	0xff4a9c…
05-09 12:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	96	35¢	$34	0x96a64d…
05-09 12:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	96	51¢	$49	0xaba858…
05-09 12:06:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	79	76¢	$60	0xc8179a…
05-09 12:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	79	51¢	$40	0x2d5be4…
05-09 09:37:03	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	983	45¢	$446	0x9d6c84…
05-09 09:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	196	30¢	$59	0x820346…
05-09 09:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x5ef053…
05-09 09:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	208	79¢	$165	0x749a7d…
05-09 09:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x2c256e…
05-09 09:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	151	47¢	$71	0xc3b39b…
05-09 09:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	151	53¢	$80	0x19419e…
05-09 08:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	95	82¢	$78	0x8df5f2…
05-09 08:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	184	46¢	$85	0xad32c5…
05-09 08:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	173	50¢	$86	0x692a11…
05-09 08:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x1468c1…
05-09 08:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	95	51¢	$48	0xe412fb…
05-09 08:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	224	45¢	$100	0x3a2d9c…
05-09 08:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	224	45¢	$100	0x0cde37…
05-09 08:43:43	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	983	47¢	$462	0x3af5fa…
05-09 08:28:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	300	48¢	$144	0x4b6189…
05-08 16:22:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	699	40¢	$282	0x9357c8…
05-08 11:52:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	321	44¢	$140	0x0b262b…
05-08 11:18:19	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0x6da277…
05-08 10:51:17	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x9bd068…
05-08 10:50:54	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0xc6c2e8…
05-08 10:50:09	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x07af1f…
05-08 10:26:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	43	45¢	$19	0xba216f…
05-08 10:26:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	75	46¢	$35	0x3f6725…
05-08 10:26:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	2¢	$44	0xcf716e…
05-08 10:24:37	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	327	48¢	$157	0xf2e402…
05-08 10:24:34	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	46	46¢	$21	0xda5ae9…
05-08 10:24:29	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	538	46¢	$247	0x381f63…
05-07 21:00:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	500	38¢	$190	0x0ab770…
05-07 20:54:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$44	0x5dc689…
05-07 20:09:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0xc3b6e6…
05-07 10:51:42	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	1,351	59¢	$797	0x3c7df3…
05-06 07:42:58	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	505	54¢	$273	0xc1e9bf…
05-06 07:42:48	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	846	52¢	$440	0x2720ab…
05-05 17:39:00	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	6¢	$120	0x5eba2a…
05-04 15:54:58	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	8¢	$160	0x616abb…
05-03 12:22:58	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 3?	Yes	SELL	172	49¢	$84	0xb57663…
05-03 12:11:50	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x4ac947…
05-02 09:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x6159be…
05-01 07:55:36	Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	Yes	SELL	767	1¢	$10	0x0436a8…
04-30 22:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	199	43¢	$86	0x02fa01…
04-30 22:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0x91956c…
04-30 18:50:14	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xc7db78…
04-30 18:33:56	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	SELL	25	27¢	$7	0x7e57f2…
04-30 00:15:54	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	298	34¢	$100	0x631492…
04-29 22:54:30	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	215	47¢	$101	0x8b29bd…
04-29 22:43:40	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0xb6bfe0…
04-29 22:36:20	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	SELL	104	5¢	$5	0xc4165f…
04-29 22:09:26	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	55	54¢	$30	0xc613d1…
04-29 22:09:04	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	90	56¢	$51	0x8ec58c…
04-29 22:08:50	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	40	62¢	$25	0x876498…
04-29 22:03:40	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x0de6da…
04-29 22:03:14	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	BUY	206	3¢	$6	0x95d811…
04-29 22:03:08	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	BUY	206	2¢	$4	0x8553fe…
04-29 22:02:48	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	Yes	BUY	245	2¢	$4	0x48cd18…
04-29 15:28:38	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	400	30¢	$120	0x518a8d…
04-29 12:56:42	Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	Yes	BUY	659	7¢	$45	0x04bb9a…
04-29 12:56:20	Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	Yes	BUY	109	5¢	$5	0x2c1770…
04-29 12:04:56	Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	250	100¢	$249	0x64ff05…
04-29 10:42:56	Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x385380…
04-29 10:42:36	Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	80	33¢	$26	0x786df7…
04-28 22:02:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,351	36¢	$486	0x348772…
04-28 20:24:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,351	37¢	$500	0x2fd6fa…
04-27 20:41:54	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,855	43¢	$1,229	0x226316…
04-24 11:41:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x41f503…
04-24 11:39:02	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	378	43¢	$163	0x294f4e…
04-24 10:09:42	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	70	42¢	$29	0x31d080…