Impolite-Entry-Difficulty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.22K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.0%

Resolved

Trades

434

lifetime

Volume

$38.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 10-25 23:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

54% 56% -$438

Politics

40% 48% -$709

Crypto

6% 46% -$72

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	93	$9.3K	12,968	13,038	-70	Yes	-$383	05-12 07:52
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$2.9K	6,061	6,061	+0	No	-$1,556	10-25 23:15
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	36	$2.8K	2,815	3,974	-1,159	Yes	+$737	04-23 02:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	26	$2.3K	2,308	2,308	+0	No	+$181	04-23 00:51
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	7	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$440	10-25 14:41
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	2	$1.5K	1,578	1,578	+0	No	-$407	10-25 21:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	30	$1.3K	3,573	3,573	+0	No	+$55	04-22 07:20
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	6	$1.2K	702	702	+0	Under	+$68	10-25 18:22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	13	$1.1K	1,161	1,161	+0	No	+$91	04-21 21:32
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	20	$1.1K	1,822	1,822	+0	No	-$116	04-22 18:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$986	1,351	1,351	+0	No	-$14	04-28 22:02
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	15	$774	1,261	1,261	+0	Yes	+$61	04-21 11:50
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	2	$770	1,072	1,072	+0	No	-$311	10-25 21:50
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5	2	$759	500	500	+0	Under	+$91	10-25 17:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	10	$698	1,159	1,159	+0	open	—	05-08 17:31
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	3	$679	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$19	05-06 07:42
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	2	$640	500	500	+0	FC Bayern München	-$40	10-25 17:07
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	8	$519	359	359	+0	No	+$43	05-08 16:21
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	8	$461	5,879	5,879	+0	No	-$15	05-01 07:53
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	15	$423	5,714	5,714	+0	No	+$23	05-02 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	4	$416	359	359	+0	Down	+$56	05-09 09:04
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	6	$402	2,247	2,247	-0	No	-$36	05-09 06:28
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	24	$389	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-01 07:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$355	500	500	+0	No	+$25	05-07 21:00
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	3	$330	1,174	1,174	+0	No	-$70	05-05 17:40
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$327	200	200	+0	No	+$7	04-22 17:09
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	5	$326	400	400	+0	No	+$86	04-29 22:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	8	$315	318	318	+0	No	+$15	04-22 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	5	$303	279	279	+0	Down	+$22	05-09 08:56
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	2	$280	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$40	05-05 17:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:15:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6,061	11¢	$667	0xd238df…
10-25 22:39:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xc53a5e…
10-25 22:38:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,266	38¢	$2,000	0x702eba…
10-25 22:33:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	786	28¢	$220	0xa2c7c4…
10-25 21:50:33	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1,072	21¢	$229	0x4a241c…
10-25 21:42:53	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,072	50¢	$540	0xdcac1d…
10-25 21:40:30	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	1,578	36¢	$571	0x6f393d…
10-25 19:15:14	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1,578	62¢	$978	0xed59c2…
10-25 18:22:03	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	Under	SELL	502	93¢	$467	0x2ab0d4…
10-25 18:18:26	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0xdf9ae2…
10-25 18:18:24	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x494db3…
10-25 18:18:24	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	469	83¢	$389	0x16d7fd…
10-25 18:14:33	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	Under	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0x45d8e5…
10-25 18:11:26	SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	307	1¢	$3	0x5aef05…
10-25 18:07:56	Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x3a6deb…
10-25 17:54:30	SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xf7ce4b…
10-25 17:54:18	SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	500	85¢	$425	0x2f4418…
10-25 17:38:18	SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	500	67¢	$334	0x0ef0be…
10-25 17:07:02	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	FC Bayern München	SELL	500	60¢	$300	0x212823…
10-25 16:47:42	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0x4cb64a…
10-25 15:45:36	Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	201	77¢	$155	0xdf3d7f…
10-25 14:41:45	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	1,192	60¢	$715	0xf7479e…
10-25 14:41:23	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xfa30dd…
10-25 14:41:23	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x4ee749…
10-25 14:41:21	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	472	60¢	$283	0xd8f3da…
10-25 14:41:20	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0xe02140…
10-25 14:41:05	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	303	60¢	$182	0x75ff99…
10-25 14:14:56	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	2,000	38¢	$760	0x1ed322…
05-12 07:52:12	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	3,397	1¢	$46	0x4dfa52…
05-11 21:09:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	1,799	38¢	$683	0x9ff0a8…
05-11 21:00:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0x6283fa…
05-11 20:58:10	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xbac51f…
05-11 20:52:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0x7a731f…
05-11 20:25:35	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	48	35¢	$17	0xfccf80…
05-11 19:49:09	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	56	35¢	$19	0xf89cb4…
05-11 19:48:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xf56ff1…
05-11 19:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0x5bfa8a…
05-11 18:29:00	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	248	35¢	$87	0xd2ef8b…
05-11 18:28:58	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x48c83a…
05-11 18:09:57	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	308	35¢	$108	0x72e39f…
05-11 18:04:23	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	168	36¢	$60	0x18f8b5…
05-10 23:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0xe294bd…
05-10 23:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0xf810c1…
05-10 23:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x343a89…
05-10 23:52:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xffd7d1…
05-10 23:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	169	48¢	$81	0x2597a1…
05-10 23:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	195	82¢	$159	0x5d5237…
05-10 23:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	195	50¢	$98	0xdc423b…
05-10 23:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	203	50¢	$102	0xcf57ea…
05-10 23:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	203	49¢	$100	0x36b621…
05-10 18:14:42	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0xa24496…
05-10 17:14:38	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	680	35¢	$238	0xee2874…
05-10 14:07:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	325	24¢	$78	0xbc3ce5…
05-10 14:07:02	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	32	25¢	$8	0x77b6ad…
05-10 14:01:54	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0x946b18…
05-10 14:01:46	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	129	29¢	$38	0x05b214…
05-10 14:01:21	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	130	30¢	$39	0xaf340b…
05-10 11:49:43	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	646	24¢	$154	0xff4a9c…
05-09 12:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	96	35¢	$34	0x96a64d…
05-09 12:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	96	51¢	$49	0xaba858…
05-09 12:06:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	79	76¢	$60	0xc8179a…
05-09 12:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	79	51¢	$40	0x2d5be4…
05-09 09:37:03	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	983	45¢	$446	0x9d6c84…
05-09 09:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	196	30¢	$59	0x820346…
05-09 09:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x5ef053…
05-09 09:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	208	79¢	$165	0x749a7d…
05-09 09:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x2c256e…
05-09 09:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	151	47¢	$71	0xc3b39b…
05-09 09:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	151	53¢	$80	0x19419e…
05-09 08:56:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	95	82¢	$78	0x8df5f2…
05-09 08:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	184	46¢	$85	0xad32c5…
05-09 08:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	173	50¢	$86	0x692a11…
05-09 08:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x1468c1…
05-09 08:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	95	51¢	$48	0xe412fb…
05-09 08:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	224	45¢	$100	0x3a2d9c…
05-09 08:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	224	45¢	$100	0x0cde37…
05-09 08:43:43	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	983	47¢	$462	0x3af5fa…
05-09 08:28:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	300	48¢	$144	0x4b6189…
05-09 06:28:16	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,874	7¢	$131	0x8dafa8…
05-08 17:31:02	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	53	28¢	$15	0x08abc0…
05-08 17:30:41	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	58	29¢	$17	0x0ce7da…
05-08 17:29:52	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	126	29¢	$37	0xb0da9f…
05-08 17:29:38	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0xff3d0d…
05-08 16:22:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	699	40¢	$282	0x9357c8…
05-08 16:21:56	Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	No	SELL	359	78¢	$281	0xe2052b…
05-08 11:52:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	321	44¢	$140	0x0b262b…
05-08 11:18:19	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0x6da277…
05-08 10:51:17	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x9bd068…
05-08 10:50:54	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0xc6c2e8…
05-08 10:50:09	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x07af1f…
05-08 10:26:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	43	45¢	$19	0xba216f…
05-08 10:26:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	75	46¢	$35	0x3f6725…
05-08 10:26:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0x48b0ab…
05-08 10:26:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	2¢	$44	0xcf716e…
05-08 10:25:47	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0xd7dbdc…
05-08 10:24:37	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	327	48¢	$157	0xf2e402…
05-08 10:24:34	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	46	46¢	$21	0xda5ae9…
05-08 10:24:29	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	538	46¢	$247	0x381f63…
05-07 21:00:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	500	38¢	$190	0x0ab770…
05-07 20:57:45	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0x9e4fff…