Junior-Rock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$134

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,373

lifetime

Volume

$11.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-23

last 07-21 17:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

58% 17% +$160

Other

33% 0% $-26

Sports

5% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes		-10	$-0	2¢	$-0	+$0	07-10 22:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	58	$1.3K	7,719	7,965	-246	open	—	04-08 19:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	24	$1.2K	568,948	2,354	+566,594	open	—	04-10 18:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	21	$779	2,412	2,412	+0	open	—	04-08 19:04
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	51	$774	110,846	0	+110,846	open	—	04-01 02:51
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	36	$507	1,985	1,985	+0	open	—	03-31 00:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	41	$463	15,836	1,880	+13,957	Yes	+$205	05-09 05:07
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$452	401	401	+0	open	—	04-09 19:39
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	9	$438	1,222	1,222	+0	open	—	04-01 20:33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	14	$408	413	413	+0	open	—	04-02 08:34
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$338	254	254	+0	open	—	03-26 03:24
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	16	$307	6,914	2,811	+4,102	open	—	03-31 20:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	40	$263	16,328	5,165	+11,163	open	—	06-04 00:35
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	23	$257	125,793	110,993	+14,800	open	—	04-30 09:07
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	22	$246	1,233	1,233	+0	open	—	04-30 09:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$229	952	902	+50	open	—	05-30 09:05
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	24	$183	2,000	900	+1,100	open	—	05-11 10:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	59	$169	2,792	2,508	+284	open	—	06-01 16:25
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	15	$162	51,508	51,508	+0	open	—	03-24 00:54
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$159	197	197	+0	open	—	04-09 12:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	20	$121	484	358	+127	No	$-35	05-08 02:06
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	20	$97	130	144	-14	open	—	03-08 19:35
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	7	$86	904	554	+350	open	—	03-08 19:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	9	$75	875	875	+0	open	—	03-01 02:16
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	25	$66	4,505	545	+3,960	open	—	05-12 00:12
mlb lad tor 2026 04 07	2	$64	41	41	+1	open	—	04-08 01:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$62	2,157	155	+2,002	open	—	06-01 03:38
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	10	$56	4,010	378	+3,632	open	—	05-04 06:34
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	36	$55	8,463	0	+8,463	open	—	05-15 02:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	16	$49	500	0	+500	open	—	05-15 10:40
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	26	$45	8,400	500	+7,900	open	—	05-12 12:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 17:58:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xc93687…
07-21 11:36:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4e3990…
07-21 11:23:19	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x585a10…
07-21 05:37:06	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x21ce45…
07-20 22:25:55	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x376292…
07-20 16:46:34	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xba2897…
07-20 15:05:07	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x31248a…
07-20 11:49:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x89aa36…
07-20 03:57:28	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x43592e…
07-20 00:54:36	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x3a01e7…
07-20 00:38:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xcefeab…
07-20 00:38:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0x3a65e9…
07-19 23:38:00	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x83f0da…
07-18 22:55:36	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xf08b23…
07-18 22:49:55	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x4e7de8…
07-18 22:49:45	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x5cef6b…
07-18 21:49:16	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0x26fea9…
07-18 21:46:07	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x33b214…
07-18 21:46:06	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x85c106…
07-18 21:46:06	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x3867c1…
07-17 10:14:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x857799…
07-15 18:16:25	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x92ca61…
07-15 18:15:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x76f36f…
07-15 14:03:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x3c2020…
07-15 13:11:10	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9149ee…
07-14 11:20:07	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x39f397…
07-14 10:53:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x930245…
07-14 10:53:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x659b54…
07-14 06:39:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xf27c79…
07-13 18:36:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x90e68b…
07-13 14:38:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xbec005…
07-12 12:50:34	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0xb4dab5…
07-11 15:21:44	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x67e307…
07-10 23:32:26	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xb570fb…
07-10 22:12:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x1908cb…
07-10 14:43:02	iran successfully targets shipping on july 10	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb69f92…
07-10 09:03:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xb9c950…
07-09 22:24:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x71f066…
07-09 12:34:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x2cd6a6…
07-09 10:27:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x05be2c…
07-09 01:02:28	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x73c959…
07-09 01:02:25	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x182825…
07-08 13:49:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x16c467…
07-08 10:08:29	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x57a869…
07-08 10:06:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xa11867…
07-08 09:59:56	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xc50b20…
07-06 15:05:29	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x33b202…
07-06 14:27:20	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x819f52…
07-06 14:05:20	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xe6f959…
07-06 13:54:01	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xa65b43…
07-06 13:53:50	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xa0b69b…
07-06 13:48:37	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xbcbc7f…
07-03 21:02:14	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x9a8f72…
07-03 16:28:37	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x81ec92…
07-02 20:40:47	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd1ac84…
07-02 20:40:46	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x75d3a0…
07-02 19:31:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd53263…
07-02 19:31:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6b91e3…
07-02 18:49:07	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x40b9c1…
07-02 18:44:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x733eb5…
07-02 17:35:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6622b2…
07-02 17:10:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x85abda…
07-02 00:33:44	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0xc9a332…
07-01 23:04:28	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x666f49…
07-01 20:29:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x83e20b…
07-01 20:09:46	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0e9353…
07-01 14:09:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xbd63aa…
07-01 14:08:26	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9be621…
07-01 14:08:26	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x069bf9…
07-01 13:53:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x585120…
07-01 01:50:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x780c90…
07-01 01:49:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	454	0¢	$2	0xfbd0eb…
07-01 00:02:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x3b949a…
06-30 23:15:50	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x7ce86e…
06-30 21:44:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xeaabe5…
06-30 21:42:31	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xc12b07…
06-30 16:48:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf0c365…
06-30 03:08:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x2b4fdc…
06-30 02:44:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x82c437…
06-30 01:28:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x05613a…
06-29 22:54:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc3c00b…
06-29 18:19:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x44ec42…
06-29 14:02:29	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x714509…
06-29 12:52:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x1d2246…
06-29 12:28:41	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd2cfc5…
06-29 10:58:17	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	240	0¢	$1	0x36de7e…
06-29 02:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0xca0686…
06-29 02:08:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0x32b19b…
06-29 01:12:44	saudi arabia bans us military aircraft by june 30	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xec839c…
06-29 01:10:19	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of june from june 23	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x20d2a9…
06-29 01:10:13	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x32f1f1…
06-29 01:09:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x9a7dd1…
06-28 16:48:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xe2e497…
06-28 16:00:16	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x742e2a…
06-28 16:00:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xee8d2b…
06-28 15:59:56	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xfd8d8a…
06-28 13:52:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x94336c…
06-28 06:34:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x22deeb…
06-28 06:19:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x004462…
06-28 03:14:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6ffed0…