Lively-Credibility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$194

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.2%

Resolved

Trades

108

lifetime

Volume

$2.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 09-01 07:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

44% 99% -$1

Sports

44% 67% -$195

Politics

12% 67% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	5	$453	234	234	+0	No	+$0	03-26 04:55
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	11	$433	222	222	+0	No	+$0	03-16 16:13
Celtics vs. 76ers	1	$195	698	0	+698	Celtics	-$195	04-25 16:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	5	$127	909	909	+0	No	$0	04-13 00:27
will global temperature increase by less than 1pt05c in february 2026	1	$115	115	0	+115	No	+$0	02-28 08:37
will nyc have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in february	1	$114	114	0	+114	No	+$0	02-28 08:35
will deepseek have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$109	110	0	+110	No	+$0	02-28 08:39
will the total number of tsa passengers for february 2 be greater than 2400000	1	$87	87	0	+87	No	+$0	02-02 09:12
will the us next strike iran on february 2 2026 et	1	$85	86	0	+86	No	+$1	02-02 09:09
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	1	$85	86	0	+86	No	+$1	02-02 09:12
amzn above 210 on february 6 2026	1	$79	80	0	+80	Yes	+$0	02-02 09:11
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	6	$17	154	154	+0	No	-$3	03-18 06:17
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$11	176	176	+0	No	+$1	03-11 19:07
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 7?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-06 09:24
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-29 10:22
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 6?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-06 09:26
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C on June 24?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-23 10:19
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-16 07:23
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on July 3?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-03 06:59
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on July 8?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-07 03:34
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 21?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-21 06:59
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 6?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-06 09:19
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 3?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-03 06:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 9?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-08 09:13
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	06-18 03:06
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 24?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	06-23 10:18
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 23?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	06-22 02:40
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on July 10?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-09 08:54
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on July 9?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-08 09:11
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on July 22?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	07-21 06:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 07:15:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x233a24…
09-01 07:12:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4a8136…
09-01 07:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0xc99b19…
07-27 08:36:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 28?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4cae0a…
07-27 08:32:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x218091…
07-27 08:28:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8d485…
07-21 06:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x3530be…
07-21 06:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 21?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2ab166…
07-21 06:55:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on July 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9ba525…
07-21 06:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd20661…
07-21 06:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x373172…
07-09 08:57:43	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on July 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbf0648…
07-09 08:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd1aea5…
07-09 08:55:31	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C or below on July 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x22c294…
07-09 08:54:23	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on July 10?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf6b83b…
07-09 08:52:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 10?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xbf0017…
07-08 09:13:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x408614…
07-08 09:11:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on July 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x20a081…
07-08 09:09:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x01f5a2…
07-07 03:38:58	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or below on July 7?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb3d1a6…
07-07 03:36:59	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on July 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe0da37…
07-07 03:34:58	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on July 8?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15b911…
07-06 09:26:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7bd4a4…
07-06 09:24:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 7?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5760a1…
07-06 09:23:50	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xfdaafb…
07-06 09:22:25	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on July 7?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x91f0f6…
07-06 09:21:07	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 6?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x14dd01…
07-06 09:19:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x5b49bc…
07-03 07:03:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6c5ada…
07-03 07:02:11	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on July 3?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x00b6cf…
07-03 07:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on July 3?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2b72b7…
07-03 06:59:47	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on July 3?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e343f…
07-03 06:58:47	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1fd829…
07-03 06:57:44	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7872ab…
07-01 03:33:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x466315…
07-01 03:32:20	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x7059db…
07-01 03:31:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0xe79683…
06-30 07:15:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x87fda0…
06-30 07:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xfdb832…
06-30 07:13:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5079ca…
06-30 07:12:28	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 30?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd1d07c…
06-30 07:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 1?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa4c6e2…
06-30 07:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3f1a18…
06-29 10:23:05	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x687b01…
06-29 10:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcbdef7…
06-29 10:20:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xcb93c1…
06-23 10:20:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 24?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf6d0ac…
06-23 10:19:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C on June 24?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x64b1d4…
06-23 10:18:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0758f6…
06-22 02:46:13	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdd1426…
06-22 02:45:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x39698d…
06-22 02:43:59	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xad403a…
06-22 02:42:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x355724…
06-22 02:41:32	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xda6d76…
06-22 02:40:23	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd67dfa…
06-18 03:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 18?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb58d07…
06-18 03:06:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xfee520…
06-18 03:04:56	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x12b482…
06-17 06:22:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb8e94d…
06-17 06:20:23	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73f7e4…
06-17 06:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 18?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1de63f…
06-16 07:25:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcd3273…
06-16 07:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb90fd4…
06-16 07:19:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 17?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5fd135…
06-16 07:17:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6301c…
06-16 07:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7f09a4…
06-16 07:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc5b7ac…
05-22 09:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 23?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd23bbc…
05-22 09:57:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3a2373…
05-22 09:51:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x592e68…
05-22 09:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or below on May 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1dcad2…
04-25 16:27:00	Celtics vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	698	28¢	$195	0xb19f4c…
04-13 00:27:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	101	7¢	$7	0x462ff5…
04-13 00:21:59	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	385	7¢	$27	0xdc3bb8…
04-12 18:37:49	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	486	7¢	$34	0x7880ed…
04-12 18:34:23	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	423	7¢	$30	0xc229e4…
04-12 17:51:41	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	423	7¢	$30	0xb15410…
03-26 04:55:43	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	187	97¢	$181	0xeff9dd…
03-26 04:55:43	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	47	97¢	$46	0xd5bf89…
03-25 07:19:25	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	65	97¢	$63	0xe75951…
03-25 07:18:43	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	162	97¢	$157	0x0920da…
03-25 07:18:13	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xd78e24…
03-18 06:17:23	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$3	0xf7111f…
03-18 06:17:23	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0xdfc83e…
03-18 06:17:23	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	SELL	73	4¢	$3	0x7277b6…
03-17 06:29:15	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0x321fc9…
03-17 06:29:11	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	33	7¢	$2	0x269d32…
03-17 06:27:43	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	89	7¢	$6	0xc8c452…
03-16 16:13:27	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xb539a2…
03-16 16:12:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0x9678c0…
03-16 16:12:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x9250f9…
03-16 16:12:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x76e46a…
03-16 16:12:17	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x4e0865…
03-16 16:11:29	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0x41748e…
03-16 16:10:53	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x68374f…
03-16 07:59:27	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	62	97¢	$60	0xed5223…
03-16 07:57:11	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x2ea6c8…
03-16 07:56:59	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xf8d9b8…
03-16 07:56:59	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x101ff4…
03-11 19:07:27	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	SELL	176	3¢	$6	0x7a653e…